scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Networks on a Multivariate Time Series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Jaydip Sen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modelled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of four years: 2015 – 2018. Based on the NIFTY data during 2015 – 2018, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the “Close” value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week, i.e., five days. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual “Close” values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Networks on a Multivariate Time Series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Jaydip Sen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modelled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of four years: 2015 – 2018. Based on the NIFTY data during 2015 – 2018, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the “Close” value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week, i.e., five days. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual “Close” values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen ◽  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Gourab Nath
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
The Other ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Other Hand

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modeled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using five deep learning-based regression models. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of December 29, 2014 to July 31, 2020. Based on the NIFTY data during December 29, 2014 to December 28, 2018, we build two regression models using <i>convolutional neural networks</i> (CNNs), and three regression models using <i>long-and-short-term memory</i> (LSTM) networks for predicting the <i>open</i> values of the NIFTY 50 index records for the period December 31, 2018 to July 31, 2020. We adopted a multi-step prediction technique with <i>walk-forward validation</i>. The parameters of the five deep learning models are optimized using the grid-search technique so that the validation losses of the models stabilize with an increasing number of epochs in the model training, and the training and validation accuracies converge. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all the proposed regression models. The results indicate that while both CNN and LSTM-based regression models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 <i>open</i> values, the CNN model that previous one week’s data as the input is the fastest in its execution. On the other hand, the encoder-decoder convolutional LSTM model uses the previous two weeks’ data as the input is found to be the most accurate in its forecasting results.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen ◽  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Abhishek Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the <i>efficient market hypothesis</i> believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. Researchers have also worked on technical analysis of stocks with a goal of identifying patterns in the stock price movements using advanced data mining techniques. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records from December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the <i>open</i> values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. Using the grid-searching technique, the hyperparameters of the LSTM models are optimized so that it is ensured that validation losses stabilize with the increasing number of epochs, and the convergence of the validation accuracy is achieved. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 <i>open</i> values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week's <i>open</i> value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen ◽  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Gourab Nath
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
The Other ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Other Hand

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modeled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using five deep learning-based regression models. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of December 29, 2014 to July 31, 2020. Based on the NIFTY data during December 29, 2014 to December 28, 2018, we build two regression models using <i>convolutional neural networks</i> (CNNs), and three regression models using <i>long-and-short-term memory</i> (LSTM) networks for predicting the <i>open</i> values of the NIFTY 50 index records for the period December 31, 2018 to July 31, 2020. We adopted a multi-step prediction technique with <i>walk-forward validation</i>. The parameters of the five deep learning models are optimized using the grid-search technique so that the validation losses of the models stabilize with an increasing number of epochs in the model training, and the training and validation accuracies converge. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all the proposed regression models. The results indicate that while both CNN and LSTM-based regression models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 <i>open</i> values, the CNN model that previous one week’s data as the input is the fastest in its execution. On the other hand, the encoder-decoder convolutional LSTM model uses the previous two weeks’ data as the input is found to be the most accurate in its forecasting results.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen ◽  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Abhishek Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the <i>efficient market hypothesis</i> believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. Researchers have also worked on technical analysis of stocks with a goal of identifying patterns in the stock price movements using advanced data mining techniques. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records from December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the <i>open</i> values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. Using the grid-searching technique, the hyperparameters of the LSTM models are optimized so that it is ensured that validation losses stabilize with the increasing number of epochs, and the convergence of the validation accuracy is achieved. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 <i>open</i> values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week's <i>open</i> value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

scholarly journals A Robust Predictive Model for Stock Price Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen ◽  
Tamal Datta Chaudhuri
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Functional Forms

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been the subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted accurately. On the other hand, there are propositions that have shown that, if appropriately modelled, stock prices can be predicted fairly accurately. The latter have focused on choice of variables, appropriate functional forms and techniques of forecasting. This work proposes a granular approach to stock price prediction by combining statistical and machine learning methods with some concepts that have been advanced in the literature on technical analysis. The objective of our work is to take 5 minute daily data on stock prices from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India and develop a forecasting framework for stock prices. Our contention is that such a granular approach can model the inherent dynamics and can be fine-tuned for immediate forecasting. Six different techniques including three regression-based approaches and three classification-based approaches are applied to model and predict stock price movement of two stocks listed in NSE - Tata Steel and Hero Moto. Extensive results have been provided on the performance of these forecasting techniques for both the stocks.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document