Estimands: bringing clarity and focus to research questions in clinical trials

Precise specification of the research question and associated treatment effect of interest is essential in clinical research, yet recent work shows that they are often incompletely specified. The ICH E9 (R1) Addendum on Estimands and Sensitivity Analysis in Clinical Trials introduces a framework that supports researchers in precisely and transparently specifying the treatment effect they aim to estimate in their clinical trial. In this paper, we present practical examples to demonstrate to all researchers involved in clinical trials how estimands can help them to specify the research question, lead to a better understanding of the treatment effect to be estimated and hence increase the probability of success of the trial.

ACCEPTANCE: protocol for a feasibility study of a multicomponent physical activity intervention following treatment for cervical cancer

IntroductionCervical cancer treatment can have life changing sequelae and be associated with poor short-term and long-term quality of life. Physical activity (PA; that is, bodily movement) is known to improve health outcomes and quality of life for cancer survivors, both physically and psychologically. To date, no interventions to increase PA following cervical cancer have been evaluated. This study aims to (1) determine the feasibility of conducting a PA intervention after cervical cancer and (2) to explore the acceptability of the programme and evaluation measures.Methods and analysisThe design is a pre study and post study design. Thirty participants aged between 18 and 60 years from the Midlands region, UK, who have completed primary treatment for cervical cancer at least 6 months previously and do not meet the national PA guidelines will be recruited. Identification of potential participants will take place through the University Hospitals of Leicester National Health Service (NHS) Trust. Participants will receive an intervention focused on increasing PA through the provision of education, action planning, goal setting, problem solving and self-monitoring of PA behaviour, particularly steps per day. Device assessed PA and questionnaires will be completed at baseline, week 6, week 12 and week 24. Feasibility will be assessed in terms of recruitment, retention, attrition, completion of measures and intervention compliance, for which specific feasibility criteria have been established. The process evaluation will explore the experiences and acceptability of the intervention components and evaluation measures.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been granted by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 1 for this study. Results will inform intervention refinement for the design of a definitive pilot trial. These results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications and international conferences while input from a patient and public involvement (PPI) group will inform effective ways to circulate results among the wider community.Trial registration numberISRCTN16349793, Registered 30 September 2020.

Rethinking pain education from the perspectives of people experiencing pain: a meta-ethnography to inform physiotherapy training

BackgroundPain is a complex, global and multidimensional phenomena that impacts the lives of millions of people. Chronic pain (lasting more than 3 months) is particularly burdensome for individuals, health and social care systems. Physiotherapists have a fundamental role in supporting people who are experiencing pain. However, the appropriateness of pain education in pre-registration physiotherapy training programmes has been questioned.Recent research reports identify the need to integrate the voice of patients to inform the development of the pre-registration curriculum. The aim of this meta-ethnography was to develop new conceptual understanding of patients' needs when accessing physiotherapy for pain management. The concepts were viewed through an educational lens to create a patient needs-based model to inform physiotherapy training.MethodsNoblit and Hare’s seven-stage meta-ethnography was used to conduct this qualitative systematic review. Five databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL Complete, ERIC, PsycINFO and AMED) were searched with eligibility criteria: qualitative methodology, reports patient experience of physiotherapy, adult participants with musculoskeletal pain, reported in English. Databases were searched to January 2018. Emerge reporting guidelines guided the preparation of this manuscript.ResultsA total of 366 citations were screened, 43 full texts retrieved and 18 studies included in the final synthesis. Interpretive qualitative synthesis resulted in six distinct categories that represent patients’ needs when in pain. Analysing categories through an education lens resulted in three overall lines of argument to inform physiotherapy training. The categories and lines of argument are represented in a ‘needs-based’ model to inform pre-registration physiotherapy training.DiscussionThe findings provide new and novel interpretations of qualitative data in an area of research that lacks patient input. This is a valuable addition to pain education research. Findings support the work of others relative to patient centredness in physiotherapy.

Plasma concentration guided dosing of drugs used for the treatment of childhood leukaemias: protocol for a systematic review

IntroductionChildhood leukaemia is the most common type of cancer in children and represents among 25% of the diagnoses in children <15 years old. Childhood survival rates have significantly improved within the last 40 years due to a rapid advancement in therapeutic interventions. However, in high-risk groups, survival rates remain poor. Pharmacokinetic (PK) data of cancer medications in children are limited and thus current dosing regimens are based on studies with small sample sizes. In adults, large variability in PK is observed and dose individualisation (plasma concentration guided dosing) has been associated with improved clinical outcomes; whether this is true for children is still unknown. This provides an opportunity to explore this strategy in children to potentially reduce toxicities and ensure optimal dosing. This paper will provide a protocol to systematically review studies that have used dose individualisation of drugs used in the treatment of childhood leukaemias.Methods and analysisSystematic review methodology will be applied to identify, select and extract data from published plasma guided dosing studies conducted in a paediatric leukaemia cohort. Databases (eg, Ovid Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Cochrane) and clinical trial registries (CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov and ISRCTN) will be used to perform the systematic literature search (up until February 2021). Only full empirical studies will be included, with primary clinical outcomes (progression-free survival, toxicities, minimal residual disease status, complete cytogenetic response, partial cytogenetic response and major molecular response) being used to decide whether the study will be included. The quality of included studies will be undertaken, with a subgroup analysis where appropriate.Ethics and disseminationThis systematic review will not require ethics approval as there will not be collection of primary data. Findings of this review will be made available through publications in peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations. Gaps will be identified in current literature to inform future-related research.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021225045.

Association of myocardial fibrosis detected by late gadolinium-enhanced MRI with clinical outcomes in patients with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectiveThis meta-analysis assessed the associations of myocardial fibrosis detected by late gadolinium-enhanced (LGE)-MRI with the risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) and major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in patients with diabetes.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis reported in accordance with the guidelines of the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology statement.Data sourcesWe searched the Medline, Embase and Cochrane by Ovid databases for studies published up to 27 August 2021.Eligibility criteriaProspective or respective cohort studies were included if they reported the HR and 95% CIs for MACCEs/MACEs in patients with either type 1 or 2 diabetes and LGE-MRI-detected myocardial fibrosis compared with patients without LGE-MRI-detected myocardial fibrosis and if the articles were published in the English language.Data extraction and synthesisTwo review authors independently extracted data and assessed the quality of the included studies. Pooled HRs and 95% CIs were analysed using a random effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using forest plots and I2 statistics.ResultsEight studies with 1121 patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes were included in this meta-analysis, and the follow-up ranged from 17 to 70 months. The presence of myocardial fibrosis detected by LGE-MRI was associated with an increased risk for MACCEs (HR: 2.58; 95% CI 1.42 to 4.71; p=0.002) and MACEs (HR: 5.28; 95% CI 3.20 to 8.70; p<0.001) in patients with diabetes. Subgroup analysis revealed that ischaemic fibrosis detected by LGE was associated with MACCEs (HR 3.80, 95% CI 2.38 to 6.07; p<0.001) in patients with diabetes.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that ischaemic myocardial fibrosis detected by LGE-MRI was associated with an increased risk of MACCEs/MACEs in patients with diabetes and may be an imaging biomarker for risk stratification. Whether LGE-MRI provides incremental prognostic information with respect to MACCEs/MACEs over risk stratification by conventional cardiovascular risk factors requires further study.

Use of the ONCO-TreC electronic diary compared with a standard paper diary to improve adherence to oral cancer therapy in patients with solid and haematological tumours: protocol for a randomised controlled trial

IntroductionONCO-TreC platform consists of a mobile application delivered to patients as electronic diary and a web-based dashboard managed by healthcare professionals. We aim to compare the effectiveness of ONCO-TreC electronic diary with a standard paper diary, in improving adherence to oral cancer therapy in patients with solid and haematological tumours.Methods and analysisThis is an open label, superiority, randomised controlled trial conducted in two Italian oncology units. Patients will be randomised with a 1:1 ratio to electronic or paper diary. For both groups a counsellor will be responsible for drug and diary delivery. The evaluation period will end after six cycles of therapy. The primary aim is to compare the proportion of non-adherent patients in the two arms. Adherence will be measured through pill count; anyone who takes less than 90% of the total prescribed drug dose will be considered non-adherent. Assuming a percentage of non-adherent patients to oral therapy of 40% in arm B, and a 60% reduction in this percentage in arm A, a sample of 124 patients will provide 80% power to identify an absolute difference greater than 24 percentage points using a bilateral Fisher’s exact test with a significance level of 0.05. Considering a dropout rate of 10%, approximately 136 patients will have to be enrolled. The primary analysis will be performed on the intention-to-treat population. Secondary aims are to describe the reasons for non-adherence, the level of satisfaction of patients and healthcare professionals with the paper and electronic diary, and the impact of non-adherence in terms of healthcare costs.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval was obtained from Romagna Ethics Committee (CEROM), study ID 2108, prot. n. IRST 100.28 of 10/04/2020. Informed consent will be obtained from all study participants. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conferences and event presentations.Protocol versionVersion 2, 6 April 2021.Trial registration numberNCT04826458.

Experiences of living with long COVID and of accessing healthcare services: a qualitative systematic review

ObjectiveTo explore the experiences of people living with long COVID and how they perceive the healthcare services available to them.DesignQualitative systematic review.Data sourcesElectronic literature searches of websites, bibliographic databases and discussion forums, including PubMed LitCovid, Proquest COVID, EPPI Centre living systematic map of evidence, medRxiv, bioRxiv, Medline, Psychinfo and Web of Science Core Collection were conducted to identify qualitative literature published in English up to 13 January 2021.Inclusion criteriaPapers reporting qualitative or mixed-methods studies that focused on the experiences of long COVID and/or perceptions of accessing healthcare by people with long COVID. Title/abstract and full-text screening were conducted by two reviewers independently, with conflicts resolved by discussion or a third reviewer.Quality appraisalTwo reviewers independently appraised included studies using the qualitative CASP (Critical Appraisal Skills Programme) checklist. Conflicts were resolved by discussion or a third reviewer.Data extraction and synthesisThematic synthesis, involving line-by-line reading, generation of concepts, descriptive and analytical themes, was conducted by the review team with regular discussion.ResultsFive studies published in 2020 met the inclusion criteria, two international surveys and three qualitative studies from the UK. Sample sizes varied from 24 (interview study) to 3762 (survey). Participants were predominantly young white females recruited from social media or online support groups. Three analytical themes were generated: (1) symptoms and self-directed management of long COVID; (2) emotional aspects of living with long COVID and (3) healthcare experiences associated with long COVID.ConclusionsPeople experience long COVID as a heterogeneous condition, with a variety of physical and emotional consequences. It appears that greater knowledge of long COVID is required by a number of stakeholders and that the design of emerging long COVID services or adaptation of existing services for long COVID patients should take account of patients’ experiences in their design.

Feasibility of delivering and evaluating stratified care integrated with telehealth (‘Rapid Stratified Telehealth’) for patients with low back pain: protocol for a feasibility and pilot randomised controlled trial

IntroductionLong waiting time is an important barrier to accessing recommended care for low back pain (LBP) in Australia’s public health system. This study describes the protocol for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) that aims to establish the feasibility of delivering and evaluating stratified care integrated with telehealth (‘Rapid Stratified Telehealth’), which aims to reduce waiting times for LBP.Methods and analysisWe will conduct a single-centre feasibility and pilot RCT with nested qualitative interviews. Sixty participants with LBP newly referred to a hospital outpatient clinic will be randomised to receive Rapid Stratified Telehealth or usual care. Rapid Stratified Telehealth involves matching the mode and type of care to participants’ risk of persistent disabling pain (using the Keele STarT MSK Tool) and presence of potential radiculopathy. ‘Low risk’ patients are matched to one session of advice over the telephone, ‘medium risk’ to telehealth physiotherapy plus App-based exercises, ‘high risk’ to telehealth physiotherapy, App-based exercises, and an online pain education programme, and ‘potential radiculopathy’ fast tracked to usual in-person care. Primary outcomes include the feasibility of delivering Rapid Stratified Telehealth (ie, acceptability assessed through interviews with clinicians and patients, intervention fidelity, appointment duration, App useability and online pain education programme usage) and evaluating Rapid Stratified Telehealth in a future trial (ie, recruitment rates, consent rates, lost to follow-up and missing data). Secondary outcomes include waiting times, number of appointments, intervention and healthcare costs, clinical outcomes (pain, function, quality of life, satisfaction), healthcare use and adverse events (AEs). Quantitative analyses will be descriptive and inform a future adequately-powered RCT. Interview data will be analysed using thematic analysis.Ethics and disseminationThis study has received approval from the Ethics Review Committee (RPAH Zone: X21-0221). Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences.Trial registration numberACTRN12621001104842.

Optimising treatment expectations in chronic lower back pain through observing others: a study protocol for a randomised clinical trial

IntroductionChronic lower back pain (CLBP) is a frequent cause of medical consultations worldwide, and it results in decreased quality of life and disability. Current treatments for CLBP are often not effective, and alternatives are urgently needed. Three promising possibilities have emerged: (1) open-label placebo treatment reduces chronic pain, (2) placebo treatment is as efficacious as opioid treatment with a high correlation between patient expectation and treatment outcome, and (3) observing positive effects in another patient can improve functional capacity. We hypothesise that treatment expectations can be positively influenced through social observation and improve treatment outcome.Methods and analysisIn our clinical trial, we will randomise patients with CLBP into five groups. Two groups receive either a 3 week course of treatment with an analgesic (ANA) (metamizole/dipyrone) or with open-label placebos (OLP). For one of each group, we will build treatment expectations through observational learning and assess its impact on the treatment. For this purpose, one group each will watch either a positive or a neutral video. The intervention groups will be compared with a control group that will not be given any medication or observational learning. Participants will be recruited via all institutions in the Hamburg metropolitan area that treat patients with CLBP. Patients are eligible for inclusion if they are at least 18 years or older, have CLBP (of at least 3 months duration), and agree to potentially receive an active ANA or an OLP. Patients with pain-related “red flags” will be excluded. The study requires 150 participants (30 participants per group) to assess the differences in the primary outcome, pain intensity. Secondary outcomes include changes in treatment expectations, anxiety, comorbid depression, stress-related neuroendocrine measures, functional and structural connectivity, functional capacity, and ANA consumption. All outcomes and treatment expectations will be measured before and after the intervention and 3 months post-intervention.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval was obtained in January 2020 from the Hamburg Medical Ethics Council (ref number PV7067). Outcomes will be disseminated through publications in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at national and international conference meetings.Trial registration numberThe approved trial protocol was registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) and can be found at drks.de (Identifier: DRKS00024418).

Reassessing the evidence for universal school-age BCG vaccination in England and Wales: re-evaluating and updating a modelling study

ObjectivesIn 2005, England and Wales switched from universal BCG vaccination against tuberculosis (TB) disease for school-age children to targeted vaccination of neonates. We aimed to recreate and re-evaluate a previously published model, the results of which informed this policy change.DesignWe recreated an approach for estimating the impact of ending the BCG schools scheme, correcting a methodological flaw in the model, updating the model with parameter uncertainty and improving parameter estimates where possible. We investigated scenarios for the assumed annual decrease in TB incidence rates considered by the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation and explored alternative scenarios using notification data.SettingEngland and Wales.Outcome measuresThe number of vaccines needed to prevent a single notification and the average annual additional notifications caused by ending the policy change.ResultsThe previously published model was found to contain a methodological flaw and to be spuriously precise. It greatly underestimated the impact of ending school-age vaccination compared with our updated, corrected model. The updated model produced predictions with wide CIs when parameter uncertainty was included. Model estimates based on an assumption of an annual decrease in TB incidence rates of 1.9% were closest to those estimated using notification data. Using this assumption, we estimate that 1600 (2.5; 97.5% quantiles: 1300, 2000) vaccines would have been required to prevent a single notification in 2004.ConclusionsThe impact of ending the BCG schools scheme was found to be greater than previously thought when notification data were used. Our results highlight the importance of independent evaluations of modelling evidence, including uncertainty, and evaluating multiple scenarios when forecasting the impact of changes in vaccination policy.