Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Changes on Nonpoint Source Pollution Inputs Upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir

In recent years, land use upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) has changed significantly because of the TGR project. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was examined for its ability to assess relationships between land use changes and nonpoint pollutant indexes upstream of the TGR. Results indicated that the SWAT model, calibrated with the adjusted parameters, could successfully reproduce the nonpoint indexes at the water quality monitoring sites in the two rivers. The different land use change types were shown to be sensitive to nonpoint pollutants in the study area. The land use change type from upland to water was the strongest influence on changes in total nitrogen and total phosphorus. An empirical regression equation between nonpoint indexes and different land use change types was developed for the study area by partial least squares regression (PLSR) as follows:Y=b0+∑i=1mbiXi. This regression equation was useful for evaluating the influence of land use change types on changes in nonpoint pollutants over a long time period. The results from this study may be useful for the TGR management and may help to reduce nonpoint pollutant loads into downstream water bodies.