Adapting Early Warning Systems to Global Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (1) ◽  
pp. 2876
Author(s):  
Kristie L Ebi*

Subject Food security and climate change challenges in the Sahel. Significance Despite improved cereal output in 2018-19, many communities have entered the annual ‘lean season’ in a fragile position. Climate change is slowly destabilising the regional balance, while spreading insecurity prevents the region from realising the full benefit of its sustained development efforts. Impacts At 17.7% above the five-year average, the 2018-19 cereal harvest offers a good basis to meet needs during the May-September lean season. Local shortages should be spotted by robust regional early warning systems, with emergency grain stocks and donors ready to step in. Pastoralist populations are in a particularly vulnerable position, as insecurity affects access to many important grazing zones.


Author(s):  
Timothy J Bartley ◽  
Kevin S McCann ◽  
Carling Bieg ◽  
Kévin Cazelles ◽  
Monica Granados ◽  
...  

Climate change is asymmetrically altering environmental conditions in space, from local to global scales, creating novel heterogeneity. Here, we argue that this novel heterogeneity will drive mobile generalist consumer species to rapidly respond through their behavior in ways that broadly and predictably reorganize—or rewire—food webs. We use existing theory and data from diverse ecosystems to show that the rapid behavioral responses of generalists to climate change rewire food webs in two distinct and critical ways. Firstly, mobile generalist species are redistributing into systems where they were previously absent and foraging on new prey, resulting in topological rewiring—a change in the patterning of food webs due to the addition or loss of connections. Secondly, mobile generalist species, which navigate between habitats and ecosystems to forage, will shift their relative use of differentially altered habitats and ecosystems, causing interaction strength rewiring—changes that reroute energy and carbon flows through existing food web connections and alter the food web’s interaction strengths. We then show that many species with shared traits can exhibit unified aggregate behavioral responses to climate change, which may allow us to understand the rewiring of whole food webs. We end by arguing that generalists’ responses present a powerful and underutilized approach to understand and predict the consequences of climate change and may serve as much-needed early warning signals for monitoring the looming impacts of global climate change on entire ecosystems.


2020 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 109623 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Linares ◽  
G.S. Martinez ◽  
V. Kendrovski ◽  
J. Diaz

2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-181
Author(s):  
Boris A. Revich ◽  
V. V. Maleev ◽  
M. D. Smirnova ◽  
N. Yu. Pshenichnaya

The Paris climate agreement confirmed that climate change continues to pose a global concern and required all Parties to put forward their best efforts to protect public health. In the conditions of global warming, climate-induced risks gained importance as a public health hazard and confirmed the need to develop national action plans. Such plans shall be developed locally, taking into account the requirements of the National Action Plan for adaptation to health risks induced by changing climate. This manuscript presents the data on climate-dependent mortality. The global annual burden of excess deaths attributed to climate change is over 150,000 cases, which leads to a loss of 5.5 million years of productive life per year. Early warning systems have been adopted in many countries, with the goal to prevent heat-related deaths. If such a system were implemented in Moscow, eleven thousand excess deaths could have been avoided during the extremely hot summer of 2010. Heat watch warning systems are based on scientific data on heat thresholds. On the days with temperatures above such thresholds, climate-dependent mortality increases. Such thresholds have been established in the environmental epidemiology studies conducted in Moscow, Northern and Southern cities, the cities with continental and monsoon climates. The experience of implementation of early warning systems during extreme weather events was analyzed. The relative powers of bioclimatic indices as predictors of daily mortality rates during extreme weather events were compared. To prevent complications of cardiovascular diseases, a set of protective measures was proposed which included cardiology medications, recommendations on personal behavior and drinking habits during extreme heat, and other measures. The risks and examples of occurrence and northward propagation of climate-dependent infectious diseases such as Siberian anthrax, West Nile fever, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, and dirofilariasis, were described.


Author(s):  
Timothy J Bartley ◽  
Kevin S McCann ◽  
Carling Bieg ◽  
Kévin Cazelles ◽  
Monica Granados ◽  
...  

Climate change is asymmetrically altering environmental conditions in space, from local to global scales, creating novel heterogeneity. Here, we argue that this novel heterogeneity will drive mobile generalist consumer species to rapidly respond through their behavior in ways that broadly and predictably reorganize—or rewire—food webs. We use existing theory and data from diverse ecosystems to show that the rapid behavioral responses of generalists to climate change rewire food webs in two distinct and critical ways. Firstly, mobile generalist species are redistributing into systems where they were previously absent and foraging on new prey, resulting in topological rewiring—a change in the patterning of food webs due to the addition or loss of connections. Secondly, mobile generalist species, which navigate between habitats and ecosystems to forage, will shift their relative use of differentially altered habitats and ecosystems, causing interaction strength rewiring—changes that reroute energy and carbon flows through existing food web connections and alter the food web’s interaction strengths. We then show that many species with shared traits can exhibit unified aggregate behavioral responses to climate change, which may allow us to understand the rewiring of whole food webs. We end by arguing that generalists’ responses present a powerful and underutilized approach to understand and predict the consequences of climate change and may serve as much-needed early warning signals for monitoring the looming impacts of global climate change on entire ecosystems.


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