Shadow Prices of Nuclear and Thermal Capital Stock and Their Substitution Possibilities in Korean Power Generating Industry

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Myunghun
Keyword(s):  
Capital Stock ◽  
Shadow Prices

Comments on "Shadow Pricing and Macroeconomic Analysis: Some Illustrations from Pakistan" by Squire et al.

1979 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-115
Author(s):  
T. N. Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Partial Equilibrium ◽  
Shadow Prices ◽  
Essential Point ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Shadow Pricing ◽  
Extreme Sensitivity

The paper is too long for conveying the message that shadow pricing used as a method of analysis in micro-economic issues of project selection is also useful for analysing macro-economic issues, such as foreign and domestic borrowing by the government, emigration, etc. Much of the methodological discussion in the paper is available in a readily accessible form in several publications of each of the coauthors; In contrast, the specific application of the methodology to Pakistani problems is much too cavalier. While it is hard to disagree with the authors' claim that shadow pricing "constitutes a relatively informal attempt to capture general equilibrium effects" (p. 89, emphasis added), their depiction of traditional analysis is a bit of a caricature: essentially it sets up a strawman to knock down. After all in the traditional partial equilibrium analysis, the caveat is always entered that the results are possibly sensitive to violation of the ceteris paribus assumptions of the analysis, though often the analysts will claim that extreme sensitivity is unlikely. Analogously, the shadow pricing method presumes "stationarity" of shadow prices in the sense that they are “independent of policy changes under review" (p. 90). The essential point to be noted is that the validity of this assertion or of the "not too extreme sensitivity" assertion of partial equilibrium analysts can be tested only with a full scale general equilibrium model! At any rate this reviewer would not pose the issue as one of traditional partial equilibrium macro-analysis versus shadow pricing as an approximate general equilibrium analysis, but would prefer a description of project analysis as an approach in which a macro-general equilibrium model of a manageable size (implicit or explicit) is used to derive a set of key shadow prices which are then used in a detailed micro-analysis of projects.

scholarly journals The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Djurovic ◽  
Vasilije Djurovic ◽  
Martin M. Bojaj
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Policy Measures

Abstract This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019, following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020. Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from ± 10 to ± 60% were analyzed. We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides, namely, GDP, tourism, capital stock, human capital, health expenditures, economic freedom, and unemployment. The results show a toll on the GDP, tourism, unemployment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2020. The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies. Considering all uncertainties, the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.

scholarly journals Annuity Markets and Capital Accumulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shantanu Bagchi ◽  
James A. Feigenbaum
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Early Life ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Substitution Effect ◽  
Income Effect ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Income Effects ◽  
Annuity Markets ◽  
The One

AbstractWe examine how the absence of annuities in financial markets affects capital accumulation in a two-period overlapping generations model. Our findings indicate that the effect on capital is ambiguous in general equilibrium, because there are two competing mechanisms at work. On the one hand, the absence of annuities increases the price of old-age consumption relative to the price of early-life consumption. This induces a substitution effect that reduces saving and capital, and an income effect that has the opposite effect as households want to consume less when young, causing them to save more. On the other hand, accidental bequests originate from the assets of the deceased under missing annuity markets. The bequest received in early life always has a positive income effect on saving, but the bequest received in old age, conditional on survival, is effectively a partial annuity with both substitution and income effects. We find that when the desire to smooth consumption is high, the income effects dominate, so the capital stock always increases when annuity markets are missing. However, when the desire to smooth consumption is low, the substitution effects dominate, and the capital stock decreases with missing annuity markets.

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