Impact of crude oil price shocks on industrial output, inflation and exchange rate: evidence from five emerging Asian economies

The study empirically examines the effect of oil price shocks and food importation on economic growth in Nigeria along with two control variables i.e. exchange rate and inflation using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model covering the period of 1970 to 2015. The result from SVAR short-run pattern and long-run pattern indicate that GDP has recently been affected by all variables in the model. More also, it indicates a significant permanent effect of crude oil price shocks and food imports on economic growth, while the result further indicates a transitory effect of exchange rate and inflation on economic growth. For significant t-value of the long run SVAR estimate matrix, confirms long effect of crude oil price shocks, food imports, exchange rate and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria. The results from structural response indicate that crude oil have high positive impact on GDP at the initial period and negative impact at the end of the period. Furthermore, food imports have high negative effect on GDP, while GDP response negatively to exchange rate and inflation rate from the period. The result from the structural decompositions indicates that crude oil price and food imports and exchange rate contribute more variability to GDP, while inflation contribute less variability in explaining the variation of GDP in Nigeria. The study recommends that government should come up with a policy that will focus on alternative sources of government revenue by investing more in real sectors especially agriculture in order to withstand vicissitudes of oil shocks in future.

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The Effects of Oil Price Shock on the Indian Economy—A Study

The Indian Economic Journal ◽

10.1177/0019466219876491 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 66 (1-2) ◽

pp. 190-202

Author(s):

Nenavath Sreenu

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Price Impact ◽

Oil Price ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Oil Price Shocks ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Shocks ◽

Development Activity ◽

Indian Economy

The article examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP growth for the period of 2010–2018. Currently, the Indian economy has been facing the identical issues of escalating trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focussed on the determination of the relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth, and the paper investigated how oil price variations affect the Indian economy development through different networks like WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, monetary policy, trade and investment. The research paper adopted methods such as GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets, and then an extension of the vector auto-regression (VAR) models is also applied to determine the oil price shocks’ effect on macroeconomic indicators. The outcomes of cointegration model propose that crude oil is pro-cyclical to output, and the article used VAR investigation to check the discrepancy in decomposition to capture the linear inter-dependencies among the variables. JEL Classification: G4, G11, G15

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The effect of crude oil price shocks on macroeconomic stability in Ghana

OPEC Energy Review ◽

10.1111/opec.12182 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 44 (3) ◽

pp. 249-277

Author(s):

John Bosco Dramani ◽

Prince Boakye Frimpong

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Oil Price ◽

Oil Price Shocks ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Shocks ◽

Macroeconomic Stability

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The effects of Oil Price Shock on the Indian Economy – A Study

10.31124/advance.7440323.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

nenavath sreenu

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Mechanical Stability ◽

Price Impact ◽

Oil Price ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Oil Price Shocks ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Shocks ◽

Development Activity ◽

Indian Economy

<div>The paper examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP Growth for the period of 2010 till 2018. The present Indian economy growth has been facing the identical issues of escalating the trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focused on the determine relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth and the paper investigated the how oil price variations effect on the Indian economy development through different networks, viz. WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, Monetary policy, trade and investment. The paper used methods an GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets and then developed an extension of the GARCH-M, vector auto-regression (VAR) models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of co integration model propose that crude oil is pro‐cyclical to output, and the paper used VAR investigation to the discrepancy decomposition to capture the linear inter‐dependencies among the variables. The mechanical stability experiments determine that there is no indication of mechanical break in the VAR model.</div>

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The effects of Oil Price Shock on the Indian Economy – A Study

10.31124/advance.7440323 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

nenavath sreenu

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Mechanical Stability ◽

Price Impact ◽

Oil Price ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Oil Price Shocks ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Shocks ◽

Development Activity ◽

Indian Economy

<div>The paper examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP Growth for the period of 2010 till 2018. The present Indian economy growth has been facing the identical issues of escalating the trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focused on the determine relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth and the paper investigated the how oil price variations effect on the Indian economy development through different networks, viz. WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, Monetary policy, trade and investment. The paper used methods an GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets and then developed an extension of the GARCH-M, vector auto-regression (VAR) models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of co integration model propose that crude oil is pro‐cyclical to output, and the paper used VAR investigation to the discrepancy decomposition to capture the linear inter‐dependencies among the variables. The mechanical stability experiments determine that there is no indication of mechanical break in the VAR model.</div>

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Interrelationships Between Crude Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market, and Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from USA Market

Journal of Applied Business and Economics ◽

10.33423/jabe.v22i4.2914 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (4) ◽

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Foreign Exchange Market ◽

Oil Price ◽

Oil Price Shocks ◽

Exchange Market ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Shocks

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Pass-Through of Crude-oil Price Shocks to Consumer Prices in Nigeria: Pre and Post 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics ◽

10.33429/cjas.11220.5/8 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 115-143

Author(s):

Eric I. Otoakhia

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Oil Price ◽

Oil Price Shocks ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Shocks ◽

Price Inflation ◽

Pass Through ◽

The Impact

This study investigates the responses of consumer price index (CPI) to crude oil price shocks in the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis. The study used the Structural Vector Autoregressive model to analyse monthly data from 2000M01 to 2019M12. The impulse response analysis showed that for pre and post-crisis periods, oil price shocks have a positive impact on CPI. This impact was an insignificant direct momentary increase in pre-crisis CPI before dissipating. Conversely, the impact on post crisis CPI response tends to be stable and long-lasting starting from the third month. The confidence bands for the post crisis CPI are large, indicating the long-lasting positive response in the CPI pose no significant threat to price stability in the long run horizon. In conclusion, CPI response varies in terms of intensity for pre and post crisis periods. In terms of level of significance, the effect of the shocks on CPI is transient and insignificant in both periods. The post crisis oil price shock is not a significant channel that created price instability in Nigeria after the crisis and this study recommend partial deregulation of energy price should be maintained. Establishing oil price –inflation pass-through, external shocks like financial crisis should be accounted for.

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