AbstractBased on the theory of trade added value, this paper discusses the potential actual trade scale and benefit damage degree of the two countries under the background of big country game by measuring the real trade scale of China and the USA, simulating the economic impact of tariffs imposed by China and the USA and utilizing Wang–Wei–Zhu (WWZ) method to decompose the potential changes in Sino-US trade. The results show that: firstly, the size of China-US trade in terms of total value is significantly overestimated and China's overall trade with the USA in 2001–2014 was overestimated by an average of 3.06 percent, of which goods trade was overestimated by 8.06 percent. Secondly, although tariff increases can reduce the degree of trade imbalance between China and the USA to some extent, the adverse effects are mutual and global, and the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan and Canada become the main transfer countries of Sino-US trade. Thirdly, the pattern of China's final exports and the US' intermediate exports determines that China's trade interests are more damaged than those of the USA. It is proved that there is a big gap between China and the USA in the depth and breadth of China's participation in the value chain division of labor and the trade scale measured by Gross Domestic Product is more instructive than the total value.
Does Specialization Matter for Trade Imbalance at Industry Level?