Propensity score-based methods for causal inference in observational studies with non-binary treatments

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 709-727
Author(s):  
Shandong Zhao ◽  
David A van Dyk ◽  
Kosuke Imai

Propensity score methods are a part of the standard toolkit for applied researchers who wish to ascertain causal effects from observational data. While they were originally developed for binary treatments, several researchers have proposed generalizations of the propensity score methodology for non-binary treatment regimes. Such extensions have widened the applicability of propensity score methods and are indeed becoming increasingly popular themselves. In this article, we closely examine two methods that generalize propensity scores in this direction, namely, the propensity function (PF), and the generalized propensity score (GPS), along with two extensions of the GPS that aim to improve its robustness. We compare the assumptions, theoretical properties, and empirical performance of these methods. On a theoretical level, the GPS and its extensions are advantageous in that they are designed to estimate the full dose response function rather than the average treatment effect that is estimated with the PF. We compare GPS with a new PF method, both of which estimate the dose response function. We illustrate our findings and proposals through simulation studies, including one based on an empirical study about the effect of smoking on healthcare costs. While our proposed PF-based estimator preforms well, we generally advise caution in that all available methods can be biased by model misspecification and extrapolation.

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 2348-2367
Author(s):  
Peter C Austin

Propensity score methods are frequently used to estimate the effects of interventions using observational data. The propensity score was originally developed for use with binary exposures. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score for use with quantitative or continuous exposures (e.g. pack-years of cigarettes smoked, dose of medication, or years of education). We describe how the GPS can be used to estimate the effect of continuous exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. To do so we modified the concept of the dose–response function for use with time-to-event outcomes. We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of different methods of using the GPS to estimate the effect of quantitative exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. We examined covariate adjustment using the GPS and weighting using weights based on the inverse of the GPS. The use of methods based on the GPS was compared with the use of conventional G-computation and weighted G-computation. Conventional G-computation resulted in estimates of the dose–response function that displayed the lowest bias and the lowest variability. Amongst the two GPS-based methods, covariate adjustment using the GPS tended to have the better performance. We illustrate the application of these methods by estimating the effect of average neighbourhood income on the probability of survival following hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction.


2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1654-1670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter C Austin ◽  
Elizabeth A Stuart

There is increasing interest in estimating the causal effects of treatments using observational data. Propensity-score matching methods are frequently used to adjust for differences in observed characteristics between treated and control individuals in observational studies. Survival or time-to-event outcomes occur frequently in the medical literature, but the use of propensity score methods in survival analysis has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper compares two approaches for estimating the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on survival outcomes: Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) and full matching. The performance of these methods was compared in an extensive set of simulations that varied the extent of confounding and the amount of misspecification of the propensity score model. We found that both IPTW and full matching resulted in estimation of marginal hazard ratios with negligible bias when the ATE was the target estimand and the treatment-selection process was weak to moderate. However, when the treatment-selection process was strong, both methods resulted in biased estimation of the true marginal hazard ratio, even when the propensity score model was correctly specified. When the propensity score model was correctly specified, bias tended to be lower for full matching than for IPTW. The reasons for these biases and for the differences between the two methods appeared to be due to some extreme weights generated for each method. Both methods tended to produce more extreme weights as the magnitude of the effects of covariates on treatment selection increased. Furthermore, more extreme weights were observed for IPTW than for full matching. However, the poorer performance of both methods in the presence of a strong treatment-selection process was mitigated by the use of IPTW with restriction and full matching with a caliper restriction when the propensity score model was correctly specified.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Tomoshige Nakamura ◽  
Mihoko Minami

In observational studies, the existence of confounding variables should be attended to, and propensity score weighting methods are often used to eliminate their e ects. Although many causal estimators have been proposed based on propensity scores, these estimators generally assume that the propensity scores are properly estimated. However, researchers have found that even a slight misspecification of the propensity score model can result in a bias of estimated treatment effects. Model misspecification problems may occur in practice, and hence, using a robust estimator for causal effect is recommended. One such estimator is a subclassification estimator. Wang, Zhang, Richardson, & Zhou (2020) presented the conditions necessary for subclassification estimators to have $\sqrt{N}$-consistency and to be asymptotically well-defined and suggested an idea how to construct subclasses.


2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 3623-3640
Author(s):  
John A Craycroft ◽  
Jiapeng Huang ◽  
Maiying Kong

Propensity score methods are commonly used in statistical analyses of observational data to reduce the impact of confounding bias in estimations of average treatment effect. While the propensity score is defined as the conditional probability of a subject being in the treatment group given that subject’s covariates, the most precise estimation of average treatment effect results from specifying the propensity score as a function of true confounders and predictors only. This property has been demonstrated via simulation in multiple prior research articles. However, we have seen no theoretical explanation as to why this should be so. This paper provides that theoretical proof. Furthermore, this paper presents a method for performing the necessary variable selection by means of elastic net regression, and then estimating the propensity scores so as to obtain optimal estimates of average treatment effect. The proposed method is compared against two other recently introduced methods, outcome-adaptive lasso and covariate balancing propensity score. Extensive simulation analyses are employed to determine the circumstances under which each method appears most effective. We applied the proposed methods to examine the effect of pre-cardiac surgery coagulation indicator on mortality based on a linked dataset from a retrospective review of 1390 patient medical records at Jewish Hospital (Louisville, KY) with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons database.


2020 ◽  
Vol 375 (1800) ◽  
pp. 20190271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasper H. B. de Groot ◽  
Peter A. Kirk ◽  
Jay A. Gottfried

Humans, like other animals, have an excellent sense of smell that can serve social communication. Although ample research has shown that body odours can convey transient emotions like fear, these studies have exclusively treated emotions as categorical , neglecting the question whether emotion quantity can be expressed chemically. Using a unique combination of methods and techniques, we explored a dose–response function: Can experienced fear intensity be encoded in fear sweat? Specifically, fear experience was quantified using multivariate pattern classification (combining physiological data and subjective feelings with partial least-squares-discriminant analysis), whereas a photo-ionization detector quantified volatile molecules in sweat. Thirty-six male participants donated sweat while watching scary film clips and control (calming) film clips. Both traditional univariate and novel multivariate analysis (100% classification accuracy; Q 2 : 0.76; R 2 : 0.79) underlined effective fear induction. Using their regression-weighted scores, participants were assigned significantly above chance (83% > 33%) to fear intensity categories (low–medium–high). Notably, the high fear group ( n = 12) produced higher doses of armpit sweat, and greater doses of fear sweat emitted more volatile molecules ( n = 3). This study brings new evidence to show that fear intensity is encoded in sweat (dose–response function), opening a field that examines intensity coding and decoding of other chemically communicable states/traits. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue ‘Olfactory communication in humans’.


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