scholarly journals The indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on inpatient admissions in 204 Kenyan hospitals: An interrupted time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
pp. e0000029
Author(s):  
Steven Wambua ◽  
Lucas Malla ◽  
George Mbevi ◽  
Amen-Patrick Nwosu ◽  
Timothy Tuti ◽  
...  

The first case of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in March 2020 in Kenya resulting in the implementation of public health measures (PHM) to prevent large-scale epidemics. We aimed to quantify the impact of COVID-19 confinement measures on access to inpatient services using data from 204 Kenyan hospitals. Data on monthly admissions and deliveries from the District Health Information Software version 2 (DHIS 2) were extracted for the period January 2018 to March 2021 stratified by hospital ownership (public or private) and adjusting for missing data using multiple imputation (MI). We used the COVID-19 event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of COVID-19 and associated PHM on use of health services by hospital ownership. We estimated the impact of COVID-19 using two approaches; Statistical process control (SPC) charts to visualize and detect changes and Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis using negative-binomial segmented regression models to quantify the changes after March 2020. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to test robustness of estimates using Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) and impact of national health workers strike on observed trends. SPC charts showed reductions in most inpatient services starting April 2020. ITS modelling showed significant drops in April 2020 in monthly volumes of live-births (11%), over-fives admissions for medical (29%) and surgical care (25%) with the greatest declines in the under-five’s admissions (59%) in public hospitals. Similar declines were apparent in private hospitals. Health worker strikes had a significant impact on post-COVID-19 trends for total deliveries, live-births and caesarean section rate in private hospitals. COVID-19 has disrupted utilization of inpatient services in Kenyan hospitals. This might have increased avoidable morbidity and mortality due to non-COVID-19-related illnesses. The declines have been sustained. Recent data suggests a reversal in trends with services appearing to be going back to pre- COVID levels.

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Turner ◽  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja

Abstract Background. Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services?Methods. There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions.Results. Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions. There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lvfan Feng ◽  
Yuan Tian ◽  
Mei He ◽  
Jie Tang ◽  
Ying Peng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The asymmetry of information brings difficulty for government to manage public hospitals. Therefore, Jiading District of Shanghai has been establishing DRGs-based inpatient service management system (ISMS) to effectively compare the output of different hospitals through DRGs, reward desired hospital performance and enhance inpatient service capacity. However, the impact of the implementation of DRGs-based inpatient service management (ISM) policy in Jiading district is still unknow. We therefore conducted this study to evaluate the impact of DRGs-based ISM policy on the performance of inpatient service since its implementation in Jiading District, Shanghai, China in 2017. Methods Using an interrupted time series design, we analyzed quarterly data of seven DRGs-based performance measures from the ISMS which covered all five public hospitals in Jiading District from 2013 to 2019. We utilized the segmented linear regression model to assess the change of level and trend of performance indicators before and after ISM policy. Dickey–Fuller test was used to examine the stationary of the data. Durbin-Watson test was performed to check the series autocorrelation of indicators. Results Significant changes in the following indicators were observed since the implementation of ISM policy. The case-mix index (CMI) level decreased by 0.103 (P < 0.05), the trend increased by 0.008 (P < 0.05). The total weight level decreased by 3719.05 (P < 0.05), and the trend increased by 250.13 (P < 0.05). The time efficiency index (TEI) level increased by 0.12 (P < 0.05), and the trend decreased by 0.01 (P < 0.05). The cost efficiency index (CEI) level increased by 0.31 (P < 0.05), and the trend decreased by 0.02 (P < 0.05). No significant difference was found in the change of DRGs number, inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG) and inpatient mortality of medium-to-low risk group cases (IMMLRG). Conclusions Findings highlight the role of ISM policy in improving the capacity and efficiency of regional inpatient service. Three prerequisites, including a good information system, high-quality EMR data, and a management team, are needed for other countries to implement their own ISM policy to help government manage public hospitals and improve the performance of regional inpatient service.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samad Rouhani ◽  
Reza Esmaeili ◽  
Jamshid Yazdani Charati ◽  
Masoud Khandehroo

Abstract Background Low and middle income countries has recently implemented various reforms toward Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This study aims to assess the impact of Family Physician Plan (FPP) and Health Transformation Plan (HTP) on hospitalization rate in Iran. Methods We conducted an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design. The data was monthly hospitalization of Mazandaran province over a period of 7 years. Segmented regression analysis was applied in R version 3.6.1. Results A decreasing trend by − 0.056 for every month was found after implementation of Family Physician Plan, but this was not significant. Significant level change was appeared at the beginning of Health Transformation Plan and average of hospitalization rate increased by 1.04 (P < 0.001). Also hospitalization trend increased significantly nearly 0.09 every month in period after Health Transformation Plan (P < 0.001). Conclusions Family physician created a decreasing trend for hospitalization in urban area of Mazandaran province in Iran. HTP with lower user fee in governmental public hospitals and clinics as well as fee-for-service mechanisms, stimulated both level and trend changes in hospital admissions. Some integrated health policy is required to optimize the implementation of diverse simultaneous reforms in low and middle-income countries.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samad Rouhani ◽  
Reza Esmaeili ◽  
Jamshid YazdaniCharati ◽  
Masoud Khandehroo

Abstract Background : Low and middle income countries has recently implemented various reforms toward Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This study aims to assess the impact of Family Physician Plan (FPP) and Health Transformation Plan (HTP) on hospitalization rate in Iran.Methods: We conducted an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design. The data was monthly hospitalization of Mazandaran province over a period of 7 years. Segmented regression analysis was applied in R version 3.6.1.Results: A decreasing trend by -0.056 for every month was found after implementation of Family Physician Plan, but this was not significant. Significant level change was appeared at the beginning of Health Transformation Plan and average of hospitalization rate increased by 1.04 (P<0.001). Also hospitalization trend increased significantly nearly 0.09 every month in period after Health Transformation Plan (P<0.001).Conclusions: Family physician created a decreasing trend for hospitalization. Development of FPP to urban area of Iran will lead to health system efficiency. HTP with lower user fee in public hospitals and clinics as well as fee-for-service mechanisms, stimulated both level and trend changes in hospital admissions. Some integrated health policy is required to optimize the implementation of diverse simultaneous reforms in low and middle-income countries.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner

Abstract Background. Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services?Methods. There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions.Results. Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions. There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.


BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. e022328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Guan ◽  
Ye Tian ◽  
Dennis Ross-Degnan ◽  
Chunxia Man ◽  
Luwen Shi

ObjectivesThe rapid growth of pharmaceutical costs is a major healthcare issue all over the world. The high prices of new drugs, especially those for cancer, are also a concern for stakeholders. Generic drugs are a major price-reducing opportunity and provide more societal value. The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of generic entry on the volume and cost of antineoplastic agents in China.MethodsAn interrupted time-series design examined monthly sales of three antineoplastic drugs (capecitabine, decitabine, imatinib) from 699 public hospitals during January 2011 to June 2016. The first generic entry times (December 2013, December 2012, August 2013, respectively) were regarded as the intervention time points. We estimated changes in volume and cost following the generic entry.ResultsWe found that generic entry was associated with increases in the volume of three antineoplastic agents and decreases in their costs. In terms of volume, generic entry was associated with increases in use of capecitabine, decitabine and imatinib by 815.0 (95% CI −66.5 to 1696.5, p>0.05), 11.0 (95% CI 3.7 to 18.3, p=0.004) and 2145.5 (95% CI 1784.1 to 2506.9, p<0.001) units. The entry of generic antineoplastic drugs reduced the monthly cost trend of three agents by ¥3.1 (95% CI −¥3.6 to −¥2.6, p<0.001), ¥84.7 (95% CI −¥104.7 to −¥64.6, p<0.001) and ¥21.3 (95% CI −¥24.2 to −¥18.4, p<0.001), respectively. The entry of generic drugs attenuated the upward trend in volume of three brand-name drugs and even triggered reductions in the volume of brand-name capecitabine. The entry of generics was accompanied by significant increase of ¥2.6 in monthly brand-name decitabine cost (95% CI ¥0.2 to ¥5.1, p=0.04).ConclusionOur findings suggested that entry of generic drugs impacted use and cost of antineoplastic medicines in China. Generic drugs may improve the availability and the affordability of antineoplastic agents, which would benefit more patients.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. e039760
Author(s):  
Kamal Raj Acharya ◽  
Gabrielle Brankston ◽  
Jean-Paul R Soucy ◽  
Adar Cohen ◽  
Anette Hulth ◽  
...  

IntroductionAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) impacts the health and well-being of animals, affects animal owners both socially and economically, and contributes to AMR at the human and environmental interface. The overuse and/or inappropriate use of antibiotics in animals has been identified as one of the most important drivers of the development of AMR in animals. Effective antibiotic stewardship interventions such as feedback can be adopted in veterinary practices to improve antibiotic prescribing. However, the provision of dedicated financial and technical resources to implement such systems are challenging. The newly developed web-based Online Platform for Expanding Antibiotic Stewardship (OPEN Stewardship) platform aims to automate the generation of feedback reports and facilitate wider adoption of antibiotic stewardship. This paper describes a protocol to evaluate the usability and usefulness of a feedback intervention among veterinarians and assess its impact on individual antibiotic prescribing.Methods and analysisApproximately 80 veterinarians from Ontario, Canada and 60 veterinarians from Israel will be voluntarily enrolled in a controlled interrupted time-series study and their monthly antibiotic prescribing data accessed. The study intervention consists of targeted feedback reports generated using the OPEN Stewardship platform. After a 3-month preintervention period, a cohort of veterinarians (treatment cohort, n=120) will receive three feedback reports over the course of 6 months while the remainder of the veterinarians (n=20) will be the control cohort. A survey will be administered among the treatment cohort after each feedback cycle to assess the usability and usefulness of various elements of the feedback report. A multilevel negative-binomial regression analysis of the preintervention and postintervention antibiotic prescribing of the treatment cohort will be performed to evaluate the impact of the intervention.Ethics and disseminationResearch ethics board approval was obtained at each participating site prior to the recruitment of the veterinarians. The study findings will be disseminated through open-access scientific publications, stakeholder networks and national/international meetings.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
lvfan feng ◽  
Yuan Tian ◽  
Mei He ◽  
Jie Tang ◽  
Ying Peng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The asymmetry of information brings difficulty for government to manage public hospitals. Therefore, Jiading District of Shanghai has been establishing DRGs-based inpatient service management system (ISMS) to effectively compare the output of different hospitals through DRGs, reward desired hospital performance and enhance inpatient service capacity. However, the impact of the implementation of DRGs-based inpatient service management (ISM) policy in Jiading district is still unknow. We therefore conducted this study to evaluate the impact of DRGs-based ISM policy on the performance of inpatient service since its implementation in Jiading District, Shanghai, China in 2017.Methods: Using an interrupted time series design, we analyzed quarterly data of seven DRGs-based performance measures from the ISMS which covered all five public hospitals in Jiading District from 2013 to 2019. We utilized the segmented linear regression model to assess the change of level and trend of performance indicators before and after ISM policy. Dickey–Fuller test was used to examine the stationary of the data. Durbin-Watson test was performed to check the series autocorrelation of indicators.Results: Significant changes in the following indicators were observed since the implementation of ISM policy. The case-mix index (CMI) level decreased by 0.103 (P < 0.05), the trend increased by 0.008 (P < 0.05). The total weight level decreased by 3719.05 (P < 0.05), and the trend increased by 250.13 (P < 0.05). The time efficiency index (TEI) level increased by 0.12 (P < 0.05), and the trend decreased by 0.01 (P < 0.05). The cost efficiency index (CEI) level increased by 0.31 (P < 0.05), and the trend decreased by 0.02 (P < 0.05). No significant difference was found in the change of DRGs number, inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG) and inpatient mortality of medium-to-low risk group cases (IMMLRG).Conclusions: Findings highlight the role of ISM policy in improving the capacity and efficiency of regional inpatient service. Three prerequisites, including a good information system, high-quality EMR data, and a management team, are needed for other countries to implement their own ISM policy to help government manage public hospitals and improve the performance of regional inpatient service.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
lvfan feng ◽  
Yuan Tian ◽  
Mei He ◽  
Jie Tang ◽  
Ying Peng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The asymmetry of information brings difficulty for government to manage public hospitals. Therefore, Jiading District of Shanghai has been establishing DRGs-based inpatient service management system (ISMS) to effectively compare the output of different hospitals through DRGs, reward desired hospital performance and enhance inpatient service capacity. However, the impact of the implementation of DRGs-based inpatient service management (ISM) policy in Jiading district is still unknow. We therefore conducted this study to evaluate the impact of DRGs-based ISM policy on the performance of inpatient service since its implementation in Jiading District, Shanghai, China in 2017.Methods: Using an interrupted time series design, we analyzed quarterly data of seven DRGs-based performance measures from the ISMS which covered all five public hospitals in Jiading District from 2013 to 2019. We utilized the segmented linear regression model to assess the change of level and trend of performance indicators before and after ISM policy. Dickey–Fuller test was used to examine the stationary of the data. Durbin-Watson test was performed to check the series autocorrelation of indicators.Results: Significant changes in the following indicators were observed since the implementation of ISM policy. The case-mix index (CMI) level decreased by 0.103 (P < 0.05), the trend increased by 0.008 (P < 0.05). The total weight level decreased by 3719.05 (P < 0.05), and the trend increased by 250.13 (P < 0.05). The time efficiency index (TEI) level increased by 0.12 (P < 0.05), and the trend decreased by 0.01 (P < 0.05). The cost efficiency index (CEI) level increased by 0.31 (P < 0.05), and the trend decreased by 0.02 (P < 0.05). No significant difference was found in the change of DRGs number, inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG) and inpatient mortality of medium-to-low risk group cases (IMMLRG).Conclusions: Findings highlight the role of ISM policy in improving the capacity and efficiency of regional inpatient service. Three prerequisites, including a good information system, high-quality EMR data, and a management team, are needed for other countries to implement their own ISM policy to help government manage public hospitals and improve the performance of regional inpatient service.


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