Comparative Study of Forecasting Models for Forex Predictions with the Impact of Different Currencies

- Foreign Exchange (Forex) is the exchange / trading of currencies from different countries with the aim of making profit. Exchange rates on Forex markets are always changing and it is hard to predict. Many factors affect exchange rates of certain currency pairs like inflation rates, interest rates, government debt, term of trade, political stability of certain countries, recession and many more. Uncertainty in Forex prediction can be reduced with the help of technology by using machine learning. There are many machine learning methods that can be used when predicting Forex. The methods used in this paper are Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Support Vector Regression (SVR). XGBOOST, and ARIMA. The outcome of this paper will be comparison results that show how other major currency pairs have influenced the performance and accuracy of different methods. From the results, it was proven that XGBoost outperformed other models by 0.36% compared to ARIMA model, 4.4% compared to GRU model, 8% compared to LSTM model, 9.74% compared to SVR model. Keywords— Forex Forecasting, Long Short Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Unit, Support Vector Regression, ARIMA, Extreme Gradient Boosting

Climate change could intensify Sahel conflicts

Significance It will increase rainfall variability and extreme events such as droughts and floods, as well as raising temperatures. These effects may trigger cascading risks to economic, social and political stability. Impacts The EU could play a key role in moderating climate effects as it shapes migration and security policy in the Sahel. The likelihood and severity of climate impacts will depend on socio-economic and political conditions in the region. Small-scale irrigation, climate-adapted seeds and traditional soil conservation techniques can help increase resilience to climate change.

Mood as medium: Reconstruction and the material speculations of “new heritage”

If the politics of aspirational construction appeal to the enchantment of infrastructure, reconstruction usually takes as given an environment of post-conflict, natural disaster, or the degradation of systems of preservation or resource management. If construction and conservation are taken as markers of continuity and political stability what does the urge to build again say about those who exert these ideas in advancement of a set of common goals? Shaped through multi-sited ethnography in Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, this essay explores the mediation of mood and its material speculations. Concepts borrowed from both the preservation of the moving image and digital forms of heritage restoration provide ways of rethinking the place of reconstruction and coming to a new understanding of its sensual and atmospheric terrain.

Assessing the Impact of the Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries

The role of oil and gas in the modern economy is undeniable. That is why oil-exported countries have a good chance to wealth. But if the economy doesn't have diversification or there is no political stability this revenue cannot become welfare for the long run. As well as the changing of oil prices doe in the world market can impact the revenues of oil-exported countries. The purpose of the research – to assess the impact of the oil price shocks on economic growth in oil-exporting Arab countries. As a methodology, there were chosen VAR models and Granger causality tests. The practical importance of the research is to predict economic growth in other oil-exporting countries. The authors came to the conclusion that oil-price change has positive impacts on GDP growth in oil-rich Arab countries and there is the strong dependency from oil prices. The originality and scientific novelty of the research connected with this argue that oil revenues have impacts on economic growth only in economic and political stability.

A Novel Approach to Improving E-Government Performance from Budget Challenges in Complex Financial Systems

Today, the risk management of budget challenges throughout the budget process is greater than ever. The process of change has been driven by new information and communication technologies, resulting in e-government. The purpose of this scientific paper is to see whether budgetary challenges have an effect on the performance of e-government in complex financial systems based on factors F1, F2, F3, F4, and F5: lack of information, lack of cooperation, lack of resources and reduction of focus, lack of budget experts and financial stability, and shortcomings and inconsistencies during the budget process. Therefore, this study aims to advance the understanding of how to manage risks from budgetary challenges by focusing on a novel approach to improve e-government performance in complex financial systems. Empirical research was based on three key issues: an approach to e-government, analyzing which variables need more attention to risk, and learning how to meet budgetary challenges to improve performance during governance. For this study, the data were conducted by Kosovo’s public institutions, more specifically at the central level (Ministry of Finance) and at the local level (38 municipalities of Kosovo). A total of 38 questionnaires were analyzed and divided into three sessions, which were analyzed through three analyses, such as factor analysis, data reliability analysis, and multiple regression analysis, using SPSS version 23.0 for Windows. The research was conducted over the years 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, while the analysis involved several processes, where some of the factors were removed in order to make the model acceptable. In this case, 21 variables were tested and divided into 5 factors. The results showed that special attention should be paid to these factors to reduce budgetary challenges and increase the performance of e-government in complex financial systems, such as (a) lack of resources (staff, funds, infrastructure, tools, etc.), (b) increasing the focus on risk management even after the transfer of funds from the ministry to the municipality, (c) the selection of programs based on priorities and not on the basis of wishes and policies, (d) having political stability, rule of law, and more control, and (e) having regulations and guidelines from the practices of developed countries as well as taking into account the opinions of budget experts. The implications of this paper have to do with only a considerable number of variables, which were taken in the study as well as only in the municipalities of Kosovo. In this case, for other analyses by other researchers, other variables can be analyzed in other countries by making comparisons.

Mediating role of trust in the relationship between public governance quality and tax compliance

This paper examined the mediating role of trust in government on the influence of public governance quality indicators (accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) on tax compliance in Africa. Cross-country data obtained from 38 African countries for 2015 was used and analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis. The study found that accountability, political stability, control of corruption, and trust have a significant influence on tax compliance among the sampled African countries, but government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and the rule of law and have insignificant influence on tax compliance. The result of the mediating effects revealed that trust mediates the influence of accountability and political stability on tax compliance in Africa. However, it failed to mediate the influence of government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption on tax compliance among sample African countries. The study offers theoretical insights on the role of trust as a mediator on social exchange relationships from the context of public governance quality on tax compliance. It also implies to the policymakers that building trust is an important mechanism through which the impact of public governance on tax compliance would be more pronounced. The study further calls for replication of its findings in other continents such as the Americas, Asia, and Europe.

Reproduction of Human Capital as a Strategic Priority for Sustainable Development of Regions

The main wealth of the country, its main strategic resource that can ensure political, economic, environmental, and spiritual growth, is human capital. Its intellectual, entrepreneurial, and productive potential, the ability to create and accumulate knowledge, implement it in the production of goods and services, develop unique technologies, invent new types of energy, materials, information, etc., is the engine of scientific and technological progress and innovative restructuring of the economy. Investment in human capital, in intelligence, in the health of the nation, in education and science, and in creating conditions for the normal functioning of everyone is a prerequisite not only for improving the quality of life of the people, but also for achieving the Millennium Goals and Sustainable Development Goals, advancing the country’s development, and its social and political stability. The research is aimed at developing theoretical, methodological, and practical provisions for the formation of strategic priorities for sustainable development of territories based on the reproduction of human capital. The theoretical basis was the available scientific works, certain provisions of normative legal acts, international framework documents, in particular from United Nations: Agenda 21 and the report Our Common Future, as well as local studies. The generalization of various scientific points of view regarding the category of human capital allowed us to establish that it is an integral part of its carrier, and therefore, it is proposed to understand as such a set of personal qualities of a person formed, developed, accumulated and preserved as a result of investments in productive abilities, personal qualities and motivational behavior of an individual, as well as the ability to develop and accumulate the necessary qualities that are in his property, which he uses in economic activities and which provides him with a corresponding income. The article substantiates the value of the category human capital for sustainable development. The territorial features of the reproduction of human capital are determined, based on which it is proposed to consider the region as space. It is proved that the reproduction of human capital occurs in the relationship and interdependence with the general periods of the life cycle of the generation, which served to distinguish the four phases of the reproduction of human capital. The architectonics of determining the strategic priorities of sustainable development of territories based on the reproduction of human capital, which is aimed at solving theoretical, methodological, and applied problems, is proposed.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.