The global financial crisis and its effects on the international monetary funds

ABSTRACT This paper aims to analyze the innovations introduced in the functions of the International Monetary Fund in the context of the 2008 economic and financial crisis. This promoted an action that aimed to strengthen the surveillance function through the adoption of the Integrated Surveillance. Thus, alongside the traditional conditionality based on an a posteriori implementation of adequate economic policies, a criterion of ex ante conditionality in the precautionary branches was also introduced or based on the economic characteristics of the country to be financed. Concerning traditional conditionality, it will be asked whether the IMF has adopted a less extensive approach than its role.

Losers of CEO Tournaments: Incentives, Turnover, and Career Outcomes

We investigate the consequences for non-promoted executives (NPEs) in CEO tournaments. We find that NPEs’ total incentives decrease following the end of a tournament based on evidence of their reduced future promotion prospects and limited adjustments to their compensation. Consistent with the theory that NPEs leave in response to this loss in incentives, results indicate that turnover is higher for NPEs who: 1) are ex ante more competitive for promotion, 2) compete in open tournaments without an heir apparent versus closed tournaments with an heir apparent winner, and 3) compete in tournaments with an outsider versus insider winner. Departed NPEs’ subsequent career outcomes suggest that the labor market assesses NPEs who leave after open tournaments more favorably than those who leave after closed tournaments and tournaments with an outsider winner. Overall, evidence suggests that promotion tournaments can weed out low-quality managers but also cause the unintended turnover of high-quality managers.

Coordination on networks with farsighted and myopic agents

We study a coordination game on a fixed connected network where players have to choose between two projects. Some players are moderate (i.e. they are ex-ante indifferent between both projects) while others are stubborn (i.e. they always choose the same project). Benefits for moderate players are increasing in the number of neighbors who choose the same project. In addition, players are either farsighted or myopic. Farsighted players anticipate the reactions of others while myopic players do not. We show that, when all players are farsighted, full coordination among the moderate players is reached except if there are stubborn players for both projects. When the population is mixed, the set of stable strategy profiles is a refinement of the set of Nash equilibrium strategy profiles. In fact, turning myopic players into farsighted ones eliminates gradually the inefficient Nash equilibria. Finally, we consider a social planner who can improve coordination by means of two policy instruments: adding links to the network (socialization) and/or turning myopic players into farsighted ones (education).

Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836–2016

Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election— have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within 1 point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40 percent will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods—despite differences in which groups voted, which states existed, and which parties participated. Our findings imply that the United States has experienced so few inversions merely because there have been so few elections (and fewer close elections). (JEL D72, N41, N42)