Applying punctuated equilibrium theory to municipal and county operating and capital budgets

Author(s):  
John Kovari

Although punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) is widely hailed as the dominant theory regarding public policy and budgets, little research has extended PET to the local government arena or to capital expenditures. This article utilizes a panel dataset of public expenditures from Wisconsin counties, cities, villages, and towns from 1990-2009 to show that local operating and capital budgets fit the contemporary PET framework. However, the article also offers some discussion about methodological problems in assessing PET for local governments, and highlights the importance of differentiating between expenditure types (e.g. capital versus operating spending) as well as institutional differences between counties, cities, villages, and towns.

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Constantin Kaplaner ◽  
Yves Steinebach

Abstract Punctuated Equilibrium Theory posits that policy-making is generally characterized by long periods of stability that are interrupted by short periods of fundamental policy change. The literature converged on the measure of kurtosis and L-kurtosis to assess these change patterns. In this letter, we critically discuss these measures and propose the Gini coefficient as a (1) comparable, but (2) more intuitive, and (3) more precise measure of “punctuated” change patterns.


2019 ◽  
pp. 155-187
Author(s):  
James L. True ◽  
Bryan D. Jones ◽  
Frank R. Baumgartner

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-115
Author(s):  
Carla M. Flink ◽  
Scott E. Robinson

AbstractPunctuated equilibrium theory seeks to explain policy volatility and stability in government attention. In previous research into the temporal dynamics of punctuations, scholars found that punctuations occur in clusters – a recent budgetary punctuation increases the likelihood of a subsequent punctuation. This article examines the direction, positive or negative, of budgetary punctuations over time. Are budgetary punctuations corrective, grouping positive and negative changes? Or, do budgetary punctuations occur in cumulative trends of positive or negative changes? These questions address the heart of the theoretical metaphor for punctuated equilibrium. In an analysis of over 1,000 Texas school districts for nearly a 20-year-period, results support the notion of reactive patterns of budgetary punctuations – positive and negative budgetary punctuations pair up at a rate much higher than expected by chance. The findings demonstrate that even though it is likely to see consecutive positive and negative punctuations, they are not always fully corrective.


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