Evaluating the impacts of the tropical Pacific observing system on the ocean analysis fields in the global ocean data assimilation system for operational seasonal forecasts in JMA

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosuke Fujii ◽  
Koji Ogawa ◽  
Gary B. Brassington ◽  
Kentaro Ando ◽  
Tamaki Yasuda ◽  
...  
2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. 1255-1266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathieu Hamon ◽  
Eric Greiner ◽  
Pierre-Yves Le Traon ◽  
Elisabeth Remy

AbstractSatellite altimetry is one of the main sources of information used to constrain global ocean analysis and forecasting systems. In addition to in situ vertical temperature and salinity profiles and sea surface temperature (SST) data, sea level anomalies (SLA) from multiple altimeters are assimilated through the knowledge of a surface reference, the mean dynamic topography (MDT). The quality of analyses and forecasts mainly depends on the availability of SLA observations and on the accuracy of the MDT. A series of observing system evaluations (OSEs) were conducted to assess the relative importance of the number of assimilated altimeters and the accuracy of the MDT in a Mercator Ocean global 1/4° ocean data assimilation system. Dedicated tools were used to quantify impacts on analyzed and forecast sea surface height and temperature/salinity in deeper layers. The study shows that a constellation of four altimeters associated with a precise MDT is required to adequately describe and predict upper-ocean circulation in a global 1/4° ocean data assimilation system. Compared to a one-altimeter configuration, a four-altimeter configuration reduces the mean forecast error by about 30%, but the reduction can reach more than 80% in western boundary current (WBC) regions. The use of the most recent MDT updates improves the accuracy of analyses and forecasts to the same extent as assimilating a fourth altimeter.


2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (11) ◽  
pp. 4660-4677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Penny ◽  
David W. Behringer ◽  
James A. Carton ◽  
Eugenia Kalnay

Abstract Seasonal forecasting with a coupled model requires accurate initial conditions for the ocean. A hybrid data assimilation has been implemented within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) as a future replacement of the operational three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) method. This Hybrid-GODAS provides improved representation of model uncertainties by using a combination of dynamic and static background error covariances, and by using an ensemble forced by different realizations of atmospheric surface conditions. An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is presented spanning January 1991 to January 1999, with a bias imposed on the surface forcing conditions to emulate an imperfect model. The OSSE compares the 3DVar used by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) with the new hybrid, using simulated in situ ocean observations corresponding to those used for the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The Hybrid-GODAS reduces errors for all prognostic model variables over the majority of the experiment duration, both globally and regionally. Compared to an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) used alone, the hybrid further reduces errors in the tropical Pacific. The hybrid eliminates growth in biases of temperature and salinity present in the EnKF and 3DVar, respectively. A preliminary reanalysis using real data shows that reductions in errors and biases are qualitatively similar to the results from the OSSE. The Hybrid-GODAS is currently being implemented as the ocean component in a prototype next-generation CFSv3, and will be used in studies by the Climate Prediction Center to evaluate impacts on ENSO prediction.


2015 ◽  
Vol 141 (692) ◽  
pp. 2750-2759 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Toyoda ◽  
Yosuke Fujii ◽  
Tsurane Kuragano ◽  
John P. Matthews ◽  
Hiroto Abe ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-56
Author(s):  
Jieshun Zhu ◽  
Guillaume Vernieres ◽  
Travis Sluka ◽  
Stylianos Flampouris ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
...  

AbstractIn this study, a series of ocean observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted in support of the tropical Pacific observing system (TPOS) 2020 Project (TPOS 2020) which was established in 2014, with aims to develop a more sustainable and resilient observing system for the tropical Pacific. The experiments are based on an ocean data assimilation system that is under development at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) and the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The atmospheric forcing and synthetic ocean observations are generated from a nature run, which is based on a modified CFSv2 with a vertical ocean resolution of 1-meter near the ocean surface. To explore the efficacy of TAO/TRITON and Argo observations in TPOS, synthetic ocean temperature and salinity observations were constructed by sampling the nature run following their present distributions. Our experiments include a free run with no “observations” assimilated, and assimilation runs with the TAO/TRITON and Argo synthetic observations assimilated separately or jointly. These experiments were analyzed by comparing their long-term mean states and variabilities at different time scales [i.e., low-frequency (>90 days), intraseasonal (20~90 days), and high-frequency (<20 days)]. It was found that (1) both TAO/TRITON and especially Argo effectively improve the estimation of mean states and low-frequency variations; (2) on the intraseasonal time scale, Argo has more significant improvements than TAO/TRITON (except for regions close to TAO/TRITON sites); (3) on the high-frequency time scale, both TAO/TRITON and Argo have evident deficits (although for TAO/TRITON, limited improvements were present close to TAO/TRITON sites).


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