scholarly journals Three-month early change in prostate-specific antigen levels as a predictive marker for overall survival during hormonal therapy for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shotaro Nakanishi ◽  
Masato Goya ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Tamaki ◽  
Takuma Oshiro ◽  
Seiichi Saito

Abstract Objective To date, there are no useful markers for predicting the prognosis of metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). We evaluated the effect of early changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels after androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) on castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) progression and overall survival (OS) in mHSPC patients. Results In 71 primary mHSPC patients treated with ADT, the median times to CRPC and OS were 15 months and 92 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, a Gleason score of ≥ 8 (p = 0.004), an extent of disease value (EOD) of ≥ 2 (p = 0.004), and a 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level (p = 0.017) were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was feasible at 0.822. A 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level was an independent predictor of OS (p = 0.004). Three factors were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. A 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level correlated with a poor prognosis.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shotaro Nakanishi ◽  
Masato Goya ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Tamaki ◽  
Takuma Oshiro ◽  
Seiichi Saito

Abstract Objective: To date, there are no useful markers for predicting the prognosis of metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). We evaluated the effect of early changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels after androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) on castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) progression and overall survival (OS) in mHSPC patients. Results: In 71 primary mHSPC patients treated with ADT, the median times to CRPC and OS were 15 months and 92 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, a Gleason score of ≥8 (p = 0.004), an extent of disease value (EOD) of ≥2 (p = 0.004), and a 3-month PSA level >1% of the pretreatment level (p = 0.017) were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was feasible at 0.822. For OS, a 3-month PSA level >1% of the pretreatment level was an independent predictor of time to CRPC (p = 0.004).Three factors were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. A 3-month PSA level >1% of the pretreatment level correlated with poor a prognosis.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shotaro Nakanishi ◽  
Masato Goya ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Tamaki ◽  
Takuma Oshiro ◽  
Seiichi Saito

Abstract Background The effect of early changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels after androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) patients has not been well investigated. Here, we evaluated the effect of factors that lead to castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) progression and overall survival (OS) in mHSPC. Methods Medical records of 71 consecutive primary mHSPC patients treated with ADT were analyzed. Factors predicting the time to CRPC and OS in these patients were evaluated at 3 months after ADT induction. Results The median times to CRPC and OS were 15 months and 92 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression, a Gleason score of 8 or more (p = 0.004), extent of disease value (EOD) of 2 or more (p = 0.004), and a PSA level of 1% or more of the pretreatment levels after 3 months of ADT (p = 0.017) were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. For OS, a PSA level of 1% or more after 3 months of ADT was the independent predictor (p = 0.004). Conclusion % PSA was an important factor that correlated with poor prognosis at 3 months after ADT induction.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (31) ◽  
pp. 3944-3950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Halabi ◽  
Andrew J. Armstrong ◽  
Oliver Sartor ◽  
Johann de Bono ◽  
Ellen Kaplan ◽  
...  

Purpose Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics, and more specifically a ≥ 30% decline in PSA within 3 months after initiation of first-line chemotherapy with docetaxel, are associated with improvement in overall survival (OS) in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). The objective of this analysis was to evaluate post-treatment PSA kinetics as surrogates for OS in patients receiving second-line chemotherapy. Patients and Methods Data from a phase III trial of patients with mCRPC randomly assigned to cabazitaxel plus prednisone (C + P) or mitoxantrone plus prednisone were used. PSA decline (≥ 30% and ≥ 50%), velocity, and rise within the first 3 months of treatment were evaluated as surrogates for OS. The Prentice criteria, proportion of treatment explained (PTE), and meta-analytic approaches were used as measures of surrogacy. Results The observed hazard ratio (HR) for death for patients treated with C + P was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.79; P < .001). Furthermore, a ≥ 30% decline in PSA was a statistically significant predictor of OS (HR for death, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.64; P < .001). Adjusting for treatment effect, the HR for a ≥ 30% PSA decline was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.40 to 0.62; P < .001), but treatment remained statistically significant, thus failing the third Prentice criterion. The PTE for a ≥ 30% decline in PSA was 0.34 (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.56), indicating a lack of surrogacy for OS. The values of R2 were < 1, suggesting that PSA decline was not surrogate for OS. Conclusion Surrogacy for any PSA-based end point could not be demonstrated in this analysis. Thus, the benefits of cabazitaxel in mediating a survival benefit are not fully captured by early PSA changes.


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