Caution Is Needed When Using Niche Models to Infer Changes in Species Abundance: The Case of Two Sympatric Raptor Populations

Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models (ENMs) to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and Montagu’s harrier (Circus pygargus), surveyed in 1997 and 2017 in an upland moor area in northwestern Spain. The ENMs performed very well for both species (with area under the ROC curve and true skill statistic values of up to 0.9 and 0.75). The presence of both species was mainly correlated with heathlands, although the normalized difference water index derived from Landsat images was the most important for hen harrier, indicating a greater preference of this species for wet heaths and peat bogs. The findings showed that ENM-derived habitat suitability was significantly correlated with the species abundance, thus reinforcing the use of ENMs as a proxy for species abundance. However, the temporal variation in species abundance was not significantly explained by changes in habitat suitability predicted by the ENMs, indicating the need for caution when using these types of models to infer changes in population abundance.

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Cross-scale monitoring of habitat suitability changes using satellite time series and ecological niche models

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147172 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 147172

Author(s):

Salvador Arenas-Castro ◽

Neftalí Sillero

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Niche Models

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Ecological niche differentiation between Acanthodactylus micropholis and A. khamirensis (Sauria: Lacertidae) in southern Iran

Zoologia (Curitiba) ◽

10.3897/zoologia.36.e27357 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 36 ◽

pp. 1-5 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nastaran Heidari

Keyword(s):

Habitat Suitability ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Species Distribution Modeling ◽

Niche Overlap ◽

Niche Differentiation ◽

Valid Species ◽

Ecological Niches ◽

Species Differentiation ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Niche Models

Acanthodactylusmicropholis Heidari, Rastegar-Pouyani, Rastegar-Pouyani & Rajabizadeh, 2013 and A.khamirensis Blanford, 1874 are genetically and morphologically distinct, but their ecological differentiation has not previously been evaluated. The ecological niche models of these two sister species Acanthodactylus were reconstructed using climate and geographical data. Species distribution modeling for A.micropholis and A.khamirensis was used to make predictions and showed that most parts of southern and southeastern Iran are suitable for the distribution of both species. Habitat suitability was mostly dependent upon minimum temperature of the coldest month and seasonal precipitation for A.micropholis and A.khamirensis, respectively. Niche similarity tests (niche overlap and identity tests) were performed to evaluate species differentiation based on the ecological species criterion. Our results indicate that both species have different ecological niches and are significantly separated from each other. Therefore, our study corroborates previous analyses based on molecular and morphological evidences that suggested that A.micropholis and A.khamirensis were valid species.

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Characterisation of range restriction amongst the rare flora of Banded Ironstone Formation ranges in semiarid south-western Australia

Australian Journal of Botany ◽

10.1071/bt18111 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 67 (3) ◽

pp. 234 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

T. P. Robinson ◽

G. Di Virgilio ◽

D. Temple-Smith ◽

J. Hesford ◽

G. W. Wardell-Johnson

Keyword(s):

Habitat Suitability ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Endemic Plant ◽

Surface Hydrology ◽

Range Restriction ◽

Specialist Species ◽

Habitat Generalist ◽

Endemic Plant Species ◽

Niche Models

Banded Ironstone Formation (BIF) ranges feature numerous rare and endemic plant species. We tested whether non-occurrence in neighbouring ranges is due to habitat dissimilarity across five groups of proximal ranges for three sets of species (18 taxa). Set 1 comprised 15 BIF-specialist species centred on the Helena and Aurora Range (HAR); Set 2, of one BIF species endemic to Mt Jackson and Set 3, of two non-BIF species. All species were used as input into ecological niche models to determine the importance and behaviour of five environmental variables derived from 2m resolution LiDAR imagery over 1605km2, extrapolate habitat suitability and compare niche similarity. We hypothesised that if BIF species are not range-restricted, suitable habitat will be found on all five groups and variable importance and behaviour will be similar for Sets 1 and 2 but not for Set 3. Topographical control on surface hydrology is the most important predictive variable for most BIF species, with ruggedness and shade also important to species in Sets 1–2 but not Set 3, which either preferred flat plains or had no preference (habitat generalist). We conclude that habitat suitability is not range restrictive. Such endemism is more likely a result of stochasticity and limited seed dispersal.

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