scholarly journals Stock-flow adjustment in the evaluation of public debt dynamics in Poland

2018 ◽  
pp. 126-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Piątkowski ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Flow Adjustment ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
Stock Flow

scholarly journals Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (261) ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
The Public ◽  
Debt Accumulation ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Flow Adjustment ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
Adjustment Term ◽  
Stock Flow

The public sector, in carrying out its operations, often incurs foreign currency denominated liabilities and, as such, is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations that could affect the value of public debt to GDP ratios over time. This paper shows that converting foreign currency denominated flows and stocks into local currency using the average and the end-of-period exchange rates, respectively, as envisaged in public finance manuals, gives rise to an identifiable stock-flow adjustment term—due to intra-year exchange rate fluctuations—that affects public debt accumulation. Importantly, the inclusion of this often-ignored stock-flow adjustment term is critical to accurately project public debt levels and any related indicator that could in turn inform about the risk of debt distress. Using a novel dataset covering 82 countries during 2008–19, the paper shows that this stock flow adjustment term is sizable in countries experiencing large exchange rate depreciations, namely above the 99th percentile of the full sample, reaching 1.2 percent of GDP. Interestingly, the measurement of policy-related concepts such as interest rate-growth differentials and debt stabilizing primary balances are also affected by intra-year exchange rate fluctuations, and in non-negligible ways.

scholarly journals Stock-Flow Adjustment – Only a Residual Value? Evidence from European Union Countries

e-Finanse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 10-20
Author(s):  
Monika Banaszewska
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Fiscal Transparency ◽  
Flow Adjustment ◽  
European Union Countries ◽  
Stock Flow ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

AbstractThe aim of the article is to investigate the fiscal determinants of stock-flow adjustment (SFA). Previous literature suggests that SFA may be used strategically to reduce budget deficit and public debt. As such, SFA impairs fiscal transparency and may endanger fiscal sustainability. Therefore, special attention should be paid by economists and policymakers. The study pertains to the European Union countries in the years 2005-2016. The empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that SFA is inversely related to public debt, whereas the inverse relationship between budget balance and SFA is not confirmed. The article contains additional analyses for selected components of SFA as well as narrower time and space coverage.

Determinan Kenaikan Rasio Utang Indonesia Periode 2012-2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-191
Author(s):  
Widjanarko Widjanarko
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Flow Adjustment ◽  
Stock Flow

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguraikan (dekomposisi) variabel penyumbang kenaikan rasio utang terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia tahun 2012-2019 dengan pendekatan debt dynamic. Metode penelitian ini menggunakan model dekomposisi public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio yang dikembangkan International Monetary Fund/IMF (2013). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel menyumbang kenaikan rasio utang terhadap PDB, meliputi: i) keseimbangan primer negatif karena kenaikan jumlah pengadaan utang), ii) relatif tingginya tingkat bunga riil iii) pelemahan nilai tukar dan iv) Stock Flow Adjustment (SFA). Upaya meminimalisasi penurunan defisit keseimbangan primer tahun 2018 sebesar -0,01% PDBmenjadi sebesar -0.5% GDP di tahun 2019menunjukkan tekad pemerintah untuk menjaga keberlanjutan fiskal.Hal tersebut tercermin dalam relatif kecilnya peningkatan rasio utang terhadap PDB dari 29,98% tahun 2018 menjadi 30.18% PDB tahun 2019.

scholarly journals The Public Debt of Ukraine and the Budget Expenditure for Its Service

2018 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. H. Bondaruk ◽  
O. S. Bondaruk ◽  
N. Yu. Melnychuk
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Public Budget ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
The Public ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Public Debt Management ◽  
Made In

the public debt is deepened, the visions of the public debt as a phenomenon burdening the national economy, found in various schools of economics, are reviewed. It is demonstrated that the high internal and external dept in parallel with the respectively growing expenditure for its service is a pressing problem for Ukraine, calling for an urgent solution. This raises the need for seeking ways to improve the public debt management mechanisms. The article’s objective is to deepen the theoretical and methodological framework for assessment of the public debt in Ukraine and the budget expenditures for its service. It is demonstrated that the public debt in Ukraine results from the public budget deficit, high sovereign borrowing from internal and external sources. The econometric assessment of the time series on budget expenditures for debt service and repayment in Ukraine is given. The analysis of the public debt dynamics in Ukraine shows that not only the increasing volume of public debt and State-guarantee debt, but also the increasing budget expenditures on its service and repayment are dangerous. The high deficit of public budget is persisting, which growth is caused, inter alia, by the payment commitments. The expenditures on service and repayment of public debt constitute a large share in the public budget expenditures. Forecasting calculations made in the article demonstrate the upward tendency in the public budget expenditures on repayment and service of the public debt of Ukraine, thus signaling the growing threats to the budget security of Ukraine. The main factors for the rapidly increased debt burden in Ukraine over the latest years are identified: the considerable devaluation of domestic currency (Hryvnya), sharp drop in GDP, the shrinking internal consumer demand, etc.    It is demonstrated that the risk of the increasing payments for service of public debt is an essential and chronic factor generating problems in public finances and affecting the budget security of Ukraine.  

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