Fit for 55 could weaken EU industrial competitiveness

Significance Further strengthening of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), combined with phasing out free allocations and introducing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), looks likely to expose European industry to upward cost pressures at a time when they need capital to invest in emergent low-carbon industrial processes. Impacts 'Carbon leakage' remains a big concern: while relocation usually has multiple motivations, it may well increase as EU carbon costs rise. Supply chain pressures look likely to push costs up both for EU industry and the renewables sector. Major investment opportunities exist in the areas of renewable energy and alternative fuels infrastructure.

Subject Carbon markets. Significance Prices for carbon allowances in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) have risen this year, reviving interest in carbon markets as a means of combatting climate change. With a report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last month calling for drastic action to slash emissions by 2030, that interest could rise further. Impacts Some 88 countries are considering carbon pricing to meet emissions reduction commitments. Growing interest in ETS may trigger a revival of fraudulent schemes around the carbon market. Renewed concerns over higher carbon allowance prices will make it harder to agree reduction targets.


Significance Increasingly demanding climate mitigation targets in some economies have raised concerns over industry competitiveness and possible relocations of carbon-intensive industries. The EU plans a ‘carbon border adjustment mechanism’ (CBAM), effectively a tax, by 2023, to penalise imports from economies without comparable climate policies. These types of measures strengthen industry support for such policies, but risk triggering trade disputes. Impacts Efforts to link different emission trading schemes will grow. Decarbonisation policies will change demand patterns for manufacturing inputs. Developing countries’ climate diplomacy will need to be coordinated with their trade ministries.


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