Hybrid ensemble learning approaches to customer churn prediction

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Tavassoli ◽  
Hamidreza Koosha
Keyword(s):  
Binary Classification ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Classification Algorithms ◽  
Bootstrap Sample ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Ensemble Classifiers ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Customer Churn Prediction

PurposeCustomer churn prediction is one of the most well-known approaches to manage and improve customer retention. Machine learning techniques, especially classification algorithms, are very popular tools to predict the churners. In this paper, three ensemble classifiers are proposed based on bagging and boosting for customer churn prediction.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, three ensemble classifiers are proposed based on bagging and boosting for customer churn prediction. The first classifier, which is called boosted bagging, uses boosting for each bagging sample. In this approach, before concluding the final results in a bagging algorithm, the authors try to improve the prediction by applying a boosting algorithm for each bootstrap sample. The second proposed ensemble classifier, which is called bagged bagging, combines bagging with itself. In the other words, the authors apply bagging for each sample of bagging algorithm. Finally, the third approach uses bagging of neural network with learning based on a genetic algorithm.FindingsTo examine the performance of all proposed ensemble classifiers, they are applied to two datasets. Numerical simulations illustrate that the proposed hybrid approaches outperform the simple bagging and boosting algorithms as well as base classifiers. Especially, bagged bagging provides high accuracy and precision results.Originality/valueIn this paper, three novel ensemble classifiers are proposed based on bagging and boosting for customer churn prediction. Not only the proposed approaches can be applied for customer churn prediction but also can be used for any other binary classification algorithms.

Feature intersection for agent-based customer churn prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 318-332
Author(s):  
Sandhya N. ◽  
Philip Samuel ◽  
Mariamma Chacko
Keyword(s):  
Service Providers ◽  
Mobile User ◽  
Telecommunication Service ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
User Behaviour ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Customer Churn Prediction

Purpose Telecommunication has a decisive role in the development of technology in the current era. The number of mobile users with multiple SIM cards is increasing every second. Hence, telecommunication is a significant area in which big data technologies are needed. Competition among the telecommunication companies is high due to customer churn. Customer retention in telecom companies is one of the major problems. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The authors recommend an Intersection-Randomized Algorithm (IRA) using MapReduce functions to avoid data duplication in the mobile user call data of telecommunication service providers. The authors use the agent-based model (ABM) to predict the complex mobile user behaviour to prevent customer churn with a particular telecommunication service provider. Findings The agent-based model increases the prediction accuracy due to the dynamic nature of agents. ABM suggests rules based on mobile user variable features using multiple agents. Research limitations/implications The authors have not considered the microscopic behaviour of the customer churn based on complex user behaviour. Practical implications This paper shows the effectiveness of the IRA along with the agent-based model to predict the mobile user churn behaviour. The advantage of this proposed model is as follows: the user churn prediction system is straightforward, cost-effective, flexible and distributed with good business profit. Originality/value This paper shows the customer churn prediction of complex human behaviour in an effective and flexible manner in a distributed environment using Intersection-Randomized MapReduce Algorithm using agent-based model.

scholarly journals A Critical Examination of Different Models for Customer Churn Prediction using Data Mining

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6S3) ◽  
pp. 850-854
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Customer Churn Prediction ◽  
Using Data

Due to competition between online retailers, the need for providing improved customer service has grown rapidly. In addition to reduction in sales due to loss of customers, more investments are needed to be done to attract new customers. Companies now are working continuously to improve their perceived quality by way of giving timely and quality service to their customers. Customer churn has become one of the primary challenges that many firms are facing nowadays. Several churn prediction models and techniques are proposed previously in literature to predict customer churn in areas such as finance, telecom, banking etc. Researchers are also working on customer churn prediction in e-commerce using data mining and machine learning techniques. In this paper, a comprehensive review of various models to predict customer churn in e-commerce data mining and machine learning techniques has been presented. A critical review of recent research papers in the field of customer churn prediction in e-commerce using data mining has been done. Thereafter, important inferences and research gaps after studying the literature are presented. Finally, the research significance and concluding remarks are described in the end.

scholarly journals Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunication Industry Having Data Certainty

2020 ◽  
pp. 113-122
Author(s):  
V R Reji Raj ◽  
Rasheed Ahammed Azad .V
Keyword(s):  
Binary Classification ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Evaluation Measures ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Customer Churn Prediction ◽  
Roc Area ◽  
Data Certainty ◽  
Distance Zone

Customer Churn Prediction is a challenging activity for decision makers because most of the time, churn and non-churn customers have similar features. It is one of the major concerns for large companies, especially in the field of telecommunication field. Churn can be considered as a binary classification. The classifiers shows different accuracy levels at different zones of data. In such cases, a correlation can easily be observed in the level of classifier's accuracy and certainty of its prediction. So a mechanism to estimate the classifier’s certainty for different zones within the data is needed so that the expected classifier’s accuracy can be estimated. Here the classifier’s certainty estimation is done using six sigma rule of normal distribution applied on the correlation values of all features in the dataset. Based on this the dataset is grouped into two categories such as (i) data having high certainty, and (ii) data having low certainty. Based on these criteria, classifier accuracy is estimated in the high distance zone. From the different evaluation measures like accuracy, f-measure, precision, recall and Receiving Operating Characteristics (ROC) area, the performance of classifier is evaluated. Then by applying a k fold approach the certainty of the classifier decision is estimated.

Distributed model for customer churn prediction using convolutional neural network

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Usman Tariq ◽  
Muhammad Babar ◽  
Marc Poulin ◽  
Akmal Saeed Khattak
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Accuracy Score ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Customer Churn Prediction

Purpose The purpose of the proposed model is to assist the e-business to predict the churned users using machine learning. This paper aims to monitor the customer behavior and to perform decision-making accordingly. Design/methodology/approach The proposed model uses the 2-D convolutional neural network (CNN; a technique of deep learning). The proposed model is a layered architecture that comprises two different phases that are data load and preprocessing layer and 2-D CNN layer. In addition, the Apache Spark parallel and distributed framework is used to process the data in a parallel environment. Training data is captured from Kaggle by using Telco Customer Churn. Findings The proposed model is accurate and has an accuracy score of 0.963 out of 1. In addition, the training and validation loss is extremely less, which is 0.004. The confusion matric results show the true-positive values are 95% and the true-negative values are 94%. However, the false-negative is only 5% and the false-positive is only 6%, which is effective. Originality/value This paper highlights an inclusive description of preprocessing required for the CNN model. The data set is addressed more carefully for the successful customer churn prediction.

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