Speculative Stock Price and Inadequacy of the Implied Cost of Capital as a Proxy for Expected Return

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Fong
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Renato Salvatore Camodeca ◽  
Christian Prinoth ◽  
Umberto Sagliaschi

The valuation of a company reflects the expected return or equivalently, the cost of capital that investors demand in exchange for the risk assumed. Despite the ex-ante nature of the problem, the majority of empirical analysis has focused on factors explaining expected returns from an ex-post perspective. In this paper, we take a different approach and try to identify which factors are ex-ante included in discount rates, with particular attention to the so-called size premium. Starting from observed market capitalisations and company fundamentals, we obtain the implied cost of capital from the reverse engineering of a carefully designed fundamental valuation model. Panel data regressions are used to investigate the existence of a relation between the implied cost of capital and the firm’s size, including other control variables representative of the most cited asset pricing “anomalies”. Our sample comprises European non-financial stocks listed on primary markets, with half-yearly observations starting from the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Contrary to common wisdom, we find that the firm’s size has no tangible impact to explain the implied cost of capital. 


Author(s):  
Stephen H. Penman ◽  
Julie Zhu ◽  
Haofei Wang

Author(s):  
Dan S. Dhaliwal ◽  
Linda K. Krull ◽  
Oliver Zhen Li ◽  
William Moser

Author(s):  
Bill Y. Shen

We propose a possible alternative to WACC as cost of capital for a business investment decision through option theory. The cost of capital in this new definition becomes forward-looking and easy to compute with traded market information as inputs. More importantly, it is a fair value- based approach and does not depend on investors’ own expectation. An important parameter “asset characteristic value” is identified and its role is further illustrated by using Merton’s capital structure model. Asset characteristic value can be calibrated by using stock price or credit spread observed from a secondary market.


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