Disease Outbreak
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2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachele Spadafore ◽  
Ryan Fura ◽  
William F. Precht ◽  
Steven V. Vollmer

Environmental compliance monitoring associated with the Port Miami dredging project (2013–2015), designed to assess the impact of project-generated sediments on the local coral community, fortuitously captured a thermal bleaching event and the first reports of an emergent, highly contagious, white-plague-like coral disease outbreak in the fall of 2014. The disease, now termed stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD), has decimated reefs throughout Florida and is now spreading across the Caribbean. The high prevalence of disease, the number of affected species, and the high mortality of corals affected suggests SCTLD may be the most lethal coral disease ever recorded. Previous analyses of the dredge monitoring data have reached mixed conclusions about the relative impact of dredging on coral mortality and has often parsed out disease susceptible individuals to isolate the impacts of dredging only. We use multi-variate analyses, including time-based survival analyses, to examine the timing and impacts of dredging, coral bleaching, and disease on local coral mortality. By examining the status of corals monthly from the October 2013 to July 2015 observational period, we found that coral mortality was not significantly affected by a coral’s proximity to the dredge site or sediment burial. Instead, coral mortality was most strongly impacted by disease and the emergence of SCTLD during the monitoring period. During the 2-year monitoring period, 26.3% of the monitored corals died, but the only conditions significantly affected by the dredge were partial burial and partial mortality. The strongest link to mortality was due to disease, which impacted coral species differently depending on their susceptibility to SCTLD. The focus on disturbances associated with dredging created a circumstance where the greater impacts of this emergent disease were downplayed, leading to a false narrative of the resulting mortality on the local coral communities. The results of this study reveal that while local events such as a dredging project do have quantifiable effects and can be harmful to corals, regional and global threats that result in mass coral mortality such as thermal stress and disease represent an existential threat to coral reefs and must be urgently addressed.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Schroeder ◽  
Spyridon Lazarakis ◽  
Rebecca Mancy ◽  
Konstantinos Angelopoulos

Abstract We analyse the dynamic evolution of disease outbreak risk after the main waves of the 1918-19 “Spanish flu” pandemic in the US and in major cities in the UK, and after the 1890-91 “Russian flu” pandemic in England and Wales. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main pandemic waves as a sequence of bounded Pareto distributions with an exponentially decaying tail parameter. In all cases, we find elevated mortality risk lasting nearly two decades. An application to COVID-19 under model uncertainty shows that in 90% of model-predicted time series, the annual probability of outbreaks exceeding 500 deaths per million is above 20% for a decade, remaining above 10% for two decades.


Conatus ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Cyril Emeka Ejike

The aim of this paper is to propose that the development and legitimization of African knowledge and validation systems on a pragmatic basis, is an efficient and effective means of responding to a myriad of health problems plaguing Africans, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic. Whenever there is a novel disease outbreak, the norm is to wait for the development of scientifically proven vaccines for its treatment. However, the scientific validation of drugs is a rigorous and lengthy process, thereby inappropriate for dealing with health emergencies like the COVID-19 outbreak. The alarming rapidity with which the novel COVID-19 pandemic rages globally and decimates humanity has brought to the fore the need for Africa to look inwards in search of viable and efficient alternative approaches to the pandemic. In this paper, I examine pragmatism as a theoretical framework and relate it to proposed African epistemic and validation frameworks with a particular reference to homegrown orthodox and alternative/complementary medicines. I argue that the validation and approval of any knowledge claim based on pragmatism is a more expeditious mode of attending to COVID-19 and other prevalent diseases in Africa. The application of knowledge that brings practical success in dealing with health challenges in Africa without necessarily following rigid and lengthy scientific validation procedures will go a long way toward improving human conditions and well-being. I conclude that pragmatic considerations should ultimately inform local approval to homegrown African medicines for use in Africa.


Author(s):  
Raul Villamarin Rodriguez ◽  
Pokala Pranay Kumar

Covid-19 pandemic enhances different opportunities in different sectors. This pandemic also affected many sectors which reduced the growth. Mainly, we are focusing on the agriculture sector which is the main sector that affects on nation’s economy. Covid-19 used to have a major impact on agriculture and agro-industries. The harvest for agricultural products was accomplished, yet farmers were hampered in certain areas leading to a shortage of workers. In this research paper, we are going to discuss the impacts on the agriculture industry. Whereas the disease outbreak poses several immediate challenges again for the agriculture industry. This also provides the opportunity to accelerate reforms inside the food and agriculture sectors in order to further increase their adaptability in face of a variety of challenges, namely changes in the environment. However, there is sufficient evidence to conclude where the Covid-19 disease seems to have a significant influence on the farming and agriculture industry.


mSystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlene K. Wolfe ◽  
Aaron Topol ◽  
Alisha Knudson ◽  
Adrian Simpson ◽  
Bradley White ◽  
...  

Access to reliable, rapid monitoring data is critical to guide response to an infectious disease outbreak. For pathogens that are shed in feces or urine, monitoring wastewater can provide a cost-effective snapshot of transmission in an entire community via a single sample.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 441
Author(s):  
Dao Van Hung ◽  
Nguyen Thi Minh Hue ◽  
Vu Thuy Duong

This paper studies the impacts of COVID-19 on the performance of the Vietnamese Stock Market—a rapidly growing emerging market in a country that has to date successfully controlled the disease outbreak. The study uses a random-effect model (REM) on panel data of stock returns of 733 listed companies on both HOSE (the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange) and HNX (the Hanoi Stock Exchange) from 2 January 2020 to 13 December 2020. The study shows that the number of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Vietnam has a negative impact on stock returns of listed companies in the market. The impacts were more severe for the pre-lockdown and second-wave period, compared to impact for the lockdown period. The impacts also differed across sectors, with the financial sector being the most affected. With significant government control and influence over the bank-dominated financial system, the financial sector was expected to absorb some of the negative shocks hitting the real sector. Such expectations were reflected in the stock market movement during the pandemic.


Author(s):  
Francesca Baratta ◽  
Michele Ciccolella ◽  
Paola Brusa

Community pharmacies are among the most easily accessible health services. Considering the major impact of COVID-19 in social terms, the purpose was to analyse the evolution of the relationship between community pharmacies and customers during the pandemic in 2020 and to understand which strategies should be implemented in the future. The data have been collected from May to December 2020. Pharmacists administered a questionnaire, also available online, to all customers that agreed to participate. The total number of respondents was 502. The results obtained confirm a generally high level of satisfaction with pharmacies among customers and appreciation for the role of community pharmacies. For the future, the priority is to monitor the situation to break down social inequalities. A task that can be entrusted to the branch of the healthcare service ideally suited to this end: local medicine, of which the community pharmacy is an essential element. The post-pandemic pharmacy will need to have the skills to provide accurate and reliable information on issues, including broad topics such as prevention and lifestyle to fight “syndemic” (two or more factors that work together to make a disease worse) and “infodemic” (too much information including false or misleading information during a disease outbreak).


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Schroeder ◽  
Spyridon Lazarakis ◽  
Rebecca Mancy ◽  
Konstantinos Angelopoulos

Abstract We analyse the dynamic evolution of disease outbreak risk after the main waves of the 1918-19 “Spanish flu” pandemic in the US and in major cities in the UK, and after the 1890-91 “Russian flu” pandemic in England and Wales. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main pandemic waves as a sequence of bounded Pareto distributions with an exponentially decaying tail parameter. In all cases, we find elevated mortality risk lasting nearly two decades. An application to COVID-19 under model uncertainty shows that in 80% of model-predicted time series, the annual probability of outbreaks exceeding 500 deaths per million is above 20% for a decade, remaining above 10% for two decades.


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