scholarly journals A Stochastic Rolling Horizon-Based Approach for Power Generation Expansion Planning

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Hanyun Wang ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Xinyi Wang ◽  
Bing Li ◽  
Congmin Ye
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Rolling Horizon ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Expansion Planning ◽  
Operational Costs ◽  
Expected Total Cost ◽  
Power Generation Expansion Planning

Variable renewable energy sources introduce significant amounts of short-term uncertainty that should be considered when making investment decisions. In this work, we present a method for representing stochastic power system operation in day-ahead and real-time electricity markets within a capacity expansion model. We use Benders’ cuts and a stochastic rolling-horizon dispatch to represent operational costs in the capacity expansion problem (CEP) and investigate different formulations for the cuts. We test the model on a two-bus case study with wind power, energy storage, and a constrained transmission line. The case study shows that cuts created from the day-ahead problem gives the lowest expected total cost for the stochastic CEP. The stochastic CEP results in 3% lower expected total cost compared to the deterministic CEP capacities evaluated under uncertain operation. The number of required stochastic iterations is efficiently reduced by introducing a deterministic lower bound, while extending the horizon of the operational problem by persistence forecasting leads to reduced operational costs.

An EPQ Model of Stock Dependent Demand Subject to Epidemic with Stochastic Lockdown Time

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 2859-2867
Author(s):  
Ruchi Sharma, Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
Production Quality ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Economic Production ◽  
Epq Model ◽  
Expected Total Cost ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
Dependent Demand ◽  
The Ideal

The model created considers the effect of the epidemic on the classical Economic Production Quality (EPQ) model for a production unit exposed to stochastic lockdown time. Expected production time is evaluated utilizing continuous probability density function. The investigation is done to decide the ideal arrangement for the production system which limits the expected total cost per unit time exposed to certain conditions. Here EPQ model is created by taking lockdown time due to epidemic as stochastic.  Machine breakdown affects the manufacturer but disaster like epidemic affects the manufacturer as well as the customer (or in other words, demand). During the production uptime, demand depend upon stock and decline in selling price, but in case of disaster (epidemic) selling price has no consideration and demand depends only on stock. The model is discussed by means of a numerical example and a case study.

scholarly journals A Novel Framework for Cost Optimization of Renewable Energy Installations: A Case Study of Nigeria

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 4311
Author(s):  
Aliyu Aliyu ◽  
Neyre Tekbiyik-Ersoy
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Linear Optimization ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Optimal Cost ◽  
Effective Manner ◽  
Electricity Access ◽  
Installation Cost

The merits of utilizing renewable energy sources (RESs) in electricity generation, especially in the developing countries, are to improve the electricity access, economic development and energy sustainability. Nigeria is a developing country with an acute electricity problem. The country is blessed with rich renewable energy (RE) resources. However, most of these resources are yet to be exploited. A look at the energy sector in Nigeria suggests that for the country to be energy sufficient, it must embrace domestic RESs in its energy mix. However, RE technologies are capital intensive. Hence, by using Nigeria as a motivation, this study aims at developing a general framework that can be used for any country or region in determining the optimal total capacities of RESs to be installed in different locations, to increase the use of RE in a cost-effective manner. The designed optimization problem aims to minimize the total cost of installing RE technologies while satisfying some predetermined constraints that include demand and supply, RE potential, area and system reserve requirement. To this end, three different scenarios, namely prospective off-grid, on-grid, and all-off-grid are introduced. The first scenario aims at finding the optimal cost of installing RESs in order to improve electricity access at each off-grid installation location (a distribution company (DISCO) location with electricity access level below 50%). The second scenario optimizes cost of installing RESs for on-grid installation locations (DISCO locations (DLs) with electricity access level of 50% and above). The third scenario finds the optimal cost of installing off-grid RESs for all the DLs. Linear optimization technique is used to solve the problem. The results show that the total installation costs of the first and second scenarios (which means having off-grid installations for some DLs and having on-grid installations for other DLs) are $97.46 billion and $114.03 billion respectively, with a total cost of $211.49 billion. On the other hand, the result of third installation scenario (only off-grid installations for all DLs), is found to be $244.33 billion. These results reveal that the combination of off-grid and on-grid installations (first and second scenarios) has the minimum installation cost, for the case study of Nigeria. As the framework presented in this study is used to provide the minimum RE related total installation cost and related RE planning in Nigeria, it can also be useful for other countries or regions considering RE planning.

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