Real-Time Forecasting and Political Stock Market Anomalies: Evidence for the United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin T. Bohl ◽  
Jrg Dpke ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States


Author(s):  
Surachai Chancharat ◽  
Nuttida Thongrak ◽  
Suthasinee Suwannapak

Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud ◽  
Philipp Krueger ◽  
Augustin Landier ◽  
David Thesmar

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 120-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eseosa Obadiaru ◽  
Alex Omankhanlen ◽  
Barnabas Obasaju ◽  
Henry Inegbedion

Stock markets over the world have become more interconnected due to activities of foreign investors in search for alternative financial assets and markets to invest in order to diversify their portfolio. Stock market indices and index returns have been known to reflect linkages between different markets. This study assesses the extent of correlation of stock market index returns in West Africa and those of the United States of America (US) and United Kingdom (UK) from 2008 to 2016. The correlation between the index returns for the entire sample period and yearly samples were considered for Nigeria, Ghana, the BRVM, the USA and the UK. The indices selected for the five countries considered are the Nigerian All-Share Index, Ghanaian Composite Index, the BRVM Composite Index, the Financial Times 100 Index and the Standards and Poor’s 500 Index. Daily index returns data were used for the study and analyzed using correlation and multiple regression analysis. Findings revealed that the returns of the pairs of the United States of America (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) exhibited stronger positive correlation with each other than the other market pairs in the study both in the entire sample period and the yearly sub-period analysis. The correlations between the other market pairs were either positively or negatively weak or very weak indicating more diversification opportunities.


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