Potential Impacts of Future Urbanization and Sea Level Rise on Florida's Natural Resources

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing degradation to their form and function. Changing climatic conditions further compound the losses in biodiversity and ecosystem function. The state of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. Because Florida benefits from a multibillion-dollar income from natural resources tourism, these declines challenge the state's economy. In this study, we assessed the potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the state. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of urbanization, sprawling and compact, in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Under Florida's current trends in urbanization practices, projections indicate a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are implemented. Projections indicate that Coastal Uplands will experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%. Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida's natural resources with benefits to Florida's tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood protection and storm surge risk reduction.