How well can we predict earthquake site response so far? Site-specific approaches

Earthquake site responses or site effects are the modifications of surface geology to seismic waves. How well can we predict the site effects (average over many earthquakes) at individual sites so far? To address this question, we tested and compared the effectiveness of different estimation techniques in predicting the outcrop Fourier site responses separated using the general inversion technique (GIT) from recordings. Techniques being evaluated are (a) the empirical correction to the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio of earthquakes (c-HVSR), (b) one-dimensional ground response analysis (GRA), and (c) the square-root-impedance (SRI) method (also called the quarter-wavelength approach). Our results show that c-HVSR can capture significantly more site-specific features in site responses than both GRA and SRI in the aggregate, especially at relatively high frequencies. c-HVSR achieves a “good match” in spectral shape at ∼80%–90% of 145 testing sites, whereas GRA and SRI fail at most sites. GRA and SRI results have a high level of parametric and/or modeling errors which can be constrained, to some extent, by collecting on-site recordings.

Experimental Approach on the Study of Ground-Motion Amplification at the Cerro Prieto Volcano, Mexicali Valley, Baja California, Mexico

We conducted experimental work to explain the large peak ground accelerations observed at the Cerro Prieto volcano in Mexicali Valley, Mexico. Using ambient noise and earthquake data, we compared horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) computed for sites on the volcano against those calculated for locations outside it. High-HVSR values (∼11 at ∼2 Hz) were obtained on the top of the volcano at 183 m of altitude, decreasing for sites located at lower elevations. We calculated a median HVSR of ∼1 at 2 Hz from HVSRs computed for nine sites located along an N18°E transect and at an average elevation of ∼25 m. The earlier comparison suggests a relative amplification on the volcano. In addition, we calculated HVSRs from accelerograms generated by 62 earthquakes (2.6≤ML≤5.4; 4.6≤Mw≤7.2) recorded at four locations: two on the volcano (at 194 and 110 m of elevation) and two outside it. These last two sites, located up to 6 km away in a north-northwest and south-southwest direction relative to the volcano, are at an average altitude of 22 m. For the four locations, we also computed the HVSRs from ambient noise data. Although the HVSR results derived from both types of data are slightly different, we also found high HVSRs for the two sites on the volcano and low HVSRs for the two sites outside it, corroborating the relative amplification on the volcano. Using the 1D wave propagation modeling, based on the stiffness matrix method, we modeled the experimental HVSRs to analyze the local site effects. Therefore, we propose that the ground-motion amplification at the Cerro Prieto volcano may be due to a combination of its topography and shallow site effects.

Seismic Soil Characterization to Estimate Site Effects Induced by Near-Fault Earthquakes: The Case Study of Pizzoli (Central Italy) during the Mw 6.7 2 February 1703, Earthquake

Many of the urban settlements in Central Italy are placed nearby active faults and, consequently, the ground motion evaluation and seismic site effects under near-fault earthquakes are noteworthy issues to be investigated. This paper presents the results of site investigations, the seismic site characterization, and the local seismic response for assessing the effects induced by the Mw 6.7 2 February 1703, near-fault earthquake at the Madonna delle Fornaci site (Pizzoli, Central Italy) in which notable ground failure phenomena were observed, as witnessed by several coeval sources. Even though recent papers described these phenomena, the geological characteristics of the site and the failure mechanism have never been assessed through in-situ investigations and numerical modeling. Within a project concerning the assessment of soil liquefaction potential and co-seismic ground failure, deep and shallow continuous core drilling, geophysical investigations and in-hole tests have been carried out. Subsequently, the geotechnical model has been defined and the numerical quantification of the different hypotheses of failure mechanisms has been evaluated. Analyses showed that liquefaction did not occur, and the excess pore water pressure induced by the shaking was not the source of the ground failure. Therefore, it was hypothesized that the sinkhole was likely caused by earthquake-induced gas eruption.

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