This paper studies the evolution of worldwide military spending during 1970-2018. It finds that
military spending in relation to GDP is converging, but into three separate groups of countries. In
the largest group, responsible for 90 percent of worldwide spending, outlays have remained
stubbornly high. Military spending in developing economies reacts to improvements in security
conditions and military spending in neighboring countries, suggesting that further increases in
the peace dividend are possible. In developing economies, rising social spending tends to crowd
out military outlays, but this is not the case in advanced economies. With social outlays projected
to rise as developing countries look to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),
military spending could come under pressure to fall further.
Is Military Spending Converging Across Countries? An Examination of Trends and Key Determinants
