Incorporating external trial data to improve survival extrapolations: a pilot study of the COU-AA-301 trial

Survival extrapolation plays a key role within cost effectiveness analysis and is often subject to substantial uncertainty. Use of external data to improve extrapolations has been identified as a key research priority. We present findings from a pilot study using data from the COU-AA-301 trial of abiraterone acetate for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, to explore how external trial data may be incorporated into survival extrapolations. External trial data were identified via a targeted search of technology assessment reports. Four methods using external data were compared to simple parametric models (SPMs): informal reference to external data to select appropriate SPMs, piecewise models with, and without, hazard ratio adjustment, and Bayesian models fitted with a prior on the shape parameter(s). Survival and hazard plots were compared, and summary metrics (point estimate accuracy and restricted mean survival time) were calculated. Without consideration of external data, several SPMs may have been selected as the ‘best-fitting’ model. The range of survival probability estimates was generally reduced when external data were included in model estimation, and external hazard plots aided model selection. Different methods yielded varied results, even with the same data source, highlighting potential issues when integrating external trial data within model estimation. By using external trial data, the most (in)appropriate models may be more easily identified. However, benefits of using external data are contingent upon their applicability to the research question, and the choice of method can have a large impact on extrapolations.

Prognostic Impact of Sarcopenia in Patients with Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

The clinical value of sarcopenia has not been determined yet in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). We retrospectively evaluated data of 70 consecutive patients with mHSPC receiving treatment with either early docetaxel (n = 42) or abiraterone acetate (n = 28) between July 2018 and April 2021. Skeletal muscle index was calculated from cross-sectional areas of skeletal muscle on baseline computed tomography (CT), defining sarcopenia as a skeletal muscle index of ≤52.4 cm2/m2. Failure-free survival (FFS), radiographic progression-free survival, and time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method, and differences in survival probability were compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to identify the predictors of clinical outcomes. Patients with sarcopenia (n = 47) had shorter FFS than those without sarcopenia (n = 23) (median, 20.1 months vs. not reached; log-rank p < 0.001). Sarcopenia was independently associated with shorter FFS (hazard ratio (HR), 6.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.57–28.49; p = 0.010) and time to PSA progression (HR, 12.91; 95% CI, 1.08–153.85; p = 0.043). In conclusion, sarcopenia is an independent prognostic factor for poor FFS and time to PSA progression in patients with mHSPC who receive early docetaxel or abiraterone acetate treatment.

Dose Finding and Food Effect Studies of a Novel Abiraterone Acetate Formulation for Oral Suspension in Comparison to a Reference Formulation in Healthy Male Subjects

Currently approved formulations of the androgen synthesis inhibitor abiraterone acetate (AA) consist of multiple tablets administered daily in a fasted state. Removing the food effect and switching to a suspension formulation is expected to improve the pharmacokinetic profile and facilitate drug administration for patients with late-stage prostate cancer. Two four-sequence, four-period randomized crossover investigations were undertaken to establish the pharmacokinetic profiles of single doses of commercially available Zytiga®, as the reference AA (R-AA), and a novel tablet for oral suspension (TOS). Four single doses of TOS (from 62.5 to 250 mg) were compared in study C01, and two single doses each of TOS (250 mg) and R-AA (1000 mg) were compared under fasted and fed (modified fasted for R-AA) conditions in C02. Plasma concentrations of abiraterone over time were measured, and pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated. Each doubling of the dose of TOS was associated with a greater than 3-fold increase in exposure. A single dose of TOS (250 mg) exhibited similar exposure over 24 h, whether given fasted (625 ng × h/mL) or fed (485 ng × h/mL). A single dose of TOS (250 mg) was associated with higher (fasted, p = 0.028) or equivalent exposure (fed) compared to 1000 mg R-AA fasted (532 ng × h/mL). Substantially higher exposures were seen with 1000 mg R-AA under modified fasted conditions compared to TOS, irrespective of prandial status (p < 0.001). TOS was generally safe and well tolerated in the study. A 250 mg dose of a novel AA formulation for oral suspension demonstrated bioequivalence to 1000 mg R-AA under fasted conditions. This novel TOS formulation also addresses some of the limitations of current AA treatment, including low bioavailability, high variability in systemic exposure and a large food effect. It may offer an alternative for patients with dysphagia or discomfort with swallowing large pills.

RNA Biomarkers as a Response Measure for Survival in Patients with Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Treatment evaluation in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer is challenging. There is an urgent need for biomarkers to discriminate short-term survivors from long-term survivors, shortly after treatment initiation. Thereto, the added value of early RNA biomarkers on predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were explored. The RNA biomarkers: KLK3 mRNA, miR-375, miR-3687, and NAALADL2-AS2 were measured in 93 patients with mCRPC, before and 1 month after start of first-line abiraterone acetate or enzalutamide treatment, in two prospective clinical trials. The added value of the biomarkers to standard clinical parameters in predicting PFS and OS was tested by Harell’s C-index. To test whether the biomarkers were independent markers of PFS and OS, multivariate Cox regression was used. The best prediction model for PFS and OS was formed by adding miR-375 and KLK3 (at baseline and 1 month) to standard clinical parameters. Baseline miR-375 and detectable KLK3 after 1 month of therapy were independently related to shorter PFS, which was not observed for OS. In conclusion, the addition of KLK3 and miR-375 (at baseline and 1 month) to standard clinical parameters resulted in the best prediction model for survival assessment.

Oncological outcomes of metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with different therapies sequences after completion of docetaxel: a retrospective study in Songklanagarind Hospital

Objective: Many treatment options of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) after docetaxel chemotherapy have proved efficacious in clinical trials but, to date, knowledge regarding oncological outcomes is limited. Materials and Methods: We assessed the oncological outcome of 4 drugs (abi- raterone acetate, cabazetaxel, enzalutamide and ketoconazole) in a normal clinical setting in a university-based hospital. Our cohort consisted of 69 patients with post-docetaxel mCRPC. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). The secondary endpoint was predicted factor associated overall survival with all sec- ond-line mCRPC treatment outcomes according to the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results: This cohort consisted of 69 patients with progressive mCRPC after docetaxel chemotherapy. Median overall survival following treatment with abiraterone acetate and ketoconazole was 25.92 and 9.59 months respectively (p < 0.05). Overall survival rates at 1-year following abiraterone acetate, cabazetaxel, enzalutamide and ketoconazole therapy were 76.3%, 83.3%, 100% and 41.9%, respectively. Multivariable analysis found that abiraterone acetate, cabazitaxel and enzalutamide significantly improved survival in comparison to ketoconazole (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Analysis of overall survival following second-line treatment of mCRPC post docetaxel in our study statistically significantly confirmed that abiraterone acetate, cabazitaxel and enzalutamide improve overall survival in comparison to ketoconazole. The study also found that enzalutamide treatment resulted in better outcomes in comparison to the other drugs.