The manner in which the research and development efforts of different groups, each focused on a different aspect of a single complex computing artifact (e.g., database), evolve and mutually support the development of the artifact as a whole has fascinated researchers, economists, and philosophers of science alike. In this paper we propose the Aggregate General Design Cycle (AGDC), an aggregated form of the General Design Cycle (GDC), as a predictive model of the evolution over time of a computing research community of interest. We begin by demonstrating that the GDC accurately depicts the progress of any individual research effort. We then propose that multiple research and development efforts on a theme, even when conducted by nominally distinct groups (i.e. computer science cf. information systems; academics cf. practitioners) are predicted by the AGDC. We provide support for the proposal through a longitudinal meta-bibliographic study of database research.
