Endogenous rise of an international monetary system : a model with emerging market heterogeneity and triffin dilemma

Author(s):  
Barron Yiu Hing Tsai
2017 ◽  
Vol 133 (1) ◽  
pp. 295-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Farhi ◽  
Matteo Maggiori

AbstractWe propose a simple model of the international monetary system. We study the world supply and demand for reserve assets denominated in different currencies under a variety of scenarios: a hegemon versus a multipolar world; abundant versus scarce reserve assets; and a gold exchange standard versus a floating rate system. We rationalize the Triffin dilemma, which posits the fundamental instability of the system, as well as the common prediction regarding the natural and beneficial emergence of a multipolar world, the Nurkse warning that a multipolar world is more unstable than a hegemon world, and the Keynesian argument that a scarcity of reserve assets under a gold standard or at the zero lower bound is recessionary. Our analysis is both positive and normative.


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