Prophecy of share market price by using black scholes model

Author(s):  
R. Gnanavel ◽  
O. Pandithurai ◽  
K.S. Hareni ◽  
K. Jayalakshmi
1998 ◽  
Vol 01 (04) ◽  
pp. 487-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Herzel

This paper proposes a simple modification of the Black–Scholes model by assuming that the volatility of the stock may jump at a random time τ from a value σa to a value σb. It shows that, if the market price of volatility risk is unknown, but constant, all contingent claims can be valued from the actual price C0, of some arbitrarily chosen "basis" option. Closed form solutions for the prices of European options as well as explicit formulas for vega and delta hedging are given. All such solutions only depend on σa, σb and C0. The prices generated by the model produce a "smile"-shaped curve of the implied volatility.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Di Sciorio

In this paper, we introduce a new method to compute the European Call Option price (ct) under multi-fractional Brownian motion (mBm) with deterministic Hurst function. We build a mathematical framework using a Lebovits et al. study to approximate mBm to fractional Brownian motion (fBm). As a result we obtain ct , through the simulation of the logarithmic price under mBm, using a Vasicek model for the discount factor. Finally, we compare the results with those computed with the Black Scholes model and Call market price (SPX).


Author(s):  
Arun Chauhan ◽  
Ravi Gor

Black-Scholes option pricing model is used to decide theoretical price of different Options contracts in many stock markets in the world. In can find many generalizations of BS model by modifying some assumptions of classical BS model. In this paper we compared two such modified Black-Scholes models with classical Black-Scholes model only for Indian option contracts. We have selected stock options form 5 different sectors of Indian stock market. Then we have found call and put option prices for 22 stocks listed on National Stock Exchange by all three option pricing models. Finally, we have compared option prices for all three models and decided the best model for Indian Options. Motivation/Background: In 1973, two economists, Fischer Black, Myron and Robert Merton derived a closed form formula for finding value of financial options. For this discovery, they got a Nobel prize in Economic science in 1997. Afterwards, many researchers have found some limitations of Black-Scholes model. To overcome these limitations, there are many generalizations of Black-Scholes model available in literature. Also, there are very limited study available for comparison of generalized Black-Scholes models in context of Indian stock market. For these reasons we have done this study of comparison of two generalized BS models with classical BS model for Indian Stock market. Method: First, we have selected top 5 sectors of Indian stock market. Then from these sectors, we have picked total 22 stocks for which we want to compare three option pricing models. Then we have collected essential data like, current stock price, strike price, expiration time, rate of interest, etc. for computing the theoretical price of options by using three different option pricing formulas. After finding price of options by using all three models, finally we compared these theoretical option price with market price of respected stock options and decided that which theoretical price has less RMSE error among all three model prices. Result: After going through the method described above, we found that the generalized Black-Scholes model with modified distribution has minimum RMSE errors than other two models, one is classical Black-Scholes model and other is Generalized Black-Scholes model with modified interest rate.


2021 ◽  
Vol 63 ◽  
pp. 143-162
Author(s):  
Xin-Jiang He ◽  
Sha Lin

We derive an analytical approximation for the price of a credit default swap (CDS) contract under a regime-switching Black–Scholes model. To achieve this, we first derive a general formula for the CDS price, and establish the relationship between the unknown no-default probability and the price of a down-and-out binary option written on the same reference asset. Then we present a two-step procedure: the first step assumes that all the future information of the Markov chain is known at the current time and presents an approximation for the conditional price under a time-dependent Black–Scholes model, based on which the second step derives the target option pricing formula written in a Fourier cosine series. The efficiency and accuracy of the newly derived formula are demonstrated through numerical experiments. doi:10.1017/S1446181121000274


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