How well can we predict earthquake site response so far? Site-specific approaches

Earthquake site responses or site effects are the modifications of surface geology to seismic waves. How well can we predict the site effects (average over many earthquakes) at individual sites so far? To address this question, we tested and compared the effectiveness of different estimation techniques in predicting the outcrop Fourier site responses separated using the general inversion technique (GIT) from recordings. Techniques being evaluated are (a) the empirical correction to the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio of earthquakes (c-HVSR), (b) one-dimensional ground response analysis (GRA), and (c) the square-root-impedance (SRI) method (also called the quarter-wavelength approach). Our results show that c-HVSR can capture significantly more site-specific features in site responses than both GRA and SRI in the aggregate, especially at relatively high frequencies. c-HVSR achieves a “good match” in spectral shape at ∼80%–90% of 145 testing sites, whereas GRA and SRI fail at most sites. GRA and SRI results have a high level of parametric and/or modeling errors which can be constrained, to some extent, by collecting on-site recordings.

2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude criteria that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model that accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historical seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are calculated using western US and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for 8 site classes. For most sites the new analysis results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are the highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai’i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.

NGA-Subduction research program

This article summarizes the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Subduction (NGA-Sub) project, a major research program to develop a database and ground motion models (GMMs) for subduction regions. A comprehensive database of subduction earthquakes recorded worldwide was developed. The database includes a total of 214,020 individual records from 1,880 subduction events, which is by far the largest database of all the NGA programs. As part of the NGA-Sub program, four GMMs were developed. Three of them are global subduction GMMs with adjustment factors for up to seven worldwide regions: Alaska, Cascadia, Central America and Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, South America, and Taiwan. The fourth GMM is a new Japan-specific model. The GMMs provide median predictions, and the associated aleatory variability, of RotD50 horizontal components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at oscillator periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. Three GMMs also quantified “within-model” epistemic uncertainty of the median prediction, which is important in regions with sparse ground motion data, such as Cascadia. In addition, a damping scaling model was developed to scale the predicted 5%-damped PSA of horizontal components to other damping ratios ranging from 0.5% to 30%. The NGA-Sub flatfile, which was used for the development of the NGA-Sub GMMs, and the NGA-Sub GMMs coded on various software platforms, have been posted for public use.

Ergodic site response model for subduction zone regions

We present an ergodic site response model with regional adjustments for use with subduction zone ground-motion models. The model predicts site amplification of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5% damped pseudo-spectral accelerations of the orientation-independent horizonal component for oscillator periods from 0.01 to 10 s. The model depends on the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m ( VS30), basin depth, and region and is independent of subduction earthquake type. It has three components: a linear site-amplification term in the form of VS30-scaling, a nonlinear term that depends on VS30 and shaking intensity parameterized by peak ground acceleration at the reference-rock velocity condition of 760 m/s, and a basin sediment-depth term for Japan and Cascadia conditioned on the depth to the 2.5 km/s shear-wave velocity isosurface ( Z2.5). A global VS30-scaling model is provided along with regional adjustments for Japan, Taiwan, South America, Alaska, and Cascadia. The nonlinear model is global, with a functional form that has often been used to fit nonlinear responses inferred from simulations, but here we calibrate it empirically. Relative to a prior model for shallow earthquakes in active tectonic regions, our subduction zone global VS30-scaling is comparable at short periods (<1.0 s) but weaker at long periods, while the nonlinear site response is generally less pronounced but extends to lower levels of shaking. Basin depth models are conditioned on the difference of the actual Z2.5 and a VS30-conditioned mean Z2.5. Sites with positive differential depths have increased long-period site responses and decreased short-period responses, with the opposite occurring for negative differential depths.

Structural performance of buildings during the 30 November 2018 M7.1 Anchorage, Alaska earthquake

Southcentral Alaska, the most populous region in Alaska, was violently shaken by a Mw 7.1 earthquake on 30 November 2018 at 8:29 am Alaska Standard Time. This was the largest magnitude earthquake in the United States close to a population center in over 50 years. The earthquake was 46 km deep, and the epicenter was 12 km north of Anchorage and 19 km west of Eagle River. The event affected some 400,000 residents, causing widespread damage in highways, nonstructural components, non-engineered and older buildings, and structures on poorly compacted fills. A few isolated serious injuries and partial collapses took place. Minor structural damage to code-conforming buildings was observed. A significant percentage of the structural damage was due to geotechnical failures. Building stock diversity allows use of the region as a large test bed to observe how local building practices affected earthquake damage levels. The prevailing peak ground acceleration (PGA) was 0.2–0.32 g, causing shaking intensity at most sites of 50%–60% of the ASCE 7-16 design basis earthquake acceleration. Thus, the seismic vulnerability of building stock in the region was not truly tested. Reinforced concrete buildings had minor structural damage, except in a few cases of shear wall and transfer girder shear cracking. Fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP)-retrofitted buildings performed satisfactorily. Concrete-masonry-unit (CMU) masonry buildings experienced serious structural damage in many cases, including relatively newer buildings. The earthquake caused widespread structural damage in non-engineered buildings (primarily wood and CMU masonry) that exist widely in the region, especially in Eagle River. Of these, non-engineered single-family wood buildings had the heaviest structural damage. No structural damage could be observed in steel buildings. The aftershock sequence, which included 7 M5+ and 50 M4+ events, exacerbated structural damage in all types of buildings. The present study is based on the EERI field reconnaissance mission conducted by the authors following the earthquake. Based on the observed damage and structural performance, seismic risk mitigation recommendations are suggested.

Self-centering seismic-resistant structures: Historical overview and state-of-the-art

This state-of-the-art review provides an overview of the evolution of self-centering structures from early historical structures that inherently exhibited a recentering response to modern systems engineered for enhanced seismic resilience. From the early research investigations that were conducted since the 1960s, to the sharp increase of interest in this topic over the last two decades, self-centering seismic-resistant structures that can mitigate both damage and residual drifts following major earthquakes have seen significant advances. These systems achieve the intended self-centering response by either allowing for the rocking of primary structural elements in a controlled manner, commonly coupled with mechanical restraints and energy dissipation devices, or by including self-centering devices as main structural or supplemental structural members. To better explain the concepts and the underlying mechanics governing their seismic response, detailed schematic illustrations were developed in this article, highlighting the fundamentals behind each of these systems. This article covers a historical overview, presents the state of the research and of the art, discusses general design challenges and practical considerations, and concludes with future research needs to advance the development and broader application of self-centering systems in real structures.

Mobile home fragility curves

Seismic fragility of mobile (manufactured) homes is investigated. Compiled is a catalog of home performance in past earthquakes. Intensity measures causing damage are characterized by peak ground acceleration and velocity. Damage is defined as when the home is knocked out of position necessitating repairs and re-installation. Four categories of support conditions are identified: unanchored, tie-downs, proprietary systems, and perimeter wall foundations. Suggested fragility curves for unanchored homes and homes with tie-downs are derived from computer simulations. As a benchmark, a fragility curve for proprietary and perimeter wall systems is taken as the same as that for conventional wood homes. Shortcomings of using tie-down and proprietary systems in high seismic zones are discussed. The suggested fragility curves account for the different categories of support conditions thereby representing advancement to those in the Hazus national standardized risk modeling methodology.

Relational database used for ground-motion model development in the NGA-sub project

The Next-Generation Attenuation for subduction zone regions project (NGA-Sub) has developed data resources and ground motion models for global subduction zone regions. Here we describe the NGA-Sub database. To optimize the efficiency of data storage, access, and updating, data resources for the NGA-Sub project are organized into a relational database consisting of 20 tables containing data, metadata, and computed quantities (e.g. intensity measures, distances). A database schema relates fields in tables to each other through a series of primary and foreign keys. Model developers and other users mostly interact with the data through a flatfile generated as a time-stamped output of the database. We describe the structure of the relational database, the ground motions compiled for the project, and the means by which the data can be accessed. The database contains 71,340 three-component records from 1880 earthquakes from seven global subduction zone regions: Alaska, Central America and Mexico, Cascadia, Japan, New Zealand, South America, and Taiwan. These data were processed on a component-specific basis to minimize noise effects in the data and remove baseline drifts. Provided ground motion intensity measures include peak acceleration, peak velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations for a range of oscillator periods.

Inelastic seismic shear amplification due to higher mode effects in reinforced concrete coupled walls

Recent numerical and experimental studies on reinforced concrete shear walls and coupled walls have shown shear forces greater than expected when the walls are subjected to earthquakes at an intensity level that does not exceed the design values. This amplification of shear forces is attributable to the effects of higher modes after the walls develop a plastic hinge at the base. These effects have been recently recognized in North American design codes for cantilever walls and is currently neglected in the design of ductile coupled walls. As part of the research program described in this article, a parametric study was carried out on coupled wall systems to identify the geometric and physical parameters having the greatest influence on the seismic shear amplification. Using the results of this parametric study, an extensive numerical study was conducted on classes of ductile coupled walls subjected to seismic excitation representative of Western and Eastern Canada. This extensive study led to the establishment of shear amplification prediction equations for use in building codes.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for spatially distributed infrastructure considering the correlation of spectral acceleration across spectral periods

Regional seismic hazard analyses are necessary to assess the infrastructure performance within a region and ensure that mitigation funds are utilized effectively by probabilistically considering the suite of potential earthquake events. This research aims to efficiently represent the regional seismic hazard through a compact set of seismic inputs in the form of spectral acceleration (SA) maps by considering the spatial cross-correlation of SA at a wide period range. The SA maps can then be used to probabilistically estimate the performance of a portfolio of spatially distributed structures with different fundamental periods. Efficient representation reduces the number of required SA maps to decrease the computational demands of the infrastructure performance analysis in the subsequent steps. The added dimension of the between-period spatial SA correlation exacerbates the challenge of effectively simulating and selecting a set of SA maps to reproduce the hazard curves particularly at long return periods. Two approaches are proposed to generate an optimal set of SA maps: (a) a simulation-based methodology that uses state-of-the-art variance reduction methods and (b) a simplified methodology that aims to increase the ease of use and reduce the computational demands of the simulation. The two approaches are implemented and compared using the city of San Francisco as a case study to illustrate their feasibility. The simplified approach increases the scalability of the methodology to larger study areas at the expense of reduced accuracy in terms of seismic hazard curve and SA correlation errors.