Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.


Significance Nineteen opposition parties rejected the results of the October 31 parliamentary polls and called nationwide protests to press for a fresh election. They include six parties awarded seats in the election; all six refused to take up their seats and subsequently formally renounced them. That leaves the ruling Georgian Dream alone in the legislature, apart from two small parties that won six seats between them. Impacts Georgia risks following Armenia down a path of democratic implosion and instability. As foreign direct investment declines, Georgia will have to be more open to Chinese investors, harming ties with the United States. Without backing favourites in this contest, Russia will spread disinformation designed to undermine trust in democracy.


Subject Chinese investment in the United States. Significance Chinese investment in the United States has suffered a double blow from deteriorating US-China relations and restrictions put in place by China’s own government. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased rapidly until 2016, making China an important source of FDI for the United States. Since then they have sharply declined. Impacts Chinese companies will look more actively for investment opportunities in other developed countries, especially in Europe. Washington is likely to press its allies to restrict FDI from China and to coordinate policies, citing security concerns. US businesses will be negatively affected by a weaker inflow of ‘China money’. US firms will find it harder to establish links with China, which may cause them to miss business opportunities there. China’s government will provide support for Chinese firms to acquire US high-tech firms.


Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamdi Khalfaoui ◽  
Abdelkader Derbali

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the main determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the case of the Arab Maghreb countries. Design/methodology/approach We employ a dynamic panel analysis using the General Method of Moments for a sample composed of 105 countries over the period 1985–2018. Findings We show that FDI stability, market size, higher education enrolment, quality of institutions, distance, sharing of common border, and bilateral investment and integration agreements are the main determinants of FDI location. These determinants are neither general. The potential for attracting FDI from AMU countries is poorly exploited. FDI to the AMU is lower than estimated stock. The observed FDI to potential FDI ratio does not exceed 87%. France and Spain are the main investors in the AMU region thanks to historical and cultural links. The FDI from the United States, Canada, Germany, Belgium, and Japan are below what is expected. Originality/value The contribution of this paper is observed on the examining oh the determinants of the FDI in the Arab Maghreb countries. Our study demonstrate that the political stability can decrease investment risk in these countries. The administrations correspondingly require expanding their rules and strategies with union demonstrations which were at the beginning of the departure and closing of several foreign companies.


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