Nearshore corals on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System on pace to cease growing as soon as year 2110

Anthropogenic global change and local anthropogenic stressors are decreasing coral growth and survival globally, thus altering the structure and function of coral reef ecosystems. We show that skeletal extension rates of nearshore colonies of Siderastrea siderea and Pseudodiploria strigosa across the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS) have declined at average rates of 0.01 and 0.08 mm/yr, respectively, over approximately the past century, while offshore conspecifics exhibited no significant trend in extension with time. This caused extension rates of nearshore colonies to converge with their historically slower-growing offshore conspecifics. Bleaching events negatively impacted extension rates in S. siderea but not in P. strigosa. The more negative trend in linear extension for nearshore versus offshore colonies may arise from ocean warming combined with stronger land-based anthropogenic stressors within nearshore environments. Extrapolating these trends in linear extension into the future suggests that nearshore P. strigosa and S. siderea will cease growing by years 2110 and 2370, respectively.