Sensitivity of Vessel Responses to Environmental Contours of Extreme Sea States

Author(s):  
Curtis Armstrong ◽  
Christopher Chin ◽  
Irene Penesis ◽  
Yuriy Drobyshevski

A comparative study of two methods for the generation of the environmental contours is presented investigating the sensitivity of the predicted extreme vessel responses to the type of the contour lines. Two approaches for the generation of environmental contours of the significant wave height and peak period are compared: the Inverse First Order Reliability Method (IFORM) and Constant Probability Density (CPD) approach. Case studies include several global responses of a ship-shaped weather-vaning vessel and a semisubmersible platform. The case studies reveal that the differences between the IFORM and CPD contours are more pronounced in the range of long wave periods. Vessel responses which are less sensitive to long wave periods exhibit less difference (less than 1.0%) in their maximum values between the two types of contours. In contrast, responses which are sensitive to long wave periods show significantly larger differences of up to 7.0%. Uncertainties also exist in the predicted extreme responses where the environmental contour and the response isoline behave tangentially. Differences between the extreme responses produced by the two contours generally decrease with an increase in return period; however exceptions exist due to the tangential behaviour. It is advised that these sensitivities should be taken into consideration when the environmental contours are used in the design.

2017 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhinav Sultania ◽  
Lance Manuel

The reliability analysis of a spar-supported floating offshore 5-MW wind turbine is the subject of this study. Environmental data from a selected site are employed in the numerical studies. Using time-domain simulations, the dynamic behavior of a coupled platform-turbine system is studied; statistics of tower and rotor loads as well as platform motions are estimated and critical combinations of wind speed and wave height identified. Long-term loads associated with a 50-year return period are estimated using statistical extrapolation based on loads derived from simulations. Inverse reliability procedures that seek appropriate fractile levels for underlying variables consistent with the target load return period are employed; these include use of (1) two-dimensional inverse first-order reliability method where extreme loads, conditional on wind speed and wave height random variables, are selected at median levels and (2) three-dimensional inverse first-order reliability method where variability in the environmental and load random variables is fully represented.


Author(s):  
Zhenzhong Chen ◽  
Zihao Wu ◽  
Xiaoke Li ◽  
Ge Chen ◽  
Guangfeng Chen ◽  
...  

The first-order reliability method is widely used for structural reliability analysis; however, its accuracy would become worse for nonlinear problems. This paper proposes the accuracy analysis method of the first-order reliability method, which considers the worst cases when using the first-order reliability method and gives the possible value range of the probability of safety. The accuracy analysis method can evaluate the reliability level of the first-order reliability method when the failure surfaces are nonlinear. The calculation formula for the possible value range of the probability of safety is proposed, and its trend as the dimensions and reliability rise is also discussed in this paper. A numerical example and a honeycomb crashworthiness design are presented to validate the accuracy of the first-order reliability method, and the results show that they are located within the possible value range proposed in this paper.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 00096
Author(s):  
Arkadiusz Szot

The article concerns aspects of safety in the process of designing continuous polymer liners used to strengthen and seal sewers and drains. The issues of safety coefficients, the variability of basic loadbearing parameters of liners and the problem of sensitivity of analytical solutions describing load-bearing capacity are discussed. The currently used magnitude of safety factors has been verified. The results of an examination on the safety index of liners for strengthening sewers has been presented in the paper. The necessity for the verification of current concepts of liner safety normalisation was herein addressed. A postulation to abandon the analogy of liners for newly constructed pipes was formulated. Calculations using the Hasofer-Lind safety index (First Order Reliability Method) were performed in some cases. A verification and evaluation of the global safety factor for sewer liners were herein carried out.


2019 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 103986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behrooz Keshtegar ◽  
Mohamed El Amine Ben Seghier ◽  
Shun-Peng Zhu ◽  
Rouzbeh Abbassi ◽  
Nguyen-Thoi Trung

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