scholarly journals The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Djurovic ◽  
Vasilije Djurovic ◽  
Martin M. Bojaj
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Policy Measures

Abstract This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019, following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020. Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from ± 10 to ± 60% were analyzed. We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides, namely, GDP, tourism, capital stock, human capital, health expenditures, economic freedom, and unemployment. The results show a toll on the GDP, tourism, unemployment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2020. The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies. Considering all uncertainties, the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.

scholarly journals The Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: A Bayesian VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Djurovic ◽  
Vasilije Djurovic ◽  
Martin M Bojaj
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Fast Recovery ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Bayesian Var

Abstract The outbreak of COVID-19 has faced the globe with economic upheaval. The research problem of this paper focuses on examining, diagnosing, and assessing appropriate macroprudential policy response of the Montenegrin government to the evolution of the pandemic disease. We explore three economic scenarios – shocks – of how the pandemic disease might impact the economy of Montenegro in the dawn of entering the European Union. We forecast a sustainable GDP growth model from January 2006 until December 2017. Deterministic-static simulation solution model – the baseline – is employed, adding sensitivity scenarios – shocks – from January 2018 until Jun 2018, respectively, from -10% until -60%. Thus, we observe what happens to GDP, capital stock, human capital, and employment. The model measures econometrically the macroeconomic costs, using Bayesian VAR independent Normal-Wishart prior, of the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply lost due to illness and closed activities in the GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. The supply side is hit severely through employment and human capital, while the demand through the capital stock. The measures, focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegro’s companies are justified public finance spending.The results show a toll on the GDP, employment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2018. Still, most likely, fast recovery of GDP growth is predicted in 2019 in case macroprudential policymakers make an appropriate fiscal and monetary combination puzzle.

Demographic Change, Prostitution, and Sexually Transmitted Infection Rates in China

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avraham Ebenstein ◽  
Ethan J. Sharygin
Keyword(s):  
Sex Work ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Transmitted Infection ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
History Of

China has experienced an explosion in the sex ratio at birth, with 25 million more men than women younger than 20 (2005 census). This chapter examines the implications of large numbers of men failing to marry on the supply-and-demand dynamics of sex work, with a focus on how this affects the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The chapter begins with a history of prostitution in China and describes the massive increase in sex work following economic reforms in the late 1970s. It then analyzes the current dynamics of demand and supply for sex work in China, using national census data and detailed microdata on sex workers. The authors find a clear link between high-population sex ratios, the prevalence of sex work, and STI rates. The analysis concludes with projections for the future and a discussion of policy responses in light of an anticipated increase in sex work.

scholarly journals Analysis of inflation management model factors as regards supply and demand

Ekonomika ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-63
Author(s):  
Dainius Butautas
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Pair Correlation ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
General Government ◽  
Linear Correlation Analysis

This article analyses the demand and supply aspects of the determinants of CPI inflation in Lithuania in 1998–2008. Content analysis was used to identify and group significant demand and supply inflation factors and using RGT, objectively assess and generalize the results. Pair linear correlation analysis confirmed the significance for CPI inflation of the factors identified through content analysis, and both research methods reliably and effectively helped to identify factors for regression models of inflation. Content analysis revealed that the causes of inflation most often mentioned and traditionally regarded as significant in the economic literature are factors such as money and wages, capital, competition and monopolies, and so on. Pair correlation research showed the significance for inflation of supply and demand factors such as income distribution, income levels, taxes, saving, human capital and labour productivity as well as exports and imports – things which content analysis gave only average or little mention. Regression models confirmed and helped to concretize the significance for inflation of the identified demand and supply factors. The results of the research show that inconsistent monetary and general government expenditure policies reinforce private consumption and capital shocks. Note that human capital and employment, which changed little during the analysed period, did not show the large significance for inflation that they are commonly thought to have.

scholarly journals Addressing the Licensed Doctor Maldistribution in China: A Demand-And-Supply Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Zhu ◽  
Chih-Wei Hsieh ◽  
Ying Mao
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Social Health ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Service Demand ◽  
Chinese Policy ◽  
Underlying Causes

Background: The maldistribution of licensed doctors is one of the major challenges faced by the Chinese health sector. However, this subject remains underexplored, as the underlying causes of licensed doctor distribution have not been fully mapped out. To fill the research void, this study theoretically modeled and empirically measured various determinants of licensed doctor distribution from both the supply and demand sides while taking the spillover effect between the adjacent geographical units into consideration. Methods: The theory of demand and supply is adopted to construct a research framework so as to explain the imbalance in the licensed doctor distribution. Both direct effects and spillover effects of the supply-side factors and demand-side factors are empirically measured with the spatial panel econometric models. Results: The health service demand was found, as expected, to be the major driving force of the licensed doctor distribution across the nation. That is, the increase in health services demands in a province could significantly help one unit attract licensed doctors from adjacent units. Unexpectedly but intriguingly, the medical education capacity showed a relatively limited effect on increasing the licensed doctor density in local units compared with its spillover effect on neighboring units. In addition, government and social health expenditures played different roles in the health labor market, the former being more effective in increasing the stock of clinicians and public health doctors, the latter doing better in attracting dentists and general practitioners. Conclusions: The results provide directions for Chinese policy makers to formulate more effective policies, including a series of measures to boost the licensed doctor stock in disadvantaged areas, such as the increase of government or social health expenditures, more quotas for medical universities, and the prevention of a brain drain of licensed doctors.

scholarly journals Tracking inflation on a daily basis

2020 ◽  
Vol 156 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago E. Alvarez ◽  
Sarah M. Lein
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Real Time Information ◽  
Time Information

Abstract Using online data for prices and real-time debit card transaction data on changes in expenditures for Switzerland allows us to track inflation on a daily basis. While the daily price index fluctuates around the official price index in normal times, it drops immediately after the lockdown related to the COVID19 pandemic. Official statistics reflect this drop only with a lag, specifically because data collection takes time and is impeded by lockdown conditions. Such daily real-time information can be useful to gauge the relative importance of demand and supply shocks and thus inform policymakers who need to determine appropriate policy measures.

scholarly journals Economic Freedom, Human Rights, and the Returns to Human Capital: An Evaluation of the Schultz Hypothesis

2012 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth M. King ◽  
Claudio E. Montenegro ◽  
Peter F. Orazem
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Freedom

scholarly journals Measuring the UK's human capital stock

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. 36-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Jones ◽  
Blessing Chiripanhura
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock

Managerial Economics – Family Medicine Care

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ecler Jaqua ◽  
Terry Jaqua ◽  
Van Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Family Medicine ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Pricing Strategy ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Business Opportunity ◽  
Is Research ◽  
The Us ◽  
Managerial Economics

Supply and demand are amongst the essential requirements before starting up a business. Understanding the quantity of a commodity wished to be sold by producers based on different prices and the item needed by consumers wish purchasing is essential in coming up with ideas. Based on the understanding of this and background research on costs in healthcare, specifically family medicine, it is found that healthcare is amongst the essential requirements, and thus the critical focus of the business idea in a physician’s practice focusing on family medicine care in the US. Starting up the business is based on healthcare demands in the market and further the pricing strategy utilized by most family medicine clinics. Through a connection to the business based on visits in hospitals and the quality offered by these service providers, it is noted that the demand is high and is the most expensive sector in the world, but care is ineffective (The Peterson Center on Healthcare, n.d.) thus leading to searching for effective alternatives by consumers. This creates a potential for offering the most effective services to cater to the demands, and as noted by the Peterson Center on Healthcare (n.d.), the US healthcare system is the most expensive, and costs are projected to grow dramatically in the coming years thus creating the most significant business opportunity to entrepreneurs. By adjusting the resources and trying to cater to the demand in various locations, the key idea is to cater to the need and profit from the sector. The concern of gaining information in the market is research on different healthcare websites and the prices offered and the quality of their services. This will aid in adjusting the prices effectively and thus retaining the demand and supply chain.

ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINE'S HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT IN WORLD RATINGS IN CONDITIONS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryna Nochka ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
World Economic Forum ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The University

The article is devoted to the analysis tools for assessing human capital based on world rankings in the context of sustainable development. The most famous world rankings of human capital, studied by such international organizations as the World Bank, the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, the University of Groningen in collaboration with the University of California at Davis and others, are considered. Quantifying human capital as the economic and social value of a skill set is measured through an index. Each organization makes measurements according to its own method. The application of different criteria and indicators for assessing human capital at the macroeconomic level is analyzed. The considered assessment methodologies are overwhelmingly based on statistical approaches. Analyzed the position of Ukraine in the world rankings in recent years in dynamics. It has been confirmed that these international ratings can be considered as a reflection of the state of human capital in Ukraine. Revealed quite high rating positions of Ukraine in comparison with other countries. The results allow us to conclude that there is insufficient government funding for the development of human capital. It is concluded that Ukraine needs to improve the quality of human capital as a leading factor in increasing the efficiency of the country's economy in the context of sustainable development. The study showed that the use of high-quality, highly qualified human capital leads to an improvement in the country's position in the world rankings.

Growth prospects, market challenges and policy measures: evolution of mobile broadband in Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shehzad Hanif ◽  
Shao Yunfei ◽  
Muhammad Imran Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Developing Country ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mobile Broadband ◽  
Broadband Service ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Government

Purpose The paper aims to explore the long-term prospects of mobile broadband adoption in a developing country. The supply-side and demand-side policy measures are recommended to counter the challenges to broadband adoption. Design/methodology/approach Methodologically, this study uses document analysis to explain secondary data including growth statistics, trade literature and previous scholarly research. Based on the growth statistics of broadband and the informed market insights, the research discusses the prevailing market threats and recommends counter measures to improve the long-term prospects of broadband propagation. Findings The growth of mobile broadband is settling down in Pakistan due to various barriers like cost, literacy, security and unavailability of local content. Collaborative efforts are required by the government, the service providers and the people to enhance the adoption of broadband service and secure economic benefits of the broadband. Practical implications The research offers useful implications for managers and policymakers in Asian and African developing countries; the policy measures discussed here may serve as guidelines for them in the design of their own policies regarding broadband supply and demand. Originality/value The study makes an effort to examine the broadband growth in a developing country on the basis of both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The research endeavors to fill the gap on the particular scholarship of research covering potential uptake of broadband services and the effects of constraining elements to broadband adoption in a developing country.

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