Mathematical Analysis of Epidemiological Model of Influenza a (H1N1) Virus Transmission Dynamics in Perspective of Bangladesh

This study deals with transmission dynamics of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus to understand the evolution of its epidemic in Bangladesh. For this purpose an SEIR model has been employed to study the dynamics of A (H1N1) virus relating to data of Bangladesh. To find threshold conditions, the equilibria and stability of the equilibria of the model have been determined and also analyzed. Basic Reproductive Number (R0) is determined relating to data of Bangladesh by which Herd Immunity Threshold has been estimated. Our numerical result suggests that vaccinating 12.69% population of Bangladesh can control spread of the pandemic novel A (H1N1) virus when outbreak occurs.GANIT J. Bangladesh Math. Soc.Vol. 37 (2017) 39-50

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Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in Elementary Schools Using the SIR Model

The Open Nursing Journal ◽

10.2174/1874434601711010064 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 64-72 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Daisuke Furushima ◽

Shoko Kawano ◽

Yuko Ohno ◽

Masayuki Kakehashi

Keyword(s):

Elementary Schools ◽

Infection Rate ◽

School Size ◽

Influenza A ◽

Missing Values ◽

Sir Model ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Influenza A H1n1 ◽

Novel Influenza A

Background: The novel influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 (A/H1N1pdm) pandemic of 2009-2010 had a great impact on society. Objective: We analyzed data from the absentee survey, conducted in elementary schools of Oita City, to evaluate the A/H1N1pdm pandemic and to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0 ) of this novel strain. Method: We summarized the overall absentee data and calculated the cumulative infection rate. Then, we classified the data into 3 groups according to school size: small (<300 students), medium (300–600 students), and large (>600 students). Last, we estimated the R0 value by using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model. Results: Data from 60 schools and 27,403 students were analyzed. The overall cumulative infection rate was 44.4%. There were no significant differences among the grades, but the cumulative infection rate increased as the school size increased, being 37.7%, 44.4%, and 46.6% in the small, medium, and large school groups, respectively. The optimal R0 value was 1.33, comparable with that previously reported. The data from the absentee survey were reliable, with no missing values. Hence, the R0 derived from the SIR model closely reflected the observed R0 . The findings support previous reports that school children are most susceptible to A/H1N1pdm virus infection and suggest that the scale of an outbreak is associated with the size of the school. Conclusion: Our results provide further information about the A/H1N1pdm pandemic. We propose that an absentee survey should be implemented in the early stages of an epidemic, to prevent a pandemic.

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