scholarly journals Next Generation Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

Author(s):  
Chhotu Kumar Keshri ◽  
William Kumar Mohanty

Abstract India's Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and its proximity to the Himalayas are seismically the most vulnerable zone. For seismic hazard analysis, it requires a reliable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for this region. The strong motion accelerometer data are used for the present study from 2005 to 2015. PSA of 5% damped linear pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra at 27 periods ranging from 0.01 s to 10 s used for regression. Two-stage nonlinear regression is used to train the functional form of a nonlinear magnitude scaling, distance scaling, and site conditions. The model includes a regionally independent geometric attenuation finite fault distance metric, style of faulting, shallow site response, basin response, hanging wall effect, hypocentre depth, regionally dependent anelastic attenuation, site conditions, and magnitude-dependent aleatory variability. We consider our new GMPE is valid for earthquakes from active tectonic shallow crustal continental earthquakes for estimating horizontal ground motion for rupture distances ranging from 1 km to 1500 km and magnitudes ranging from 3.3 to 7.9, and focal depth 1-70 km. The proposed GMPEs developed in this study for predicting PGA and PSA are compared with the Campbell and Bozorgnia 2008, 13 and 14, and North Indian GMPEs for IGP, which is agreed upon consistently. Calibration with observed data gives us the confidence to predict the ground motion from the seismic gaps of Himalaya ranges for the Indo-Gangetic plains. The predicted coefficients of the nonlinear model are anticipated to be valuable for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis over the IGP.

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