TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND PROBABILITY FORECASTING FOR THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

1985 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Jarrell ◽  
Brand
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Probability Forecasting

scholarly journals On tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Trends and the ENSO connection

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Kuleshov ◽  
L. Qi ◽  
R. Fawcett ◽  
D. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity

Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Forecasting.

1978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerry D. Jarrell
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Probability Forecasting

scholarly journals A High-Resolution Simulation of Asymmetries in Severe Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Larry (2006)

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (12) ◽  
pp. 4171-4187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
Jeffrey D. Kepert
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Frictional Convergence

Abstract Advances in observations, theory, and modeling have revealed that inner-core asymmetries are a common feature of tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, the inner-core asymmetries of a severe Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone, TC Larry (2006), are investigated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Kepert–Wang boundary layer model. The MM5-simulated TC exhibited significant asymmetries in the inner-core region, including rainfall distribution, surface convergence, and low-level vertical motion. The near-core environment was characterized by very low environmental vertical shear and consequently the TC vortex had almost no vertical tilt. It was found that, prior to landfall, the rainfall asymmetry was very pronounced with precipitation maxima consistently to the right of the westward direction of motion. Persistent maxima in low-level convergence and vertical motion formed ahead of the translating TC, resulting in deep convection and associated hydrometeor maxima at about 500 hPa. The asymmetry in frictional convergence was mainly due to the storm motion at the eyewall, but was dominated by the proximity to land at larger radii. The displacement of about 30°–120° of azimuth between the surface and midlevel hydrometeor maxima is explained by the rapid cyclonic advection of hydrometeors by the tangential winds in the TC core. These results for TC Larry support earlier studies that show that frictional convergence in the boundary layer can play a significant role in determining the asymmetrical structures, particularly when the environmental vertical shear is weak or absent.

scholarly journals Prospects for Improving the Operational Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 298-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuriy Kuleshov ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Jemishabye Apajee ◽  
Robert Fawcett ◽  
David Jones
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity

Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 2. Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony J. Bannister ◽  
Mark A. Boothe ◽  
Lester E. Carr ◽  
Elsberry III ◽  
Russell L.
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Knowledge Base ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone formation regions in CMIP5 models: a global performance assessment and projected changes

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3213-3237
Author(s):  
K. J. Tory ◽  
H. Ye ◽  
G. Brunet
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Performance Assessment ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Future ◽  
Warming World

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation regions are analysed in twelve CMIP5 models using a recently developed diagnostic that provides a model-performance summary in a single image for the mid-summer TC season. A subjective assessment provides an indication of how well the models perform in each TC basin throughout the globe, and which basins can be used to determine possible changes in TC formation regions in a warmer climate. The analysis is necessarily succinct so that seven basins in twelve models can be examined. Consequently, basin performance was reduced to an assessment of two common problems specific to each basin. Basins that were not too adversely affected were included in the projection exercise. The North Indian basin was excluded because the mid-summer analysis period covers a lull in TC activity. Surprisingly, the North Atlantic basin also had to be excluded, because all twelve models failed the performance assessment. A slight poleward expansion in the western North Pacific and an expansion towards the Hawaiian Islands in the eastern North Pacific is plausible in the future, while a contraction in the TC formation regions in the eastern South Indian and western South Pacific basins would reduce the Australian region TC formation area. More than half the models were too active in the eastern South Pacific and South Atlantic basins. However, projections based on the remaining models suggest these basins will remain hostile for TC formation in the future. These southern hemisphere changes are consistent with existing projections of fewer southern hemisphere TCs in a future warming world

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