The Spectral Source Model: A Tool for Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Seismic-hazard assessment at small scales requires the computation of realistic broad-band accelerograms near the sources. Methods that use only natural records are often limited because of the limited data set. Among recently developed methods for source modelling, the spectral-source model, based on the k−2 dislocation distribution seems particularly promising as it enables computation of synthetics for any source-receiver distance and directivity configuration. The spectral model takes into account important source characteristics, such as stress drop and directivity effects predicting acceptable high-frequency levels, whatever the station location (Bernard et al., 1996b). Firstly, some tests to explain the directivity properties of the model are presented, followed by the main results of a deterministic study carried out for the 1992 Erzincan earthquake, Turkey. Finally, results of a probabilistic study in the Moyenne-Durance region (France) are used to demonstrate the ability of this method to produce seismic-hazard maps and spectra linked to a specific return period.

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A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory—part I: the area source model

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1007/s10518-016-0005-6 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. 3367-3397 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Karin Sesetyan ◽

Mine B. Demircioglu ◽

Tamer Y. Duman ◽

Tolga Çan ◽

Senem Tekin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Source Model ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Area Source ◽

Area Source Model

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Recent Destructive Earthquakes and International Collaboration for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2013.p1001 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 8 (5) ◽

pp. 1001-1007 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ken Xiansheng Hao ◽

◽

Hiroyuki Fujiwara

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

East Asia ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Tohoku Earthquake ◽

Statistical Seismology ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Data Set ◽

2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽

Earthquake Model

Recent destructive earthquakes in East Asia, such as the 1976 Tangshan, 1995 Kobe, 1999 Chi-Chi, 2008 Wenchuan, 2010 Yushu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2013 Ya’an-Lushan earthquakes, claimed one third of a million lives. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (SHA) can help define earthquake zones and guide urban planning and construction based on statistical seismology, geophysics, and geodesy. The National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) has promoted SHA as a national mission in Japan over the last 10 years, and as an international cooperation with neighboring countries since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. We initiated the China-Japan-Korea SHA strategic cooperative program for the next generation map supported by MOST-JST-NRF in 2010. We also initiated collaborative programs with the committee of the Taiwan Earthquake Model from 2012, as well as with many other parties. Consequently, the NIED, with its highly valuated SHA methodologies and technologies, proudly joined the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM). Our international activities in East Asia could become one of the GEMRegional Programs. By examination of SHA maps using the Tohoku earthquake data set, some improvements and reconsiderations are made.

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Bayankhongor aimag of Mongolia

Proceedings of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences ◽

10.5564/pmas.v59i1.1137 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 43-56

Author(s):

Ankhtsetseg D ◽

Odonbaatar Ch ◽

Mоngоnsuren D ◽

Bayarsaikhan E ◽

Dembereldulam M

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Central Asia ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Active Regions ◽

Source Model ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Probability Of Exceedance ◽

Area Source

Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity is due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates, which has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events.The GSHAP project, aiming at hazard assessment on a global scale, indicates that the territory of Bayankhongor aimag, Mongolia, in Central Asia is characterized by maximum bedrock peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as medium as in range of 80 to 160cm/s2. In this study, which has been carried out within the framework of the project “Seismic microzoning map of center of 12 aimags, Mongolia”, the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Mongolia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth <50 km) seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects) earthquake catalogue for the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the Open Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (ODPSHA), which is based on the Cornell methodology. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches 93-98 cm/s2 , which in intensity corresponds to VII in MSK64 scale in the centre of Bayankhongor aimag for 475 years mean return period.

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Comparing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps with ShakeMap Footprints for Indonesia

Seismological Research Letters ◽

10.1785/0220190171 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 91 (2A) ◽

pp. 847-858

Author(s):

Adrien Pothon ◽

Philippe Gueguen ◽

Sylvain Buisine ◽

Pierre-Yves Bard

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Selection Process ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Maps ◽

Data Set ◽

Seismic Hazard Maps ◽

The Past

Abstract A number of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) maps have been released for Indonesia over the past few decades. This study proposes a method for testing PSHA maps using U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap catalog considered as historical seismicity for Indonesia. It consists in counting the number of sites on rock soil for which the independent maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the ShakeMap footprints between May 1968 and May 2018 exceeds the thresholds from the PSHA map studied and in comparing this number with the probability of exceedance given in the PSHA map. Although ShakeMap footprints are not as accurate and complete as continuous recorded ground motion, the spatially distributed ShakeMap covers 7,642,261 grid points, with a resolution of 1 km2, compensating the lack of instrumental data over this period. This data set is large enough for the statistical analysis of independent PGA values on rock sites only. To obtain the subdata set, we develop a new selection process and a new comparison method, considering the uncertainty of ShakeMap estimates. The method is applied to three PSHA maps (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program [GSHAP], Global Assessment Report [GAR], and Standar Nasional Indonesia [SNI2017]) for a selection of sites first located in Indonesia and next only in the western part of the country. The results show that SNI2017 provides the best fit with seismicity over the past 50 yr for both sets of rock sites (whole country and western part only). At the opposite, the GAR and GSHAP seismic hazard maps only fit the seismicity observed for the set of rock sites in western Indonesia. This result indicates that this method can only conclude on the spatial scale of the analysis and cannot be extrapolated to any other spatial resolution.

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