Nest density and competing risks: A long-term investigation of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nest survival

2021 ◽  
Vol 132 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda W. Van Dellen ◽  
James S. Sedinger
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-120
Author(s):  
James S. Sedinger ◽  
Thomas V. Riecke ◽  
Phillip A. Street ◽  
Julian B. Fischer

Abstract The number of black brant Branta bernicla nigricans nests within major breeding colonies on the Yukon-Kuskowkim Delta has declined since 1992. It has been hypothesized that these declines are partially explained by increased numbers of black brant breeding outside of these colonies. To assess this hypothesis, we analyzed spatiotemporal patterns in numbers of black brant nests occurring outside major colonies. Nesting densities of black brant vary among three strata: 1) peripheral to major colonies, 2) other coastal habitats, and 3) inland habitats. We sampled some substrata within each stratum type only between 1986 and 1999 (historical strata), whereas we sampled others over the period 1986–2016 (long-term strata). We fit regression models with number of nests on a plot as a response variable, a log link, and year as the explanatory variable. We allowed each stratum (e.g., historical peripheral) to have its own intercept to account for variation in mean nest density but constrained linear and quadratic regression coefficients to be the same for strata in similar habitats (e.g., historical and long-term peripheral). We used a negative binomial distribution for nests to allow for substantial variation in nests per plot. We fit models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in JAGS. Ninety-five percent credible intervals for both linear and quadratic coefficients for the peripheral and coastal strata, where most nests occurred, broadly overlapped zero, indicating modest trends in numbers of nests in these strata. We estimated there were 6,584 (95% credible interval: 4,221−11,269) dispersed nests in 1986, increasing to 11,051 (95% credible interval: 7,450−17,460) in 2016. Our results indicated that increases in dispersed nests were unable to replace declines in colony nests. Furthermore, quadratic trends indicated that potential earlier annual increases in dispersed nests have declined to zero. We conclude that total numbers of black brant nests on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta are likely declining, consistent with the trend in fall age ratios over the same period. Uncertainty about trends in areas not sampled since 1994 adds to the uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the decline. We recommend that the area sampled by the random plot program be expanded to include strata sampled only before 1995.


Ecology ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 79 (6) ◽  
pp. 1893-1904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Lindberg ◽  
James S. Sedinger ◽  
Dirk V. Derksen ◽  
Robert F. Rockwell

The Condor ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 106 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Ward ◽  
Joel A. Schmutz ◽  
James S. Sedinger ◽  
Karen S. Bollinger ◽  
Philip D. Martin ◽  
...  

Abstract First-year survival has important implications for the structure and growth of populations. We examined variation in seasonal survival of first-year Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) marked late in summer in Alaska at two brood-rearing areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Tutakoke and Kokechik) and one area on the Arctic Coastal Plain to provide insight into the magnitude and timing of mortality during fall migration. First-year survival was lower in early fall (15 July–1 October), when birds fledged from brood-rearing areas and migrated to their primary fall staging area at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, than during late fall and early winter (1 October–15 February), when birds made a long-distance transoceanic flight (>5000 km) to wintering areas in Baja California, Mexico. When compared to other years, monthly survival during early fall was 20–24% lower in 1992, the year of latest hatch dates and slowest growth of goslings. There was strong evidence to indicate that survival varied geographically within the early fall period. Monthly survival estimates during early fall were lowest for birds from Tutakoke, highest for birds from the Arctic Coastal Plain, and intermediate at Kokechik. Our findings revealed that most juvenile mortality occurred during the first 2 months following banding, and variation in juvenile survival during this period was likely influenced significantly by environmental parameters and habitat conditions on the breeding grounds. Monthly survival estimates during the subsequent 4 months were similar across geographic areas, and long-distance migration was likely the most important contributor to juvenile mortality during this period. Variación Temporal y Geográfica en la Supervivencia de Juveniles de Branta bernicla nigricans Resumen. La supervivencia durante el primer año de vida tiene implicancias importantes para la estructura y el crecimiento de las poblaciones. Examinamos la variación en la supervivencia estacional en individuos añales de Branta bernicla nigricans marcados al final del verano en Alaska en dos áreas de cría del Delta Yukon-Kuskokwim (Tutakoke y Kokechik) y un área en la planicie costera ártica para brindar información sobre la magnitud y el esquema temporal de mortalidad durante la migración de otoño. La supervivencia durante el primer año fue menor a principios del otoño (15 July–1 October), cuando las aves abandonaron las áreas de cría y migraron hacia el área principal de permanencia otoñal en Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, que durante fines de otoño y comienzos del invierno (1 October–15 February), cuando las aves realizaron un vuelo transoceánico de larga distancia (>5000 km) hacia las áreas de invernada en Baja California, México. Comparando con otros años, la supervivencia mensual durante principios del otoño fue un 20–24% menor en 1992, el año con fechas más tardías de eclosión y con crecimiento más lento de los polluelos. Hubo fuerte evidencia para indicar que la supervivencia varió geográficamente a principios del otoño. Las estimaciones mensuales de supervivencia durante principios del otoño fueron menores para las aves de Tutakoke, mayores para las aves de la planicie costera ártica, e intermedias para Kokechik. Nuestros resultados revelaron que la mayoría de la mortalidad juvenil ocurrió durante los dos primeros meses luego del anillado, y la variación en la supervivencia de los juveniles durante este período fue probablemente influenciada de forma significativa por parámetros ambientales y condiciones del hábitat en las áreas de cría. Las estimaciones mensuales de supervivencia durante los cuatro meses siguientes fueron similares para las distintas áreas geográficas, y la migración de larga distancia fue probablemente la causa más importante de mortalidad juvenil durante este período.


The Auk ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 121 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-73
Author(s):  
James S. Sedinger ◽  
Mark P. Herzog ◽  
David H. Ward

Abstract In geese, growth regulates survival in the first year. We examined whether early growth, which is primarily governed by environmental conditions, also affects the probability that individuals that survive their first year enter the breeding population. We used logistic regression on a sample of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) that were weighed at a known age in their first summer and observed during winter (indicating that they had survived the principal mortality period in their first year) to study whether early growth influenced the probability that those individuals would be recruited into the breeding population. We also examined the effects of cohort (1986–1996), sex, age when measured, and area where individuals were reared. The model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion score contained body mass, age (days) at measurement, cohort, sex, and brood-rearing area. Models that included variable mass had 85% of the cumulative model weight of the models we considered, indicating that gosling mass had a substantial effect on probability of them entering the breeding population. Females were more likely to be detected breeding than males, which is consistent with the differential fidelity of the sexes. Of individuals that survived the first year, larger goslings were more likely to become breeders. More recent cohorts were less likely to have been detected as breeders. Our findings indicate that environment during the growth period affects the ability of individuals to enter the breeding population, even after accounting for the effects of growth on survival.


2012 ◽  
Vol 126 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
C. Martin Lok ◽  
Jaap A. J. Vink

Bird observations from the Cambridge Bay area on Victoria Island, Nunavut, in the summer of 2011 are presented and compared with those from the 1960s and 1980s. A total of 38 species was observed, compared with 42 in 1983 and 47 in 1986. Abundance of species of the High Arctic, such as Black Brant, Branta bernicla nigricans, Black-bellied Plover, Pluvialis squatarola, and Baird’s Sandpiper, Calidris bairdii, decreased, whereas numbers of the Red-necked Phalarope, Phalaropus lobatus, usually associated with the Low Arctic, increased markedly. Overall, the number of each species observed is rather stable and, for several species, the relative abundance does not seem to have changed significantly.


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