Introduction:
Since 2000, suicide rates have dramatically increased, while deaths from motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) have declined. Poisoning has surpassed MVAs as the leading cause of preventable death, largely due to the opioid epidemic. Analyses regarding the forensic pathology of donor death and heart transplant recipient outcomes are lacking. We sought to determine how donor mechanisms (e.g. drug intoxication, asphyxiation) and circumstances (e.g. suicide, MVA) of death have affected heart transplant outcomes over the last 20 years.
Methods:
The UNOS database was queried for all first-time isolated heart transplants occurring between January 2000 through March 2019. First-time recipients were included. Donor, recipient, and procurement variables were screened by univariable logistic analysis to identify potential independent predictors of survival with freedom from transplantation at 1 year after heart transplant. A final parsimonious multivariable regression model was created, including all causes, mechanisms and circumstances of donor death. The primary endpoint of analysis was survival with freedom from retransplantation at last follow-up. Analyses were conducted for 2000-19, and stratified by decade (2000-09 and 2010-19).
Results:
34,373 patients met inclusion criteria. Median follow-up was 4.3 (IQR1.3-8.9) years. From 2000-19, death by suicide has had worse overall survival (HR 1.27; CI 1.1-1.5). A similar association is seen prior to 2010 (HR1.36; CI1.06-1.74). Since 2010, death by asphyxiation has been associated with improved survival (HR0.7; CI0.5-0.9). Death by MVA has become associated with early (i.e. 30-day) mortality (HR1.7; CI1.1-2.7), and worse survival among patients surviving 1-year after transplant. Donor death from drug intoxication has had no significant effect on recipient outcomes in the past 20 years.
Conclusions:
Since 2010, donors who died by MVA have worse early survival in heart transplant. Death by asphyxiation now appears to have a protective effect on overall survival. Suicide is no longer associated with poorer outcomes. Further study into how public health initiatives, policy, and epidemics effect transplant outcomes may improve donor selection and organ allocation in heart transplantation.
Long-Term Follow-up of a Heart Transplant Recipient with Documented Seroconversion to HIV-Positive Status 1 Year After Transplant
