Application of Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis to Satellite-Observed Sea Surface Temperature Data for Past Decades

Extreme value analysis (EVA) has been extensively used to understand and predict long-term return extreme values. This study provides the first approach to EVA using satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST) data over the past decades. Representative EVA methods were compared to select an appropriate method to derive SST extremes of the East/Japan Sea (EJS). As a result, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method showed better performance than the other methods. The Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) database was used to calculate the 100-year-return SST values in the EJS. The calculated SST extremes were 1.60–3.44°C higher than the average value of the upper 5th-percentile satellite-observed SSTs over the past decades (1982–2018). The monthly distribution of the SST extremes was similar to the known seasonal variation of SSTs in the EJS, but enhanced extreme SSTs exceeding 2°C appeared in early summer and late autumn. The calculated 100-year-return SSTs were compared with the simulation results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate model. As a result, the extreme SSTs were slightly smaller than the maximum SSTs of the model data with a negative bias of –0.36°C. This study suggests that the POT method can improve our understanding of future oceanic warming based on statistical approaches using SSTs observed by satellites over the past decades.

Sea surface temperature trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test and sen’s slope estimator: a study of the Hai Phong coastal area (Vietnam) for the period 1995-2020

Based on the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope method, this study investigates the monthly, seasonal, and annual sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the coastal area of Hai Phong (West of Tonkin Gulf) based on the measurements at Hon Dau Station from 1995 to 2020. The results show a sea surface warming trend of 0.02°C/year for the period 1995-2020 (significant level α = 0.1) and of 0.093°C/year for the period 2008-2020 (significant level α = 0.05). The monthly SSTs in June and September increased by 0.027°C/year and 0.036°C/year, respectively, for the period 1995-2020, and by 0.080°C/year and 0.047°C/year, respectively, for the period 2008-2020. SST trends in winter, summer, and other months were either different for the two periods or not significant enough. This may be due to the impact of ENSO, which caused interannual SST variability in the Hai Phong coastal with two intrinsic mode functions (IMF) signals a period of ~2 (IMF3) and ~5.2 years cycle (IMF4). A combination of these signals had a maximum correlation of 0.22 with ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) delayed by 8 months. ENSO events took ~8 months to affect SST at Hai Phong coastal area for 1995-2020 and caused a variation of SST within 1.2°C.

Hybrid systems using residual modeling for sea surface temperature forecasting

The sea surface temperature (SST) is an environmental indicator closely related to climate, weather, and atmospheric events worldwide. Its forecasting is essential for supporting the decision of governments and environmental organizations. Literature has shown that single machine learning (ML) models are generally more accurate than traditional statistical models for SST time series modeling. However, the parameters tuning of these ML models is a challenging task, mainly when complex phenomena, such as SST forecasting, are addressed. Issues related to misspecification, overfitting, or underfitting of the ML models can lead to underperforming forecasts. This work proposes using hybrid systems (HS) that combine (ML) models using residual forecasting as an alternative to enhance the performance of SST forecasting. In this context, two types of combinations are evaluated using two ML models: support vector regression (SVR) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The experimental evaluation was performed on three datasets from different regions of the Atlantic Ocean using three well-known measures: mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The best HS based on SVR improved the MSE value for each analyzed series by $$82.26\%$$ 82.26 % , $$98.93\%$$ 98.93 % , and $$65.03\%$$ 65.03 % compared to its respective single model. The HS employing the LSTM improved $$92.15\%$$ 92.15 % , $$98.69\%$$ 98.69 % , and $$32.41\%$$ 32.41 % concerning the single LSTM model. Compared to literature approaches, at least one version of HS attained higher accuracy than statistical and ML models in all study cases. In particular, the nonlinear combination of the ML models obtained the best performance among the proposed HS versions.

The bulk parameterizations of turbulent air-sea fluxes in NEMO4: the origin of Sea Surface Temperature differences in a global model study

Wind stress and turbulent heat fluxes are the major driving forces which modify the ocean dynamics and thermodynamics. In the NEMO ocean general circulation model, these turbulent air-sea fluxes (TASFs), which are components of the ocean model boundary conditions, can critically impact the simulated ocean characteristics. This paper investigates how the different bulk parametrizations to calculated turbulent air-sea fluxes in the NEMO4 (revision 12957) drives substantial differences in sea surface temperature (SST). Specifically, we study the contribution of different aspects and assumptions of the bulk parametrizations in driving the SST differences in NEMO global model configuration at ¼ degree of horizontal resolution. These include the use of the skin temperature instead of the bulk SST in the computation of turbulent heat flux components, the estimation of wind stress and the estimation of turbulent heat flux components which vary in each parametrization due to the different computation of the bulk transfer coefficients. The analysis of a set of short-term sensitivity experiments, where the only experimental change is related to one of the aspects of the bulk parametrizations, shows that parametrization-related SST differences are primarily sensitive to the wind stress differences across parametrizations and to the implementation of skin temperature in the computation of turbulent heat flux components. Moreover, in order to highlight the role of SST-turbulent heat flux negative feedback at play in ocean simulations, we compare the TASFs differences obtained using NEMO ocean model with the estimations from Brodeau et al. (2017), who compared the different bulk parametrizations using prescribed SST. Our estimations of turbulent heat flux differences between bulk parametrizations is weaker with respect to Brodeau et al. (2017) differences estimations.

Validation of satellite-based sea surface temperature products against in situ observations off the western coast of Sumatra

This study validated the sea surface temperature (SST) datasets from the Group for High-Resolution SST Multi Product Ensemble (GMPE), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Optimal Interpolation (OI) SST version 2 and 2.1 (OIv2 and OIv2.1), and Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) in the area off the western coast of Sumatra against in situ observations. Furthermore, the root mean square differences (RMSDs) of OIv2, OIv2.1, and ECCO2 were investigated with respect to GMPE, whose small RMSD < 0.2 K against in situ observations confirmed its suitability as a reference. Although OIv2 showed a large RMSD (1–1.5 K) with a significant negative bias, OIv2.1 (RMSD < 0.4 K) improved remarkably. In the average SST distributions for December 2017, the differences among the 4 datasets were significant in the areas off the western coast of Sumatra, along the southern coast of Java, and in the Indonesian inland sea. These results were consistent with the ensemble spread distribution obtained with GMPE. The large RMSDs of OIv2 corresponded to high clouds, and it was suggested that the change in the satellites used for SST estimation contributed to the improvement in OIv2.1.

Immense variability in the sea surface temperature near macro tidal flat revealed by high-resolution satellite data (Landsat 8)

Sea surface temperature (SST) is crucial for understanding the physical characteristics and ecosystems of coastal seas. SST varies near the tidal flat, where exposure and flood recur according to the tidal cycle. However, the variability of SST near the tidal flat is poorly understood owing to difficulties in making in-situ observations. The high resolution of Landsat 8 enabled us to determine the variability of SST near the macro tidal flat. The spatial distribution of the SST extracted from Landsat 8 changed drastically. The seasonal SST range was higher near the tidal flat than in the open sea. The maximum seasonal range of coastal SST exceeded 23 °C, whereas the range in the open ocean was approximately 18 °C. The minimum and maximum horizontal SST gradients near the tidal flat were approximately − 0.76 °C/10 km in December and 1.31 °C/10 km in June, respectively. The heating of sea water by tidal flats in spring and summer, and cooling in the fall and winter might result in a large horizontal SST gradient. The estimated heat flux from the tidal flat to the seawater based on the SST distribution shows seasonal change ranging from − 4.85 to 6.72 W/m2.