Resolving the location of small intracontinental earthquakes using Open Access seismic and geodetic data: lessons from the 18 January 2017 mb 4.3, Niger, earthquake

A low-magnitude earthquake was recorded on January 18, 2017, in the T\'{e}n\'{e}r\'{e} desert in Niger. This intraplate region is exceptionally sparsely covered with seismic stations and the closest open seismic station, G.TAM in Algeria at a distance of approximately 600 km, was unusually and unfortunately not operational at the time of the event. Body-wave magnitude estimates range from $m_b 4.2$ to $m_b 4.6$ and both seismic location and magnitude constraints are dominated by stations at teleseismic distances. The seismic constraints are strengthened considerably by array stations of the International Monitoring System for verifying compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty. This event, with magnitude relevant to low-yield nuclear tests, provides a valuable validation of the detection and location procedure for small land-based seismic disturbances at significant distances. For seismologists not in the CTBT system, the event is problematic as data from many of the key stations are not openly available. We examine the uncertainty in published routinely-determined epicenters by performing multiple Bayesloc location estimates with published arrival times considering both all published arrival times and those from open stations only. This location exercise confirms lateral uncertainties in seismologically-derived location no smaller than 10 km. Coherence for InSAR in this region is exceptionally high, and allows us to confidently detect a displacement of the order 6 mm in the time-frame containing the earthquake, consistent with the seismic location estimates, and with a lateral length scale consistent with an earthquake of this size, allowing location constraint to within one rupture length ($\leq 5$ km) -- significantly reducing the lateral uncertainty compared with relying on seismological data only. Combining Open Access-only seismological and geodetic data, we precisely constrain the source location, and conclude that this earthquake likely had a shallow source. We then discuss potential ways to continue the integration of geodetic data in the calibration of seismological earthquake location.

Time-Independent Forecast Model For Large Crustal Earthquakes in Southwest Japan Using GNSS Data

In this study, we developed a regional likelihood model for crustal earthquakes using geodetic strain rate data from southwest Japan. First, smoothed strain rate distributions were estimated from continuous GNSS measurements. Second, we removed the elastic strain rate attributed to interplate coupling on the subducting plate boundary, including the observed strain rate, under the assumption that it is not attributed to permanent loading on crustal faults. We then converted the geodetic strain rates to seismic moment rates and calculated the 30-year probability for M ≥ 6 earthquakes in 0.2 × 0.2° cells, using a truncated Gutenberg–Richter law and time-independent Poisson process. Likelihood models developed using different conversion equations, seismogenic thicknesses, and rigidities were validated using the epicenters and moment distribution of historical earthquakes. The average seismic moment rate of crustal earthquakes recorded during 1583–2020 was only 13–20 % of the seismic moment rate converted from the geodetic data, which suggests that the observed geodetic strain rate includes considerable inelastic strain. Therefore, we introduced an empirical coefficient to calibrate the moment rate converted from geodetic data with the moment rate of the earthquakes. Several statistical scores and the Molchan diagram showed that all models could predict real earthquakes better than the reference model, in which earthquakes occur uniformly in space. Models using principal horizontal strain rates exhibited better predictive skill than those using the maximum horizontal shear strain rate. There was no significant difference in the predictive skill between uniform and variable distributions for seismogenic thickness and rigidity. The preferred models suggested high 30-year-probability in the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone and central Kyushu, exceeding 1% in more than half of the analyzed region. Model predictive skill was also verified by a prospective test using earthquakes recorded during 2010–2020. This study suggests that the proposed forecast model based on geodetic data can improve the regional likelihood model for crustal earthquakes in Japan in combination with other forecast models based on active faults and seismicity.

Analysis and Routing of Basic Parameters of Tasuj Earthquake (April 2013, Northwest of Iran) with an Emphasis on Geodetic Data, Foreshocks and Large Aftershocks

In the science of seismology, issues such as the study of tectonic seismic maps and the identification of the behavioural pattern of pre-earthquakes and aftershocks are among the cases that have been proposed as the basis of applied geological studies in recent decades. Accordingly, numerous studies and researches in this field have been carried out in different regions of the world. However, the results of these studies so far have not been able to meet the needs of this field in a practical and practical way, and in this regard, there is a need to provide practical approaches in this field. In order to realize this approach, there is a need for specialized research and case studies in this field in order to be able to present studies on earthquake risk reduction in an institutionalized and practical way by identifying practical patterns. In this study, the basis of the case study, considering the special characteristics of Tasuj earthquake as one of the important earthquakes according to the basic patterns that can be provided in this field for this earthquake has been considered. Also geodetic analysis of Tasuj fault and the other faults studied for estimation of accuracy this analysis for prediction of earthquake. The results of this study indicate that the fault causing the Tasuj earthquake, contrary to what is presented in the fault map of the region and previous reports and articles, is of the strike-slip type, which should be corrected. Also, the analysis of the behavioural pattern of geodetic data, foreshocks and aftershocks as a precursor shows that these patterns can be used in predicting major earthquakes and large aftershocks. To predict the time of large aftershocks in this study, three phases have been used, which are based on changes in depth to magnitude, changes in seismic quiescence to magnitude and depth changes.

Practical implementation of the use of GNSS RTK technologies for obtaining topographic and geodetic data

This paper analyzes the use of GNSS equipment when conducting topographic surveys. It was revealed that despite the presence of a large number of modern and high-precision GNSS receivers, nowadays, the regulatory and legal framework has established significant restrictions on the use of GNSS equipment when carrying out topographic and geodetic surveys. According to the current legislation, this equipment cannot accurately determine coordinates and heights on the ground. To prove the opposite, a scientific experiment was carried out, as a result of which it was found that modern GNSS receivers can more accurately determine coordinates and heights on the ground than modern total stations and electronic theodolites. Therefore, it is recommended to use the obtained data of the experiment as a basis for making changes to the regulatory framework.

Accuracy of Sentinel-1 PSI and SBAS InSAR Displacement Velocities against GNSS and Geodetic Leveling Monitoring Data

Correct use of multi-temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) datasets to complement geodetic surveying for geo-hazard applications requires rigorous assessment of their precision and accuracy. Published inter-comparisons are mostly limited to ground displacement estimates obtained from different algorithms belonging to the same family of InSAR approaches, either Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) or Small BAseline Subset (SBAS); and accuracy assessments are mainly focused on vertical displacements or based on few Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) or geodetic leveling points. To fill this demonstration gap, two years of Sentinel-1 SAR ascending and descending mode data are processed with both PSI and SBAS consolidated algorithms to extract vertical and horizontal displacement velocity datasets, whose accuracy is then assessed against a wealth of contextual geodetic data. These include permanent GNSS records, static GNSS benchmark repositioning, and geodetic leveling monitoring data that the National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (INEGI) of Mexico collected in 2014−2016 in the Aguascalientes Valley, where structurally-controlled land subsidence exhibits fast vertical rates (up to −150 mm/year) and a non-negligible east-west component (up to ±30 mm/year). Despite the temporal constraint of the data selected, the PSI-SBAS inter-comparison reveals standard deviation of 6 mm/year and 4 mm/year for the vertical and east-west rate differences, respectively, thus reassuring about the similarity between the two types of InSAR outputs. Accuracy assessment shows that the standard deviations in vertical velocity differences are 9−10 mm/year against GNSS benchmarks, and 8 mm/year against leveling data. Relative errors are below 20% for any locations subsiding faster than −15 mm/year. Differences in east-west velocity estimates against GNSS are on average −0.1 mm/year for PSI and +0.2 mm/year for SBAS, with standard deviations of 8 mm/year. When discrepancies are found between InSAR and geodetic data, these mostly occur at benchmarks located in proximity to the main normal faults, thus falling within the same SBAS ground pixel or closer to the same PSI target, regardless of whether they are in the footwall or hanging wall of the fault. Establishing new benchmarks at higher distances from the fault traces or exploiting higher resolution SAR scenes and/or InSAR datasets may improve the detection of the benchmarks and thus consolidate the statistics of the InSAR accuracy assessments.

Geodetic, hydrologic and seismological signals associated with precipitation and infiltration in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

<p>The Southern Alps of New Zealand is an actively deforming mountain range, along which collision between the Pacific and Australian plates is manifest as elevated topography, orographic weather, active contemporary deformation, and earthquakes. This thesis examines interactions between surface processes of meteorological and hydrological origin, the ground surface deformation, and processes within the seismogenic zone at depth. The two main objectives of the thesis are a better understanding of the reversible repetitive ground surface deformation in the central Southern Alps and the analysis of the evolution of the rate of microseismicity in the area to explore relationships between seismicity rates and the hydrologic cycle. Surface deformation in the central Southern Alps is characterised by a network of 19 continuous GPS stations located between the West Coast (west) and the Mackenzie Basin (east), and between Hokitika (north) to Haast (south). These show repetitive and reversible movements of up to ∼55mm on annual scales, on top of long-term plate motion, during a 17 year-long period. Stations in the high central Southern Alps exhibit the greatest annual variations, whereas others are more sensitive to changes following significant rain events. Data from 22 climate stations (including three measuring the snowpack), lake water levels and borehole pressure measurements, and numerical models of solid Earth tides and groundwater levels in bedrock fractures, are compared against geodetic data to examine whether these environmental factors can explain observed patterns in annual ground deformation. Reversible ground deformation in the central Southern Alps appears strongly correlated with shallow groundwater levels. Observed seasonal fluctuation and deformation after storm events can be explained by simple mathematical models of groundwater levels. As a corollary, local hydrological effects can be accounted for and ameliorated during preprocessing to reduce noise in geodetic data sets being analysed for tectonic purposes. Two catalogues of earthquakes (containing 38 909 and 89 474 events) in the area spanning the period 2008–2017 were built using a matched-filtered detection technique. The smaller catalogue is based on 211 template events, each of known focal mechanism, while the latter is based on 902 templates, not all of which have focal mechanisms, providing greater temporal resolution. Microseismicity data were examined in both time and frequency domains to explore relationships between seismicity rates and the hydrologic cycle. Microseismicity shows a pronounced seasonality in the central Southern Alps, with significantly more events detected during winter than during summer. These changes cannot be easily accounted for by either acquisition or analysis parameters. Two models of hydrologically-induced seasonal seismicity variations have been considered — surface water loading and deep groundwater circulation of meteoric fluids — but neither model fully explains the observations, and further work is required to explain them fully. An observed diurnal variation in earthquake detection rate is believed to originate mostly from instrumental effects, which should be accounted for in future seismological studies of earthquake occurrence in the central Southern Alps. Relationships and correlations observed between hydrological, geodetic, and seismological data from the central Southern Alps provide clear indications that surface processes exert at least some degree of influence on upper-crustal seismicity adjacent to the Alpine Fault.</p>

Geodetic, hydrologic and seismological signals associated with precipitation and infiltration in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

<p>The Southern Alps of New Zealand is an actively deforming mountain range, along which collision between the Pacific and Australian plates is manifest as elevated topography, orographic weather, active contemporary deformation, and earthquakes. This thesis examines interactions between surface processes of meteorological and hydrological origin, the ground surface deformation, and processes within the seismogenic zone at depth. The two main objectives of the thesis are a better understanding of the reversible repetitive ground surface deformation in the central Southern Alps and the analysis of the evolution of the rate of microseismicity in the area to explore relationships between seismicity rates and the hydrologic cycle. Surface deformation in the central Southern Alps is characterised by a network of 19 continuous GPS stations located between the West Coast (west) and the Mackenzie Basin (east), and between Hokitika (north) to Haast (south). These show repetitive and reversible movements of up to ∼55mm on annual scales, on top of long-term plate motion, during a 17 year-long period. Stations in the high central Southern Alps exhibit the greatest annual variations, whereas others are more sensitive to changes following significant rain events. Data from 22 climate stations (including three measuring the snowpack), lake water levels and borehole pressure measurements, and numerical models of solid Earth tides and groundwater levels in bedrock fractures, are compared against geodetic data to examine whether these environmental factors can explain observed patterns in annual ground deformation. Reversible ground deformation in the central Southern Alps appears strongly correlated with shallow groundwater levels. Observed seasonal fluctuation and deformation after storm events can be explained by simple mathematical models of groundwater levels. As a corollary, local hydrological effects can be accounted for and ameliorated during preprocessing to reduce noise in geodetic data sets being analysed for tectonic purposes. Two catalogues of earthquakes (containing 38 909 and 89 474 events) in the area spanning the period 2008–2017 were built using a matched-filtered detection technique. The smaller catalogue is based on 211 template events, each of known focal mechanism, while the latter is based on 902 templates, not all of which have focal mechanisms, providing greater temporal resolution. Microseismicity data were examined in both time and frequency domains to explore relationships between seismicity rates and the hydrologic cycle. Microseismicity shows a pronounced seasonality in the central Southern Alps, with significantly more events detected during winter than during summer. These changes cannot be easily accounted for by either acquisition or analysis parameters. Two models of hydrologically-induced seasonal seismicity variations have been considered — surface water loading and deep groundwater circulation of meteoric fluids — but neither model fully explains the observations, and further work is required to explain them fully. An observed diurnal variation in earthquake detection rate is believed to originate mostly from instrumental effects, which should be accounted for in future seismological studies of earthquake occurrence in the central Southern Alps. Relationships and correlations observed between hydrological, geodetic, and seismological data from the central Southern Alps provide clear indications that surface processes exert at least some degree of influence on upper-crustal seismicity adjacent to the Alpine Fault.</p>