scholarly journals Solving Partially Observable Stochastic Games with Public Observations

Author(s):  
Karel Horák ◽  
Branislav Bošanský

In many real-world problems, there is a dynamic interaction between competitive agents. Partially observable stochastic games (POSGs) are among the most general formal models that capture such dynamic scenarios. The model captures stochastic events, partial information of players about the environment, and the scenario does not have a fixed horizon. Solving POSGs in the most general setting is intractable.Therefore, the research has been focused on subclasses of POSGs that have a value of the game and admit designing (approximate) optimal algorithms. We propose such a subclass for two-player zero-sum games with discounted-sum objective function—POSGs with public observations (POPOSGs)—where each player is able to reconstruct beliefs of the other player over the unobserved states. Our results include: (1) theoretical analysis of PO-POSGs and their value functions showing convexity (concavity) in beliefs of maximizing (minimizing) player, (2) a novel algorithm for approximating the value of the game, and (3) a practical demonstration of scalability of our algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm can closely approximate the value of non-trivial games with hundreds of states.

2004 ◽  
Vol 121 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. Ghosh ◽  
D. McDonald ◽  
S. Sinha

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1026-1041
Author(s):  
K. Avrachenkov ◽  
V. Ejov ◽  
J. A. Filar ◽  
A. Moghaddam

2001 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Jaśkiewicz ◽  
Andrzej S. Nowak

Author(s):  
Anna Jaśkiewicz ◽  
Andrzej S. Nowak
Keyword(s):  

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 835-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mrinal K. Ghosh ◽  
K. Suresh Kumar ◽  
Chandan Pal

Mathematics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
Zehra Eksi ◽  
Daniel Schreitl

The Bitcoin market exhibits characteristics of a market with pricing bubbles. The price is very volatile, and it inherits the risk of quickly increasing to a peak and decreasing from the peak even faster. In this context, it is vital for investors to close their long positions optimally. In this study, we investigate the performance of the partially observable digital-drift model of Ekström and Lindberg and the corresponding optimal exit strategy on a Bitcoin trade. In order to estimate the unknown intensity of the random drift change time, we refer to Bitcoin halving events, which are considered as pivotal events that push the price up. The out-of-sample performance analysis of the model yields returns values ranging between 9% and 1153%. We conclude that the return of the initiated Bitcoin momentum trades heavily depends on the entry date: the earlier we entered, the higher the expected return at the optimal exit time suggested by the model. Overall, to the extent of our analysis, the model provides a supporting framework for exit decisions, but is by far not the ultimate tool to succeed in every trade.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain Sorin ◽  
Guillaume Vigeral
Keyword(s):  

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