What Drives Climate Change Adaptation Practices in Smallholder Farmers? Evidence from Potato Farmers in Indonesia

The potato is the third most consumed crop globally after rice and wheat, but climate change has often disrupted its production. Therefore, adaptation practices are needed to maintain potato productivity. This study investigates the determinants of on- and off-farm climate change adaptation practices among smallholder farmers in Indonesia, considering adaptation intensity, which has not discussed in previous literature. The cross-sectional data were collected from 302 smallholder potato farmers in East Java, Indonesia, analyzed by a multivariate probit model to estimate the determinants. An ordered probit model was subsequently employed to understand the intensity factors. The findings indicated that the significant factors that affect farmers’ choice of on-farm adaptations were the farmers’ education, their participation in farmers’ groups, agricultural-related infrastructure, and agriculture output prices. Meanwhile, the off-farm adaptations were significantly affected by the farmers’ education, employed family members, agriculture-related infrastructure, and livestock ownership. The ordered probit model also suggested that participation in farmers groups and agricultural-related infrastructure were the most significant factors that encouraged adaptation. Therefore, adaptation planning should consider these factors to optimally improve farmers’ adaptation capacity.

Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal

Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.

The unpredictable truth: A proposed roadmap for a ‘reflect-then-act’ approach to climate uncertainties and lessons learned from Norwegian municipalities

Several papers have through the years criticized climate policy decision making for being naïve with respect to how they view climate model outputs as objective facts and use the outputs directly to program policies. From this and similar observations, many of the papers conclude that there is a need for shifting to a new approach on how climate policymakers may relate to climate change uncertainties. The article proposes such a shift by presenting a roadmap on how to address uncertainties in climate change adaptation. It consists of three major elements: Firstly, to accept that in many cases we will not be able to reduce climate change uncertainties. Secondly, to diversify the way in which we describe climate change uncertainties, moving from a one-dimensional technical perspective to a multi-dimensional perspective which applies uncertainties also to social and political processes and systems. Thirdly, to change the way we address climate change uncertainties by moving from a predict-then-act to a reflect-then-act approach, implying that we must adapt to climate change even under high and various forms of uncertainties. Embedded in this last point is to accept unlike that of climate change mitigation, the precautionary principle will apply in many situations of climate change adaptation. In the last part of the article the usability of the proposed roadmap is demonstrated post-ante on four Norwegian cases of climate related natural hazard events.