Credible Interval
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2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Alderton ◽  
Meredith O'Connor ◽  
Karen Villanueva ◽  
Lucy Gunn ◽  
Gavin Turrell ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Mental health inequities are shaped by the environments where children develop, including neighbourhoods. Children living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods tend to have poorer development outcomes, yet little evidence has examined positive mental health outcomes, like competence, in young children. Methods We examined associations between neighbourhood disadvantage and young children’s competence, as well as mental health difficulties (internalising and externalising), holding constant demographic characteristics and maternal education using multilevel logistic regression (Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation). Data were from the 2018 Australian Early Development Census, including over 250,000 children entering their first year of school (age approximately 5 years). Results Children living in Australia’s most disadvantaged neighbourhoods had higher odds of externalising difficulties (AOR: 1.34; 95% credible interval 1.29 to 1.38), internalising difficulties (AOR: 1.29; 95% credible interval 1.24 to 1.33), and lower odds of competence (AOR: 0.72; 95% credible interval 0.69 to 0.74) than children in the least disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Conclusions Across both mental health difficulties and competence, neighbourhood-level inequities were evident. Future research should identify specific neighbourhood features that could address these inequities. Availability of population linked geospatial and child development data in Australia offers opportunities to address these gaps and is prioritised as the next step in this research program. Key messages Children in disadvantaged neighbourhoods face lower likelihood of positive mental health (competence) and higher likelihood of mental health difficulties. Identifying specific neighbourhood features that could address these inequities is a priority.


2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brooklyn Fraser ◽  
Leigh Blizzard ◽  
Marie-Jeanne Buscot ◽  
Michael Schmidt ◽  
Terence Dwyer ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Low physical fitness, including muscular strength and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), is a risk factor for the metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, it is unknown how physical fitness at different life stages contributes to the development of MetS. Methods Included were 783 Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study participants who between 1985 and 2019 had measures of physical fitness (muscular strength: dominant grip strength; CRF: 1.6km run or physical work capacity at 170 beats per minute) at three life stages (childhood=7–15 years, young-adulthood=26–36 years, mid-adulthood=36–49 years) and had their MetS status assessed using the harmonised definition in mid-adulthood. The Bayesian relevant life-course exposure model, a novel statistical analytic technique, quantified associations between physical fitness at each life stage with MetS and estimated the maximum accumulated effect of physical fitness across the life-course. Results The contribution of muscular strength at each life stage with MetS in mid-adulthood was equal (childhood=36%, young-adulthood=31%, mid-adulthood=33%), whereas for CRF the greatest contribution was from childhood and mid-adulthood (childhood=41%, young-adulthood=20%, mid-adulthood=39%). A one standard deviation increase in cumulative physical fitness across the life-course was associated with 36–55% reduced odds of MetS (muscular strength: OR = 0.64, 95%Credible Interval=0.40,0.95; CRF: OR = 0.45, 95%Credible Interval=0.30,0.64). Conclusions As physical fitness at each life stage was associated with MetS in mid-adulthood, strategies aimed at increasing both childhood and adult physical fitness levels could improve future health. Key messages Increased participation in both aerobic and muscle-strengthening activities, beginning in childhood and extending into adulthood, could be encouraged to help prevent MetS.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul M McKeigue ◽  
Raj Burgul ◽  
Jennifer Bishop ◽  
Chris Robertson ◽  
Jim McMenamin ◽  
...  

Objectives - To investigate the association of primary acute cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) with COVID-19 vaccination through complete ascertainment of all diagnosed CVT in the population of Scotland. Design - Case-crossover study comparing recent (1-14 days after vaccination) with less recent exposure to vaccination among cases of CVT. Setting - National data for Scotland from 1 December 2020, with diagnosed CVT case ascertainment through neuroimaging studies up to 17 May 2021 and diagnostic coding of hospital discharges up to 28 April 2021 and with linkage to vaccination records. Main outcome measure - Primary acute cerebral venous thrombosis Results - Of 50 primary acute CVT cases, 29 were ascertained only from neuroimaging studies, 2 were ascertained only from hospital discharges, and 19 were ascertained from both sources. Of these 50 cases, 14 had received the Astra-Zeneca ChAdOx1 vaccine and 3 the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine. The incidence of CVT per million doses in the first 14 days after vaccination was 2.2 (95% credible interval 0.9 to 4.1) for ChAdOx1 and 1 (95% credible interval 0.1 to 2.9) for BNT162b2. The rate ratio for CVT associated with exposure to ChAdOx1-S in the first 14 days compared with exposure 15-84 days after vaccination was 3.2 (95% credible interval 1.1 to 9.5). The 95% credible interval for the rate ratio associated with recent versus less recent exposure to BNT162b2 (0.6 to 95.8) was too wide for useful inference. Conclusions - These findings support a causal association between CVT and the AstraZeneca vaccine with too few cases with Pfizer vaccine to make inference on any causal relationship. The absolute risk of post-vaccination CVT in this population-wide study in Scotland was lower than has been reported for populations in Scandinavia and Germany; the reasons for this remain to be established.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Anna Lea Albright ◽  
Cristian Proistosescu ◽  
Peter Huybers

AbstractA variety of empirical estimates have been published for the lower bounds on aerosol radiative forcing, clustered around -1.0 Wm−2 or -2.0 Wm−2. The reasons for obtaining such different constraints are not well understood. In this study, we explore bounds on aerosol radiative forcing using a Bayesian model of aerosol forcing and Earth’s multi-timescale temperature response to radiative forcing. We first demonstrate the ability of a simple aerosol model to emulate aerosol radiative forcing simulated by ten general circulation models. A joint inference of climate sensitivity and effective aerosol forcing from historical surface temperatures is then made over 1850–2019. We obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of aerosol radiative forcing of -0.85 Wm−2 [5-95% credible interval -1.3 to -0.50 Wm−2] for 2010–2019 relative to 1750 and an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.4°C [5-95% credible interval 1.8 to 6.1°C]. The wide range of climate sensitivity reflects difficulty in empirically constraining long-term responses using historical temperatures, as noted elsewhere. A relatively tight bound on aerosol forcing is nonetheless obtained from the structure of temperature and aerosol precursor emissions and, particularly, from the rapid growth in emissions between 1950–1980. Obtaining a fifth-percentile lower bound on aerosol forcing around -2.0 Wm−2 requires prescribing internal climate variance that is a factor of five larger than the CMIP6 mean and assuming large, correlated errors in global temperature observations. Ocean heat uptake observations may further constrain aerosol radiative forcing but require a better understanding of the relationship between time-variable radiative feedbacks and radiative forcing.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Bhatia ◽  
Kris Parag ◽  
Jack Wardle ◽  
Natsuko Imai ◽  
Sabine van Elsland ◽  
...  

Abstract From 8th March to 29th November 2020, we produced weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for 81 countries with evidence of sustained transmission. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3\% and 45.6\% of the observations lying in the 50\% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. We could accurately characterise the overall phase of the epidemic up to 4-weeks ahead in 84.9\% of country-days. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond M Duch ◽  
Adrian Barnett ◽  
Maciej Filipek ◽  
Laurence Roope ◽  
Mara Violato ◽  
...  

Governments are considering financial incentives to increase vaccine uptake to end the COVID-19 pandemic. Incentives being offered include cash-equivalents such as vouchers or being entered into lotteries. Our experiment involved random assignment of 1,628 unvaccinated participants in the United States to one of three 45 second informational videos promoting vaccination with messages about: (a) health benefits of COVID-19 vaccines (control); (b) being entered into lotteries; or (c) receiving cash equivalent vouchers. After seeing the control health information video, 16% of individuals wanted information on where to get vaccinated. This compared with 14% of those assigned to the lottery video (odds ratio of 0.82 relative to control: 95% credible interval 0.57-1.17) and 22% of those assigned to the cash voucher video (odds ratio of 1.53 relative to control: 95% credible interval 1.11-2.11). These results support greater use of cash vouchers to promote COVID-19 vaccine uptake and do not support the use of lottery incentives.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Dorigatti ◽  
Enrico Lavezzo ◽  
Laura Manuto ◽  
Constanze Ciavarella ◽  
Monia Pacenti ◽  
...  

AbstractIn February and March 2020, two mass swab testing campaigns were conducted in Vo’, Italy. In May 2020, we tested 86% of the Vo’ population with three immuno-assays detecting antibodies against the spike and nucleocapsid antigens, a neutralisation assay and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Subjects testing positive to PCR in February/March or a serological assay in May were tested again in November. Here we report on the results of the analysis of the May and November surveys. We estimate a seroprevalence of 3.5% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 2.8–4.3%) in May. In November, 98.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 93.7–100.0%) of sera which tested positive in May still reacted against at least one antigen; 18.6% (95% CI: 11.0–28.5%) showed an increase of antibody or neutralisation reactivity from May. Analysis of the serostatus of the members of 1,118 households indicates a 26.0% (95% CrI: 17.2–36.9%) Susceptible-Infectious Transmission Probability. Contact tracing had limited impact on epidemic suppression.


Author(s):  
MD Sultan Ali ◽  
Angela E. Kitali ◽  
John H. Kodi ◽  
Priyanka Alluri ◽  
Thobias Sando

Transit signal priority (TSP) is a strategy that prioritizes the movement of transit vehicles through a signalized intersection to provide better transit travel time reliability and minimize transit delay. Although TSP is primarily intended to improve the operational performance of transit vehicles, it may also have substantial safety benefits. This study explored the potential safety benefits of the TSP strategy deployed at various locations in Florida. An observational before–after full Bayes (FB) approach with a comparison group was adopted to estimate the crash modification factors (CMFs) for total crashes, rear-end crashes, sideswipe crashes, and angle crashes. The analysis was based on 12 corridors equipped with the TSP system and their corresponding 29 comparison corridors without the TSP system. The deployment of TSP was found to reduce total crashes by 7.2% (CMF = 0.928), rear-end crashes by 5.2% (CMF = 0.948), and angle crashes by 21.9% (CMF = 0.781), and these results are statistically significant at a 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) except for the rear-end crashes. On the other hand, sideswipe crashes increased by 6% (CMF = 1.060) although the increase was not significant at a 95% BCI. Overall, the results indicated that TSP improves safety. The findings of this study may present key considerations for transportation agencies and practitioners when planning future TSP deployments.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maylis Layan ◽  
Mayan Gilboa ◽  
Tal Gonen ◽  
Miki Goldenfeld ◽  
Lilac Meltzer ◽  
...  

Background Massive vaccination rollouts against SARS-CoV-2 infections have facilitated the easing of control measures in countries like Israel. While several studies have characterized the effectiveness of vaccines against severe forms of COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimates of their impact on transmissibility remain limited. Here, we evaluated the role of vaccination and isolation on SARS-CoV-2 transmission within Israeli households. Methods From December 2020 to April 2021, confirmed cases were identified among healthcare workers of the Sheba Medical Centre and their family members. Households were recruited and followed up with repeated PCR for a minimum of ten days after case confirmation. Symptoms and vaccination information were collected at the end of follow-up. We developed a data augmentation Bayesian framework to ascertain how age, isolation and BNT162b2 vaccination with more than 7 days after the 2nd dose impacted household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Findings 210 households with 215 index cases were enrolled. 269 out of 687 (39%) household contacts developed a SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of those, 170 (63%) developed symptoms. Children below 12 years old were less susceptible than adults/teenagers (Relative Risk RR=0.50, 95% Credible Interval CI 0.32-0.79). Vaccination reduced the risk of infection among adults/teenagers (RR=0.19, 95% CI 0.07-0.40). Isolation reduced the risk of infection of unvaccinated adult/teenager (RR=0.11, 95% CI 0.05-0.19) and child contacts (RR=0.16, 95% CI 0.07-0.31) compared to unvaccinated adults/teenagers that did not isolate. Infectivity was significantly reduced in vaccinated cases (RR=0.22, 95% CI 0.06-0.70). Interpretation Within households, vaccination reduces both the risk of infection and of transmission if infected. When contacts were not vaccinated, isolation also led to important reductions in the risk of transmission. Vaccinated contacts might reduce their risk of infection if they isolate, although this requires confirmation with additional data. Funding Sheba Medical Center.


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