The Geography of Racially Polarized Voting: Calibrating Surveys at the District Level

Voting in the United States has long been known to divide sharply along racial lines, and the degree of racially polarized voting evidently varies across regions, and even within a state. Researchers have further studied variation in racially polarized voting using aggregate data techniques, but these methods assume that variation in individual preferences is not related to geography. This paper presents estimates based on individual level data of the extent and variation in racially polarized voting across US Congressional Districts. Leveraging large, geocoded sample surveys, we develop an improved method for measuring racial voting patterns at the Congressional District-level. The method overcomes challenges in previous attempts of survey modeling by allowing survey data to inform the synthetic population model. This method has sufficient power to provide precise estimates of racial polarization even when survey data are sparse. We find that variation across districts but within states explains roughly 20 percent of the total variation; states explain a further 20 percent of the total variation, and 55 percent of the variation is simply national differences between races. The Deep South still has the highest racial polarization between White and Black voters, but some Midwestern congressional districts exhibit comparably high polarization. The polarization between White and Hispanic voters is far more variable than between Black and White voters.

Governor's plan for presidential run affects Florida

Significance DeSantis is widely seen as a leading contender for the 2024 Republican nomination. This position reflects the fact that, while closely divided in general elections, Florida’s demographics provide an opportunity for different Republican factions to compete. Impacts The position of DeSantis on mask and vaccination requirements will bring him into greater conflict with the Biden administration. Turnout for midterm elections in 2018 was 63%, sharply up on 51% in 2014, and should remain high in 2022. Florida is likely to see a major political fight over re-drawing the boundaries of its congressional districts for 2022.

Taunt Terms: U.S.

More than a few of the many new words coined by exuberant Americans were created as insults. Like their counterparts abroad these terms lost their sting over time and became mainstream terminology. Gerrymander is one. By combining the last syllable of “salamander” with the surname of Massachusetts governor Elbridge Gerry gerrymander was meant to make fun of the convoluted Congressional districts drawn in 1812 while Gerry was the governor of Massachusetts. Hoosier was used to ridicule backwoods immigrants new to the new state of Indiana, but in time became the official, non-pejorative way to refer to Indianans. Before it became a name for underwear bloomer was introduced to deride American feminists such as Amelia Bloomer who, during the mid-nineteenth century, wore a type of garb that featured loose trousers worn beneath a billowy skirt. Hurling such insults inadvertently added words to the English language.

Geographic Distribution of Foot and Ankle Orthopedic Surgeons Throughout the United States

Background: At present, the geographic distribution of orthopedic foot and ankle (OFA) surgeons in the United States is poorly defined. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the geographic distribution of OFA surgeons in the United States. We hypothesize that there will be differences in OFA surgeon density throughout the United States and that economic factors may play a role in access to subspecialty OFA care. Methods: A current membership list was obtained from the American Orthopaedic Foot & Ankle Society (AOFAS). Active members were categorized relative to states and US congressional districts, using publicly available census data. The relationship between income and surgeon density was determined using a Pearson correlation. Results: We identified a list of 1103 active AOFAS members. There was an average of 0.38 and 0.40 OFA surgeons per 100 000 people in each state and congressional district, respectively. We found a weak negative relationship demonstrating that regions with higher levels of poverty had fewer OFA surgeons, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of –0.14 (95% CI: –0.24, –0.04), P = .008. Conclusion: There is wide geographic variation of OFA surgeon density throughout the United States. Regions with higher levels of poverty were weakly associated with decreased population density of OFA surgeons compared to regions with lower poverty levels. Understanding these trends may aid in developing both recruitment and referral strategies for complex foot and ankle care in underserved regions. Level of Evidence: Level V.

Tariffs As Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US–China Trade War

In response to President Trump instigating conflict over trade with China, the Chinese government countered by issuing tariffs on thousands of products worth over USD 110 billion in US exports. We explore whether China's tariffs reflected a strategy to apply counterpressure by hurting political support for the president's party. We also assess the strategy's impact on the 2018 midterm elections and examine the mechanism underlying the resulting electoral shift. We find strong evidence that Chinese tariffs systematically targeted US goods that had production concentrated in Republican-supporting counties, particularly when located in closely contested Congressional districts. This apparent strategy was successful: targeted areas were more likely to turn against Republican candidates. Using data on campaign communications, local search patterns online, and an original national survey, we find evidence that voters residing in areas affected by the tariffs were more likely to learn about the trade war, recognize its adverse impact, and assign the Republicans responsibility for the escalating dispute. These findings demonstrate how domestic political institutions can be a source of vulnerability in interstate disputes.

Incidence of Firearm Suicide in US Congressional Districts Estimated from County-Level Underlying Cause of Death Reports

Background: Suicide is the most common form of violent death in the US and firearms are the most common means of suicide, contributing to half of all suicide deaths. The focus of this research is calculating suicide and firearm suicide counts and rates for each congressional district in order to highlight the types of legislation and local programs that can address this public health crisis in each district.Methods: Counts of suicides and firearm suicides for the congressional districts were calculated by weighting county counts as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the five-year period 2014 to 2018 by the proportion of the county population allocated to the congressional district for that population group as available from the Census Bureau’s Summary File for the 116th Congress. The weighted counts were then summed over the counties in the congressional district. Results: There are 52 firearm suicides on average per congressional district each year, yet there is tremendous district-level variation across the country and even within states. Seventeen districts—in Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Washington, DC—have 10 or fewer firearm suicides each year. On the other hand, 11 districts—in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Tennessee—have over 100 gun suicides each year. 88 percent of the difference in congressional district-level suicide rates is explained by differences in firearm suicide. The proportion of suicides by firearm out of all suicides ranges from 6% to 73% across districts. Rates of suicide by other means were similar across rural and urban districts, while rates of firearm suicide were on average 5 times higher in rural districts (1.77 in urban compared to 10.60 per 100,000 population in rural). Conclusions: Understanding the incidence of firearm suicide in US congressional districts can provide tools for holding elected officials accountable for taking steps-- including research funding, key policies, storage practices, public education initiatives -- to protect the lives of their constituents by preventing firearm suicide.