Continuous-Time Markov Chain-Based Reliability Analysis for Future Cellular Networks

It is anticipated that the future cellular networks will consist of an ultra-dense deployment of complex heterogeneous Base Stations (BSs). Consequently, Self-Organizing Networks (SON) features are considered to be inevitable for efficient and reliable management of such a complex network. Given their unfathomable complexity, cellular networks are inherently prone to partial or complete cell outages due to hardware and/or software failures and parameter misconfiguration caused by human error, multivendor incompatibility or operational drift. Forthcoming cellular networks, vis-a-vis 5G are susceptible to even higher cell outage rates due to their higher parametric complexity and also due to potential conflicts among multiple SON functions. These realities pose a major challenge for reliable operation of future ultra-dense cellular networks in cost effective manner. In this paper, we present a stochastic analytical model to analyze the effects of arrival of faults in a cellular network. We exploit Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) with exponential distribution for failures and recovery times to model the reliability behavior of a BS. We leverage the developed model and subsequent analysis to propose an adaptive fault predictive framework. The proposed fault prediction framework can adapt the CTMC model by dynamically learning from past database of failures, and hence can reduce network recovery time thereby improving its reliability. Numerical results from three case studies, representing different types of network, are evaluated to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed analytical model.