gdp growth
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2022 ◽  
pp. 51-72
James Mitchell ◽  
Aubrey Poon ◽  
Gian Luigi Mazzi

2022 ◽  
pp. 126-146
S. G. Marichev

The paper attempts to estimate, in monetary terms, the volume of free digital services in GDP while assessing the contribution of digitalization to changes in welfare and economic growth. Approaches to such an estimation are analyzed and criticized. In particular, the calculation of the added value created in the digital sector does not properly reflect the economic effect of digitalization. Alternative auxiliary methods for estimating the contribution of digitalization to GDP growth are considered: the creation of satellite accounts of the digital economy within the SNA; the categorization and calculation of “purely” digital goods. The paper analyzes the methodology of calculating GDP which takes into account consumer surpluses from the use of free digital goods. The advantages of this methodology are outlined, including the consideration of a significant part of the digital sector of the economy in the calculation of GDP, as well as the relative ease of its use. This methodology was tested by drawing on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan.

2022 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 445-451
Rabia Zafar ◽  
Muhammad Maleeq-Ul-Islam Zafar

The major objective of this study is to check the effect of external debt on the GDP growth of Pakistan. For this purpose annual time series data were used for the period 1980 to 2020. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to check the stationary status of the data and the least square method was applied for the estimation of the results. For the analysis GDP growth rate was taken as a dependent variable and other variables, such as economic growth (Annual %), inflation rate (CPI %), Foreign Direct Investment net inflow (% of GDP), multi-lateral debt services (% of public and publically generated debt service), Total debt service (% of GNI), Short term debt (% of total reserves) were taken as explanatory variables. Findings revealed that the total debt and multilateral debt negatively affect the GDP growth rate, whereas, FDI and short term debt are positively associated with growth rate. It is suggested that to improve the economic growth Pakistan should focus on investment projects and there is a need to implementation better policies for foreign debt utilization

Econometrics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Philip Hans Franses ◽  
Max Welz

We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank and start in 1960. The models include lagged growth rates of other countries, as well as a cointegration relationship to capture potential common stochastic trends. With a few selection steps, our methodology quickly arrives at a reasonably small forecasting model per country. Compared with benchmark models, the single equation forecasting models seem to perform quite well.

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-36
Jan Co ◽  
Hannah Lo Chiong ◽  
Louie Uy ◽  

Bond markets have grown mature in many countries; however, the quality of financial integration varies across ASEAN economies. In the case of bond markets in the ASEAN +3, they experienced fast development; however, they are still less integrated. This study attempts to examine the ramifications of the ASEAN bond market integration and past crises to the Philippines’ inflation, credit, and growth and identify what impedes the development of the bond market for the period of 1992 to 2017. The study also aims to have a more in-depth analysis on preventing rises from happening and controlling both credit expansions and inflationary pressures. The Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) was used to examine the relationship of inflation, credit, bond market index, real interest rate, and integration to the Philippines’ growth. This led to this paper providing empirical insights that credit has a significant positive relationship with GDP growth; while, inflation has a significant negative relationship with GDP growth. However, the bond market index and integration showed insignificant negative results. This study provides possible reasons for the said conclusion and suggests ways not only to develop and grow the debt market in the Philippines but also to sustain long-run economic stability and growth to become on par with other ASEAN economies.

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-63
Roberta Bajrami ◽  
Adelina Gashi ◽  
Kosovare Ukshini ◽  
Donat Rexha

The Keynesian theory states that economic growth is positively affected by government spending, while Classical theory states that economic growth is negatively affected by government spending, as is stated by neoclassical public choice theorists (Nyasha & Odhiambo, 2019). Based on these theories, many authors have carried out research on the impact of economic freedom on economic growth by analyzing various empirical cases. Bergh and Karlsson (2010) with the findings from his paper confirmed that the countries with the highest government size have an elevated growth in the globalization index of KOF and the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom index. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the government size impact on the growth of the economy in the Western Balkan in the time period 2000–2017 according to Fraser Institute’s data, incorporating the following econometric models: fixed and random effects, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), and Hausman-Taylor IV. With these models, this paper analyzes a government size and its components: government enterprises and investment, government consumption, transfers, and subsidies. The results illustrate a relationship between the size of the government and the growth of the economy in the Western Balkans that is positive. 1% increase in government size affects 0.29% gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita. According to the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable, 1% growth of government consumption is affected by 0.69% the decline in GDP per capita. The growth rate of transfers and subsidies affects 0.17% of GDP growth per capita and 1% of government enterprises and investment affects 0.54% GDP growth per capita.

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-259
Joachim Jungherr ◽  
Immo Schott

Business credit lags GDP growth by about one year. This contributes to high leverage during recessions and slow deleveraging. We show that a model in which firms use risky long-term debt replicates this slow adjustment of firm debt. In the model, slow-moving debt has important effects for real activity. High levels of firm debt issued during expansions are only gradually reduced during recessions. This generates an adverse feedback loop between high default rates and low investment and thereby amplifies the downturn. Sluggish deleveraging slows down the recovery. (JEL E23, E32, E44, G31, G32)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 114-118
Dr Sumanta Bhattacharya ◽  
Bhavneet Kaur Sachdev

India is transforming its economy, there is infrastructure development, introduction of technology into majority of the sector. India is adopting smart technology and smart sustainable living to become self sufficient with the aim to reduce imports and promote exports in foreign trade. The country has allowed 100% FDI in a number of sectors. India is becoming an manufacturing hub with the made in India scheme being implemented in every sector from agricultural to Industrial to Service Sector.Foreign trade promotes diplomatic relation between countries. India is the largest producer of many products in the world, the defence sector has also started their own manufacturing in India, the sector has exported many missile and aircrafts adding to the GDP growth. Made in India scheme has provided employment to the young youth and many other skilled and unskilled people..The 2021 to 2026 foreign trade policy focus on small scale industries -MSME who are contributing 40% to the GDP growth and provided employment to maximum number of people after agricultural sector.

Evgeny F. Vinokurov

The article deals with the relationship between the economic growth of Russia and the dynamics of average wages. A joint analysis of wages, GDP, salary output and labor productivity in the Russian Federation for the period 2000–2019 was carried out. The type and parameters of the regression equations connecting these indicators are determined. The analysis allows us to conclude that it is advisable to increase real wages, despite the accompanying slow growth of labor productivity and a decrease in salary. The main argument in favor of this statement is the multiplicative effect that occurs when the average salary in the economy increases. The paper shows that the increase in wages, in addition to the usually taken into account direct multiplicative effect, determined by an increase in the disposable income of the population, there is an additional induced multiplicative effect. The induced effect is explained by the increase in economic activity of the population proved on the Russian statistics with the growth of wages, which leads to an increase in the number of employees, and hence the wage fund and, accordingly, personal disposable income. Thus, by increasing wages, it is possible to improve the financial situation of the employed population, attract additional labor resources to the economy, and achieve GDP growth. The article presents calculations that allow us to estimate the contribution of the direct and induced multiplicative effect to the GDP of Russia for the period of 2000–2017. Based on these calculations, it can be argued that in the Russian Federation at the beginning of the XXI century, the gross domestic product, due to the multiplicative effect of changes in average wages in the first year after such a change, increased or decreased in some years by 6–7%. Although the induced multiplicative effect, as it turned out, is relatively small, there is no reason to neglect it. At the current very low rate of GDP growth, one has to take into account every tenth of a percent of such growth, and calculations have shown that the induced effect calculated for the first year after the change in wages in the period under review reached 0,6% of GDP. The calculations also showed that due to the increase in labor activity associated with an increase in the average salary, the number of people employed in the “white” labor market in Russia in some years increased by about 1%.

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