Seismic analysis using maximum likelihood of gutenberg-richter

An earthquake is one of catastrophe which often claim numerous lives and cause great damage to infrastructure. Multiple studies from various field have been conducted in order to make a precise prediction of earthquake occurrence, such as recognizing the natural phenomena symptoms leading to the shaking and ground rupture. However, up till now there is no definite method that can predict the time and place in which earthquake will occur. By assuming that the number of earthquake follow Gutenberg-Richter law, we work b-value derived using Maximum Likelihood Method to calculate the probability of earthquake happen in the next few years. The southern sea of D.I. Yogyakarta was divided into four areas to simplify the analysis. As the result, in the next five years the first and second area have high enough probability (>0.3) to undergo more than 6.0-magnitude earthquake.

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ANALISIS TINGKAT SEISMISITAS DAN TINGKAT KERAPUHAN BATUAN DI MALUKU UTARA

JURNAL ILMIAH SAINS ◽

10.35799/jis.15.2.2015.9224 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 94

Author(s):

Vienda Gaby Lumintang ◽

Guntur Pasau ◽

Seni J Tongkukut

Keyword(s):

Maximum Likelihood ◽

Maximum Likelihood Method ◽

B Value ◽

Likelihood Method ◽

Earthquake Catalog ◽

Maximum Likelihood Analysis ◽

Repetition Period ◽

Earthquake Recurrence ◽

A Value ◽

Likelihood Analysis

ANALISIS TINGKAT SEISMISITAS DAN TINGKAT KERAPUHAN BATUAN DI MALUKU UTARA ABSTRAK Telah dilakukan penelitian untuk menentukan tingkat seismisitas dan tingkat kerapuhan batuan melalui perhitungan nilai a dan b secara spasial di Maluku Utara menggunakan katalog gempa ANSS tahun 1963-2015 dengan metode maksimum likelihood, menghitung kemungkinan waktu terjadinya kembali gempa bumi merusak secara spasial, serta untuk menenentukan daerah-daerah yang sangat rawan berpotensi gempa merusak di wilayah Maluku Utara. Perhitungan nilai a dan b dari data ANSS untuk wilayah Maluku Utara menunjukkan besar nilai b adalah berkisar pada 0,75-1,5 dan nilai a adalah berkisar pada 6,5-10. Periode ulang gempa bumi untuk wilayah Maluku Utara dengan magnitude Mw = 6,5 adalah 3-19 tahun, gempa dengan magnitude Mw = 7 adalah 5-52 tahun, dan gempa dengan magnitude Mw = 7,5 adalah 15-140 tahun. Daerah-daerah yang berpotensi mengalami gempa bumi merusak adalah wilayah Laut Maluku, Ternate, Tidore, sebagian wilayah Kabupaten Halmahera Utara dan Barat, Pulau Kasiruta dan Pulau Obi. Kata kunci: nilai-b, seismisitas, maximum likelihood ANALYSIS OF SEISMICITY LEVEL AND ROCKS FRAGILITY LEVEL IN NORTH MALUKU ABSTRACT A research has ben conducted to determine the seismicity level and rocks fragility level through spatially calculation of a value and b value in North Maluku using ANSS earthquake catalog of years 1963-2015 with maximum likelihood method, spatially calculate possible time of destructive earthquake recurrence, and to determine areas that highly prone to potentially destructive earthquake in North Maluku. A value and b value calculation of ANSS data of North Maluku region shows that b value is in the range of 0.75-1.5 and a value is in the range of 6.5-10. Earthquake repetition period of North Maluku region based on ANSS data with magnitude Mw = 6.5 is 3-19 years, for earthquake with magnitude Mw = 7 is 5-52 years and for earthquake with magnitude Mw = 7.5 is 15-140 years. Areas that potentially have destructive earthquake is Molucca Sea region, Ternate, Tidore, parts of North and West Halmahera District, Kasiruta Island and Obi Island. Keywords: b value, seismicity, maximum likelihood

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