Pandemic influenza - including a risk assessment of H5N1

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

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Decision letter: Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

10.7554/elife.03883.005 ◽

2014 ◽

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Pandemic Influenza

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Development of a risk assessment methodological framework for potentially pandemic influenza strains (FLURISK)

EFSA Supporting Publications ◽

10.2903/sp.efsa.2014.en-571 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

M. De Nardi ◽

A. Hill ◽

S. von Dobschuetz ◽

O. Munoz ◽

R. Kosmider ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Pandemic Influenza ◽

Methodological Framework

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Author response: Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

10.7554/elife.03883.006 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Colin A Russell ◽

Peter M Kasson ◽

Ruben O Donis ◽

Steven Riley ◽

John Dunbar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Pandemic Influenza ◽

Author Response

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3. Influenza

Infectious Disease: A Very Short Introduction ◽

10.1093/actrade/9780199688937.003.0003 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 27-40

Author(s):

Marta L. Wayne ◽

Benjamin M. Bolker

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Pandemic Influenza ◽

Evolutionary Biology ◽

Disease Outbreak ◽

Bubonic Plague ◽

Evolutionary Potential ◽

14Th Century ◽

H1n1 Strain ◽

Spanish Flu

Influenza, or flu, has caused more deaths than any single disease outbreak since the 14th-century bubonic plague. Twenty to fifty million people worldwide died from the 1918 Spanish Flu, which was an H1N1 strain similar to the 2009 pandemic. ‘Influenza’ considers the attempts to control transmission of flu by reducing encounters, by reducing compatibility (through vaccination), or ideally by a combination of both. The unique evolutionary potential of flu means that both vaccinated people and unvaccinated people who contract flu naturally tend to lose their immunity after a few years. General principles of evolutionary biology, as well as intriguing particulars of flu evolution, are introduced. The politics of research and risk assessment are also discussed.

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Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268816001850 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 144 (16) ◽

pp. 3400-3411

Author(s):

D. C. DOVER ◽

E. M. KIRWIN ◽

N. HERNANDEZ-CERON ◽

K. A. NELSON

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Pandemic Influenza ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Antiviral Treatment ◽

Control Measures ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Risk Level ◽

Risk Assessment Model ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case

SUMMARYThe Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM) is a mathematical model developed to analyse two pandemic influenza control measures available to public health: antiviral treatment and immunization. PRAM is parameterized using surveillance data from Alberta, Canada during pandemic H1N1. Age structure and risk level are incorporated in the compartmental, deterministic model through a contact matrix. The model characterizes pandemic influenza scenarios by transmissibility and severity properties. Simulating a worst-case scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic with immediate stockpile release, antiviral demand is 20·3% of the population. With concurrent, effective and timely immunization strategies, antiviral demand would be significantly less. PRAM will be useful in informing policy decisions such as the size of the Alberta antiviral stockpile and can contribute to other pandemic influenza planning activities and scenario analyses.

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